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The answer to 'why now' is COVID. People in the west are already worn-out by the pandemic and are in no mood to engage in a new conflict. Putin has simply picke
by empressplay 5y ago
The answer to 'why now' is COVID. People in the west are already worn-out by the pandemic and are in no mood to engage in a new conflict. Putin has simply picked an advantageous moment to make his move.
Also China. Even Biden recognizes China is a problem and is making moves to attempt to manage them (renewed alliance with Australia, domestic manufacturing). China has likely made some guarantees to Russia with regards to its economic security, in exchange for seeing how the West puts up with its annexation of more of Ukrainian territory.
And there's the recent Ukrainian rumblings about wanting to take Crimea back, which certainly did not help matters. Speaking of which, Russians in Crimea have been expensive to supply, and I would point back to how we're all taxed because of COVID.
There are certainly other variables, but the timing is not random. Putin certainly has not suddenly 'gone crazy'.
- bbatha 5y ago> Putin certainly has not suddenly 'gone crazy'. I didn't mean to imply that. In fact I would say that if a theory relies on someone "going crazy" to explain the war its probably bunk. Putin has decades of proving himself to be an intelligent player. The Covid and China pivot is an interesting theory and it would make Mearshimer's argument a lot more compelling if he used current events to explain his theory.
- postingawayonhn 5y ago> The answer to 'why now' is COVID. People in the west are already worn-out by the pandemic and are in no mood to engage in a new conflict. That may have been what Putin thought but it seems like a terrible misunderstanding of western resolve on his part.