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I think the overall idea here is to piss off ordinary Russians enough to incentivize grassroots change.

paganel 5y ago
This also risks convincing the Russian population still on the fence about the whole thing that Putin is indeed right and the West does indeed have something against Russia and against ordinary Russians, this being an excellent example.
arcticbull 5y ago
I'm completely in support of those types of measures - especially sanctions - but cutting off the internet means the only information many Russians will have is domestic propaganda. The Russians have already cut off most non-state-TV stations and are instituting 15 year prison terms for derogatory remarks about the army. The young folks in Russia are using TikTok et al to find out what's really going on. These are the ones who will most be hurt. Those seeking the truth. We need those folks to have information so they can push back. This is why the BBC has a Tor service. [1] [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50150981 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50150981
- earleybird 5y ago
  The BBC also have shortwave - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30553243 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30553243
- bogomipz 5y ago
  >" ... but cutting off the internet means the only information many Russians will have is domestic propaganda." I think the Roskomnadzor watchdog has pretty much preemptively done that already though no? And it's not just social media but things like the BBC and Deutsche Welle etc. See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/russia-completely-blocks-access-to-facebook-and-twitter https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/russia-complet... and https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-rferl-bbc-facebook-google-twitter-blocked/31735597.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-rferl-bbc-facebook-google-twi...
  - miohtama 5y ago
    (Posted this earlier on another story.) If someone is going to disconnect Russia from Internet it is going to be Russian themselves, to limit the free flow of information that might be conflicting with the official truth. But like with the Chinese firewall, information find its way. Unless Russia wants to set itself back to 70s, they still need to access Github, Cloudflare, Amazon Cloudfront, etc. For the Russian IT business to work. It is going to be very inefficient to run anything with a pen and a paper. Software development and Internet were built on scientific principles, criticism, criticial thinking. This requires free flow of information. You cannot have one without the other, or you are going to end up with very inferior and inefficient software ecosystem.
    - justsomehnguy 5y ago
      > they still need to access Github, Cloudflare, Amazon Cloudfront, etc LOL. Do you really think the brass even know what it is? Putin doesn't even know how the modern mobile phones look, he didn't needed one for more than 20 years. To give you a slight idea how long it is - the famous Nokia 3310 was announced 9 months later than his (acting) presidency.
      - gspetr 5y ago
        They do: https://scooptrade.com/mintsifry-called-for-stimulating-the-transition-to-domestic-software/ https://scooptrade.com/mintsifry-called-for-stimulating-the-...
      - CRConrad 5y ago
        Well, at least that carries the immense benefit of him not incessantly tweeting on his smartphone even from the loo.
- exclusiv 5y ago
  > We need those folks to have information so they can push back. They can't. And they won't. Nice in theory but it's 2022 and here we are. Nobody is pushing back at all, in any meaningful way over there.
  - tiahura 5y ago
    Why can’t they? They threw out the commies in ‘91.
asats 5y ago
That would be organized how exactly? The internet is literally the only lifeline left right now to both get the true information about the recent events and to organize anti-government protests / help people that were already detained (8261 people as of today)
- exclusiv 5y ago
  The idea of protests is grossly underestimating Putin and the regime.
  - kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
    I also can't think of any examples where it worked - are there? I mean sanctions pushing a population into revolt?
    - exclusiv 5y ago
      Sanctions? Yes. Cold War
johndevor 5y ago
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
- nevermindiguess 5y ago
  I think you summarized that best.
- smt88 5y ago
  The purpose of the sanctions is for morale not to improve. Some Russian citizens were saying they don't support the war and have nothing to do with it. These sanctions make it personal for them in a non-violent, non-lethal way. We are trading Russians' convenience for Ukrainians' lives and, judging by Putin's tone today, it is working.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - lostmsu 5y ago
    What did Putin say today?
    - smt88 5y ago
      Some details here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/04/putin-russia-ukraine-normalization-sanctions/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/04/putin-russia... You will have to decide how to interpret it and whether he really believes it. It's not exactly a "let's de-escalate together" statement, but it certainly suggests sanctions are working.
lisnake 5y ago
I'm in Russia, an let me tell you, this does not have that effect at all. Most folks are just getting angry at collective west for all these bans, undeserved in their opinion. Big news: people are shortsighted and irrational, especially during crisis. I'm afraid this will just help Putin in uniting Russians in hatred.
