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As someone who has worked on self driving for a few years, and holds some patents in the space - I do not feel at all qualified to make a guess. It is always a
by voz_ 5y ago
As someone who has worked on self driving for a few years, and holds some patents in the space - I do not feel at all qualified to make a guess. It is always a little odd to me, then, to see how many folks are. Can we all tone down the confidence? Skepticism is healthy, but armchair expert-ing is not.
Carmack is a genius, and 8 years is a long time. If we look at what cruise is doing in SF, it certainly does not seem impossible.
- NeoVeles 5y agoI like that people are seeing this as 8 years from now when the original bet was from 2003. That there is still a reasonable chance that this could happen by 2030 and by that point was predicted 27 years in advanced. It will just add to the Carmack myth if it goes well. Personally I'm not sure we will see it but there is nothing that jumps out and says that it is impossible at the same time. 8 years ago I would have said it was a no brainer that we would be there, nowadays not so much. It feels like with a lot of things, the last 10% takes 90% of the time. I have no candle in the game and am an arm chair speculator at best, but it is fun to wonder. Let just agree to reconvene on this in 8 years time. It isn't that far away.
- austinprete 5y agoWait where did that “original bet was from 2003” fact come from? Atwood’s post doesn’t mention 2003 at all, and looking at Carmack’s twitter thread didn’t bring anything up for me either.
- HellDunkel 5y agoIts a fun bet and even Carmack was caught by surprise when realtime raytracing came along. He was wrong then and he was also the first to admit it.