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> I suppose it just needs to do approximately as well as a human. From a practical/logical sense this is true, but I'm not sure it would work out that way. Peo

> I suppose it just needs to do approximately as well as a human. From a practical/logical sense this is true, but I'm not sure it would work out that way. People would never accept FSD cars with accident/injury rates comparable with humans. FSD would have to be at least 10x better than human drivers, maybe more. Psychologically we are much more risk averse to when not in control. It's why people are afraid of elevators but not stairs, despite a 50x difference in safety. Historically computers go from "barely able to do X", to "better than any human could ever be" very quickly. I'm with Carmack on this bet.

bombcar 5y ago
The more inserting thing to me is will people accept FSD cars that tell them "no"? For example, we're about to get freezing sleet here, and a FSD car may very well decide "this is an impossible situation to drive safely" and refuse to move. And it may very well be right; most people way overestimate how good they are at driving in very adverse conditions.
- sib 5y ago
  And what about when "Mom is in the backseat having a heart attack and we need to try to get to the hospital" is added to the equation?
  - bombcar 5y ago
    A “ambulance mode” could be added (and in fact might be nice once enough cars are FSD and can get out of the way). We already have things like this “what if I had a beer and need to drive mom to the hospital” say those with a enforced breathalyzer.
notahacker 5y ago
You can probably manage to have 10x less chance of a serious accident than the average human by being sober, calm, attentive and caring about braking distances anyway. "Approximately as well as a human", measured by a pool of human accidents dominated by serious driver failings is a pretty low bar.
ghostbrainalpha 5y ago
Elon said in a recent interview with Lex Friedman that they aren't shoot for 10x better than human drivers anymore. They are hoping to be 2x or 3x as good, and the amount of lives saved by that should be enough to influence lawmakers and the public.

bombcar 5y ago

The more inserting thing to me is will people accept FSD cars that tell them "no"? For example, we're about to get freezing sleet here, and a FSD car may very well decide "this is an impossible situation to drive safely" and refuse to move. And it may very well be right; most people way overestimate how good they are at driving in very adverse conditions.

sib 5y ago
And what about when "Mom is in the backseat having a heart attack and we need to try to get to the hospital" is added to the equation?
- bombcar 5y ago
  A “ambulance mode” could be added (and in fact might be nice once enough cars are FSD and can get out of the way). We already have things like this “what if I had a beer and need to drive mom to the hospital” say those with a enforced breathalyzer.

notahacker 5y ago

You can probably manage to have 10x less chance of a serious accident than the average human by being sober, calm, attentive and caring about braking distances anyway. "Approximately as well as a human", measured by a pool of human accidents dominated by serious driver failings is a pretty low bar.

ghostbrainalpha 5y ago

Elon said in a recent interview with Lex Friedman that they aren't shoot for 10x better than human drivers anymore. They are hoping to be 2x or 3x as good, and the amount of lives saved by that should be enough to influence lawmakers and the public.