- throw123123123 5y ago
  I think its pretty rational to blame your censor, not your censor's enemy.
  - javajosh 5y ago
    It's important to recognize that most people in the world are hicks. They are low information, and not rational in the way you mean it. (America is unusual because our hicks are rich, but we're mostly hicks, too.)
- waffleiron 5y ago
  I think the anger is also understandable, there have been so many illegal wars, interventions and invasions that didn’t cause all these bans. If I were in Russia I’d probably be easily swept up by that anger. It’d be hard to see how it’s fair when this is happening to you, even if it feels deserved from an outside perspective.
  - pastor_bob 5y ago
    Your sentiment is normally valid, but most Russians supposedly literally don't believe they're at war because of the content Putin feeds them. They think it's a small operation in the Donbas. It has nothing to do with being 'illegal' or whatever.
    - waffleiron 5y ago
      Do you have a (recent) source for that? I can’t imagine that to be true with the impact this war has had on daily life for Russian. The Russian government acknowledged that hundreds of soldiers died, publicly. That’s not a tiny mission.
justsomehnguy 5y ago
Ah, probably from the same people who think what the best way to prevent teenage pregnancies and STDs is to practice abstinence. As we know that works well too.
croes 5y ago
Has this ever worked?
- bogomipz 5y ago
  Yes. See "13 times that economic sanctions really worked" from this Washington Post article from 8 years ago when the questions of sanctions efficacy surfaced as a result of Putin's then invasion of Crimea: https://archive.ph/KPwJH https://archive.ph/KPwJH
  - tillinghast 5y ago
    So… begging the question. How did those sanctions go then?
    - bogomipz 5y ago
      The article clearly states what the outcomes were in each of the cases. It's literally a summary.
  - kelnos 5y ago
    It's interesting to note that the last successful thing they can come up with was 27 years ago. Sanctions (or threats of sanctions) have been wielded many times since then, and I guess they haven't been working all that well in more recent history? Also consider that sanctions as a result of the Crimea annexation haven't done anything. We're still here, today, 8 years later, and Putin is waging war again. The funny thing is that when I was looking for something about this, I found an article[0] that is generally positive about the effects of sanctions on Russia post-Crimea. Which I find kinda hilarious, because I think it really proves the point here that these sanctions don't actually work. The Russian economy slowed quite a bit, but it seems clear Putin and the oligarchs don't care all that much; the harm from those sanctions were disproportionately borne by regular Russian citizens, who were powerless to change the country's foreign policy. And, regardless, Russia is still in control of Crimea, and has not deterred Putin from this current war, so... that's a pretty big hint the sanctions did not do what they were supposed to. [0] https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2015/07/13/sanctions-after-crimea-have-they-worked/index.html https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2015/07/13/sanctio...
malandrew 5y ago
It's pretty hard to grass roots organize when you don't have internet though.
- javajosh 5y ago
  It's almost as if people need an option for mesh networking and communication software that works without requiring access to remote servers, especially beyond nation state boundaries.
throw123123123 5y ago
Is this an acceptable strategy? There's an ethical argument against it: "hey lets punish innocent civilians so they attack the real enemy" and a practical argument: "hey russia started the conflict, but didnt cut-off your internet, that was a US company that sees you as their enemy"
- gameswithgo 5y ago
  Man, you people who when babies are being exploded and apartment buildings attacked with missiles, an entire nation being invaded, who ask these questions about inconveniencing citizens of the attacking nation, are you even real? The next time the USA invades someone I welcome for you to destroy my financial life and drive my family and I into subsistence farming if it helps to stop us. You have my permissions. stop doing war.
  - xkqd 5y ago
    Ultimately if we need to pick sides, I’m going to apply pressure to the Russian citizens who will need to apply pressure to their own dictator. That’s kinda how war works. I think a lot of the folks criticizing you are in a position of privilege, or have an interesting perspective on what open warfare really means. Apply pressure to the country until you get the results you want. I can appreciate the focus on Putin and his cronies, but no one gets out untouched.
  - atlantas 5y ago
    Easy to say from the comfort of your keyboard and within a democracy that responds to polling data and protest. In Russia you'll get thrown in jail for 15 years. Also realize that statistically speaking you likely didn't dissent when we invaded Iraq. We were propagandized and consent was manufactured via the NYT and others. If your family was driven into poverty as a result, I don't believe you would have welcomed it whatsoever.
  - manigandham 5y ago
    > "stop doing war" That's not how war works. Have you considered that these actions might provoke and prolong greater conflict?
rdtsc 5y ago
