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Trailer trash or not, sometimes it takes the kid to point out the nudity of the emperor. This hick from Indiana would take Atwood's side of the bet against any
by mikestew 5y ago
Trailer trash or not, sometimes it takes the kid to point out the nudity of the emperor. This hick from Indiana would take Atwood's side of the bet against any that care to pony up the money for the other side. The only thing about this that surprises me is that this post isn't from, like, five years ago. But Carmack took this bet within the past week? I just don't think we have the evidence to suggest this is realistic, and plenty to suggest that it's a long way off. We do seem to have the evidence that if it happens, it probably won't be Tesla doing it.
EDIT: ah, perhaps Carmack knows better and is simply willing to write off $10K for the lulz (from the TFA): I'd like to thank John for suggesting this friendly wager as a fun way to generate STEM publicity.
- md2020 5y agoWe don’t at all have evidence that Tesla can’t do Level 5 within the timeframe of this bet. Tesla is the farthest along of anyone who’s trying self-driving. Waymo and Cruise are geofenced, and still don’t work much better than Tesla. Aside from those, Comma.ai is doing seriously impressive stuff (sneaking up on Tesla tbh) on a way, way smaller budget, with less hardware, and notably, they’re going for a vision-only stack this year. Judging by what Comma’s been able to accomplish with basically smartphone hardware (maybe one step up from that), I’d be shocked if Carmack loses this.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- geohot 5y agoPresident of comma.ai here. I'd bet against L5 by 2030.
- georgewsinger 5y agoMight be misremembering, but IIRC you predicted L5 by 2030 on one of your earlier livestreams? Or was that L3/L4? Did you change your mind?