I think Mearsheimer is ignoring the other aspect of the China equation, which is that China is now watching a concerted reaction of NATO and friendly powers aga

I think Mearsheimer is ignoring the other aspect of the China equation, which is that China is now watching a concerted reaction of NATO and friendly powers against aggression in the Russian sphere of influence. China would review the US/NATO response differently if the US played the old strategy of setting "red lines" and allowing them to be crossed with minimal reaction. We still have yet to see how this goes but Chinese officials who would have wanted to attack Taiwan are probably watching this play out now. Russia has awoken a sleeping giant.