Trying to think when this worked well. Iran and North Korea had sanctions imposed on them for quite a bit of time, and they seem to have a pretty stable leadership structure for years. Perhaps some of the colored revolutions or Arab Spring movements but not sure how much sanctions played into those... As long as Putin can re-interpret this as an external aggression from the $insert_pejorative West, and broadcast that better than Twitter, CNN, etc, I can see those sanctions having an opposite effect and further solidify his power. On the other hand, I can see attacking those who are closer to him being a lot more effective. His billionaire friends not being able to travel to south of France for vacation is a much more serious threat than a regular person who cannot use Apple Pay or watch Netflix any longer.
- bryanlarsen 5y ago
  The example everybody brings up is South Africa. The claim is that sanctions were instrumental against apartheid. It's hard to evaluate that claim.
  - rdtsc 5y ago
    That's a good example. Thanks for brining it up. I hadn't thought of it.
  - from 5y ago
    Studies have consistently shown that sanctions only result in a change in behavior of governments 30-35% of the time. Sanctions designed to cause regime change have an effectiveness even lower than that. Also worth noting that this effectiveness rate has been declining since the 90s. See: http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~cas86/GSDB_FKSYY.pdf http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~cas86/GSDB_FKSYY.pdf
analogdreams 5y ago
That requires a lot of confidence that the replacement will be better. I think this is a 'be careful what you wish for' scenario.
odessacubbage 5y ago
can anyone point to an instance where these kinds of sanctions actually lead to grassroots change?
kerneloftruth 5y ago
Grassroots change in an autocracy (dictatorship), where protest is banned and criticizing the leader can get you killed is a lot to ask for, much less expect, as a result. Such actions may just rally ordinary Russians against the sanctioners
- kelnos 5y ago
  And in fact that's pretty much what's been happening in Iran over the past few decades. I think we can expect Russia to be a bit different, but I'm not sure that difference will be enough to get your average Russian to direct their anger at Putin rather than the West.
kelnos 5y ago
Certainly this is not the same situation, and these are not the same places with the same government structure, but let's take a look at how well that worked in Iran: that is, it hasn't worked at all. Government propaganda has caused most Iranian citizens to blame the US & the West for sanctions, and support for their government seems strong. Of course Russia is a different situation, and there are already plenty of Russian citizens there protesting the war, but I find it a little hard to believe that peaceful protest works all that well in what is effectively a dictatorship. (Hell, consider how ineffective -- or at best, excruciatingly slow-acting -- anti-war protests have been in even the US since WWII.) I expect the only thing that could get Putin to stop would be his oligarch cronies getting financially destroyed to the point that they can't take it anymore. But it seems like they've been preparing for this for a while, and might not be hurt by sanctions as much as we'd expect. Regardless, if we assume that the oligarchs and government officials are the right people to target, broad-based measures that hurt regular Russians are just cruel and probably not that effective.
- themacguffinman 5y ago
  It doesn't really matter who the citizens blame, people really over-emphasize the revolutionary potential of sanctions but the far more important & practical purpose of sanctions is to limit state's economic and technological capability to continue its destructive behavior. Look at Iran now: a pariah state whose power has been effectively contained, limited in its ability to fund a substantial warchest or buy modern weapons & technology. It's currently working with the US on a new nuclear deal to ameliorate its heavy sanctions. Russia can look forward to a similar future. Military invasions cost a lot of resources, the current invasion is largely funded by European gas sales and a variety of foreign trade. Aside from weapons & tech, military morale is an important factor in combat effectiveness, but it's also affected by resource availability. A less resourced military is a less capable one. We're beyond just deterrence now. Russian citizens can blame everyone except Putin, it doesn't matter. What does matter is that when Putin's military lackeys draw up plans, when they threaten others, they do so with a fraction of the tech and resources they are used to. Let's see them bully a 21st century world with a 20th century economy.
coolso 5y ago
Yeah, generally speaking, when a foreign country screws you over, either directly or indirectly through a company based in said foreign country... you tend to hate the foreign country and its people, not your own country. Unless you already hate your own country (most people don't, outside of the American left).
kmeisthax 5y ago
They've been pissed off since Putin started this thing. The people aren't complicit here, they're just being overruled. Same for Belarus, too.
justnotworthit 5y ago
AKA, "Collective Punishment".
GameOfFrowns 5y ago
I rather see history repeating itself with the rise of Hitler as consequence of the excessively punitive treaty of Versailles after World War 1. At the risk of invoking Godwin's law, I wouldn't be surprised seeing Putin going fully fascist to hold together a Russia that's disintegrating.

This also risks convincing the Russian population still on the fence about the whole thing that Putin is indeed right and the West does indeed have something against Russia and against ordinary Russians, this being an excellent example.

arcticbull 5y ago

I'm completely in support of those types of measures - especially sanctions - but cutting off the internet means the only information many Russians will have is domestic propaganda. The Russians have already cut off most non-state-TV stations and are instituting 15 year prison terms for derogatory remarks about the army. The young folks in Russia are using TikTok et al to find out what's really going on. These are the ones who will most be hurt. Those seeking the truth. We need those folks to have information so they can push back. This is why the BBC has a Tor service. [1] [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50150981 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50150981

earleybird 5y ago
The BBC also have shortwave - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30553243 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30553243
bogomipz 5y ago
>" ... but cutting off the internet means the only information many Russians will have is domestic propaganda." I think the Roskomnadzor watchdog has pretty much preemptively done that already though no? And it's not just social media but things like the BBC and Deutsche Welle etc. See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/russia-completely-blocks-access-to-facebook-and-twitter https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/russia-complet... and https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-rferl-bbc-facebook-google-twitter-blocked/31735597.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-rferl-bbc-facebook-google-twi...
- miohtama 5y ago
  (Posted this earlier on another story.) If someone is going to disconnect Russia from Internet it is going to be Russian themselves, to limit the free flow of information that might be conflicting with the official truth. But like with the Chinese firewall, information find its way. Unless Russia wants to set itself back to 70s, they still need to access Github, Cloudflare, Amazon Cloudfront, etc. For the Russian IT business to work. It is going to be very inefficient to run anything with a pen and a paper. Software development and Internet were built on scientific principles, criticism, criticial thinking. This requires free flow of information. You cannot have one without the other, or you are going to end up with very inferior and inefficient software ecosystem.
  - justsomehnguy 5y ago
    > they still need to access Github, Cloudflare, Amazon Cloudfront, etc LOL. Do you really think the brass even know what it is? Putin doesn't even know how the modern mobile phones look, he didn't needed one for more than 20 years. To give you a slight idea how long it is - the famous Nokia 3310 was announced 9 months later than his (acting) presidency.
    - gspetr 5y ago
      They do: https://scooptrade.com/mintsifry-called-for-stimulating-the-transition-to-domestic-software/ https://scooptrade.com/mintsifry-called-for-stimulating-the-...
    - CRConrad 5y ago
      Well, at least that carries the immense benefit of him not incessantly tweeting on his smartphone even from the loo.
exclusiv 5y ago
> We need those folks to have information so they can push back. They can't. And they won't. Nice in theory but it's 2022 and here we are. Nobody is pushing back at all, in any meaningful way over there.
- tiahura 5y ago
  Why can’t they? They threw out the commies in ‘91.

asats 5y ago

That would be organized how exactly? The internet is literally the only lifeline left right now to both get the true information about the recent events and to organize anti-government protests / help people that were already detained (8261 people as of today)

exclusiv 5y ago
The idea of protests is grossly underestimating Putin and the regime.
- kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
  I also can't think of any examples where it worked - are there? I mean sanctions pushing a population into revolt?
  - exclusiv 5y ago
    Sanctions? Yes. Cold War

johndevor 5y ago

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

nevermindiguess 5y ago
I think you summarized that best.
smt88 5y ago
The purpose of the sanctions is for morale not to improve. Some Russian citizens were saying they don't support the war and have nothing to do with it. These sanctions make it personal for them in a non-violent, non-lethal way. We are trading Russians' convenience for Ukrainians' lives and, judging by Putin's tone today, it is working.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- lostmsu 5y ago
  What did Putin say today?
  - smt88 5y ago
    Some details here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/04/putin-russia-ukraine-normalization-sanctions/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/04/putin-russia... You will have to decide how to interpret it and whether he really believes it. It's not exactly a "let's de-escalate together" statement, but it certainly suggests sanctions are working.

lisnake 5y ago

I'm in Russia, an let me tell you, this does not have that effect at all. Most folks are just getting angry at collective west for all these bans, undeserved in their opinion. Big news: people are shortsighted and irrational, especially during crisis. I'm afraid this will just help Putin in uniting Russians in hatred.

throw123123123 5y ago
I think its pretty rational to blame your censor, not your censor's enemy.
- javajosh 5y ago
  It's important to recognize that most people in the world are hicks. They are low information, and not rational in the way you mean it. (America is unusual because our hicks are rich, but we're mostly hicks, too.)
waffleiron 5y ago
I think the anger is also understandable, there have been so many illegal wars, interventions and invasions that didn’t cause all these bans. If I were in Russia I’d probably be easily swept up by that anger. It’d be hard to see how it’s fair when this is happening to you, even if it feels deserved from an outside perspective.
- pastor_bob 5y ago
  Your sentiment is normally valid, but most Russians supposedly literally don't believe they're at war because of the content Putin feeds them. They think it's a small operation in the Donbas. It has nothing to do with being 'illegal' or whatever.
  - waffleiron 5y ago
    Do you have a (recent) source for that? I can’t imagine that to be true with the impact this war has had on daily life for Russian. The Russian government acknowledged that hundreds of soldiers died, publicly. That’s not a tiny mission.

justsomehnguy 5y ago

Ah, probably from the same people who think what the best way to prevent teenage pregnancies and STDs is to practice abstinence. As we know that works well too.

croes 5y ago

Has this ever worked?

bogomipz 5y ago
Yes. See "13 times that economic sanctions really worked" from this Washington Post article from 8 years ago when the questions of sanctions efficacy surfaced as a result of Putin's then invasion of Crimea: https://archive.ph/KPwJH https://archive.ph/KPwJH
- tillinghast 5y ago
  So… begging the question. How did those sanctions go then?
  - bogomipz 5y ago
    The article clearly states what the outcomes were in each of the cases. It's literally a summary.
- kelnos 5y ago
  It's interesting to note that the last successful thing they can come up with was 27 years ago. Sanctions (or threats of sanctions) have been wielded many times since then, and I guess they haven't been working all that well in more recent history? Also consider that sanctions as a result of the Crimea annexation haven't done anything. We're still here, today, 8 years later, and Putin is waging war again. The funny thing is that when I was looking for something about this, I found an article[0] that is generally positive about the effects of sanctions on Russia post-Crimea. Which I find kinda hilarious, because I think it really proves the point here that these sanctions don't actually work. The Russian economy slowed quite a bit, but it seems clear Putin and the oligarchs don't care all that much; the harm from those sanctions were disproportionately borne by regular Russian citizens, who were powerless to change the country's foreign policy. And, regardless, Russia is still in control of Crimea, and has not deterred Putin from this current war, so... that's a pretty big hint the sanctions did not do what they were supposed to. [0] https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2015/07/13/sanctions-after-crimea-have-they-worked/index.html https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2015/07/13/sanctio...

malandrew 5y ago

It's pretty hard to grass roots organize when you don't have internet though.

javajosh 5y ago
It's almost as if people need an option for mesh networking and communication software that works without requiring access to remote servers, especially beyond nation state boundaries.

throw123123123 5y ago

Is this an acceptable strategy? There's an ethical argument against it: "hey lets punish innocent civilians so they attack the real enemy" and a practical argument: "hey russia started the conflict, but didnt cut-off your internet, that was a US company that sees you as their enemy"

gameswithgo 5y ago
Man, you people who when babies are being exploded and apartment buildings attacked with missiles, an entire nation being invaded, who ask these questions about inconveniencing citizens of the attacking nation, are you even real? The next time the USA invades someone I welcome for you to destroy my financial life and drive my family and I into subsistence farming if it helps to stop us. You have my permissions. stop doing war.
- xkqd 5y ago
  Ultimately if we need to pick sides, I’m going to apply pressure to the Russian citizens who will need to apply pressure to their own dictator. That’s kinda how war works. I think a lot of the folks criticizing you are in a position of privilege, or have an interesting perspective on what open warfare really means. Apply pressure to the country until you get the results you want. I can appreciate the focus on Putin and his cronies, but no one gets out untouched.
- atlantas 5y ago
  Easy to say from the comfort of your keyboard and within a democracy that responds to polling data and protest. In Russia you'll get thrown in jail for 15 years. Also realize that statistically speaking you likely didn't dissent when we invaded Iraq. We were propagandized and consent was manufactured via the NYT and others. If your family was driven into poverty as a result, I don't believe you would have welcomed it whatsoever.
- manigandham 5y ago
  > "stop doing war" That's not how war works. Have you considered that these actions might provoke and prolong greater conflict?

rdtsc 5y ago

Trying to think when this worked well. Iran and North Korea had sanctions imposed on them for quite a bit of time, and they seem to have a pretty stable leadership structure for years. Perhaps some of the colored revolutions or Arab Spring movements but not sure how much sanctions played into those... As long as Putin can re-interpret this as an external aggression from the $insert_pejorative West, and broadcast that better than Twitter, CNN, etc, I can see those sanctions having an opposite effect and further solidify his power. On the other hand, I can see attacking those who are closer to him being a lot more effective. His billionaire friends not being able to travel to south of France for vacation is a much more serious threat than a regular person who cannot use Apple Pay or watch Netflix any longer.

bryanlarsen 5y ago
The example everybody brings up is South Africa. The claim is that sanctions were instrumental against apartheid. It's hard to evaluate that claim.
- rdtsc 5y ago
  That's a good example. Thanks for brining it up. I hadn't thought of it.
- from 5y ago
  Studies have consistently shown that sanctions only result in a change in behavior of governments 30-35% of the time. Sanctions designed to cause regime change have an effectiveness even lower than that. Also worth noting that this effectiveness rate has been declining since the 90s. See: http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~cas86/GSDB_FKSYY.pdf http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~cas86/GSDB_FKSYY.pdf

analogdreams 5y ago

That requires a lot of confidence that the replacement will be better. I think this is a 'be careful what you wish for' scenario.

odessacubbage 5y ago

can anyone point to an instance where these kinds of sanctions actually lead to grassroots change?

kerneloftruth 5y ago

Grassroots change in an autocracy (dictatorship), where protest is banned and criticizing the leader can get you killed is a lot to ask for, much less expect, as a result. Such actions may just rally ordinary Russians against the sanctioners

kelnos 5y ago
And in fact that's pretty much what's been happening in Iran over the past few decades. I think we can expect Russia to be a bit different, but I'm not sure that difference will be enough to get your average Russian to direct their anger at Putin rather than the West.

kelnos 5y ago

Certainly this is not the same situation, and these are not the same places with the same government structure, but let's take a look at how well that worked in Iran: that is, it hasn't worked at all. Government propaganda has caused most Iranian citizens to blame the US & the West for sanctions, and support for their government seems strong. Of course Russia is a different situation, and there are already plenty of Russian citizens there protesting the war, but I find it a little hard to believe that peaceful protest works all that well in what is effectively a dictatorship. (Hell, consider how ineffective -- or at best, excruciatingly slow-acting -- anti-war protests have been in even the US since WWII.) I expect the only thing that could get Putin to stop would be his oligarch cronies getting financially destroyed to the point that they can't take it anymore. But it seems like they've been preparing for this for a while, and might not be hurt by sanctions as much as we'd expect. Regardless, if we assume that the oligarchs and government officials are the right people to target, broad-based measures that hurt regular Russians are just cruel and probably not that effective.

themacguffinman 5y ago
It doesn't really matter who the citizens blame, people really over-emphasize the revolutionary potential of sanctions but the far more important & practical purpose of sanctions is to limit state's economic and technological capability to continue its destructive behavior. Look at Iran now: a pariah state whose power has been effectively contained, limited in its ability to fund a substantial warchest or buy modern weapons & technology. It's currently working with the US on a new nuclear deal to ameliorate its heavy sanctions. Russia can look forward to a similar future. Military invasions cost a lot of resources, the current invasion is largely funded by European gas sales and a variety of foreign trade. Aside from weapons & tech, military morale is an important factor in combat effectiveness, but it's also affected by resource availability. A less resourced military is a less capable one. We're beyond just deterrence now. Russian citizens can blame everyone except Putin, it doesn't matter. What does matter is that when Putin's military lackeys draw up plans, when they threaten others, they do so with a fraction of the tech and resources they are used to. Let's see them bully a 21st century world with a 20th century economy.

coolso 5y ago

Yeah, generally speaking, when a foreign country screws you over, either directly or indirectly through a company based in said foreign country... you tend to hate the foreign country and its people, not your own country. Unless you already hate your own country (most people don't, outside of the American left).

kmeisthax 5y ago

They've been pissed off since Putin started this thing. The people aren't complicit here, they're just being overruled. Same for Belarus, too.

justnotworthit 5y ago

AKA, "Collective Punishment".

GameOfFrowns 5y ago

I rather see history repeating itself with the rise of Hitler as consequence of the excessively punitive treaty of Versailles after World War 1. At the risk of invoking Godwin's law, I wouldn't be surprised seeing Putin going fully fascist to hold together a Russia that's disintegrating.