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With NATO unable to intervene militarily due to the threat of nuclear war, it initially looked like Ukraine was on its own. Once again, the Russian bear would

by beloch 5y ago

With NATO unable to intervene militarily due to the threat of nuclear war, it initially looked like Ukraine was on its own. Once again, the Russian bear would do as it wills. However, coordinated sanctions backed by the crucial will to take an economic hit if necessary have made it possible that, if it the bear cannot be fought, it might instead be fenced in and driven back with starvation. Germany is still importing Russian oil, but less of it. Do they and the EU have the will and the coordination to turn off Russia's last pipelines of money for munitions? If the West can tame the bear without fighting it, that will be a huge win for Western diplomacy. It will prove that the post WWII world order can do what it was designed to do. It will prove that its possible to tamp down the aggression of bad actors without threatening the world with nuclear war. If the West fails in this and either lets Ukraine fall or decides to roll the dice and intervene militarily, then the future security of the world is going to take a big hit. The bear must be tamed, but without war. If you're in Germany, tell your government to ban Russian oil. This will hurt Germany, but could be the key difference that keeps nuclear conflict off the table.

croes 5y ago
>Germany is still importing Russian oil Like the USA > you're in Germany, tell your government to ban Russian oil. This will hurt Germany. And Russia would sell to China. So Germany hurts itself and Russia doesn't care
- beloch 5y ago
  The U.S. produces more oil than they consume and are sitting next to massive export capacity in Canada too. Biden has no excuses here. Build some damned infrastructure and get off Russian oil. Russia does vastly more trade with the EU than China. Even if China continues to do nothing, that doesn't mean demand for Russian goods will suddenly undergo a massive increase in China. Supply will exceed demand, prices will fall, and Russia will have less money for bombs.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    You do know that Russia isn't buying arms and ammunitions, it's producing them, domestically. Throwing the economy at that can make a lot or arms before the lack of hard currency from oil and gas sales slows that down.
  - croes 5y ago
    That's even worse. The US doesn't need the oil from russia but still buys it. Europe is more dependent. So everybody wants from Europe to hurt itself but at the same time the US is allowed to needlessly buy oil from Russia.
- birdyrooster 5y ago
  Bruh we import 3% from Russia and we can turn it off instantly
  - croes 5y ago
    That's even worse. So they buy even if they didn't need to.
    - birdyrooster 5y ago
      It's not worse, it's slightly better because if it was larger we wouldn't be able to easily turn it off and the amount of money going to Russia would be greater.
      - HKH2 5y ago
        I think they mean it's worse morally.
        birdyrooster 5y ago
        Well, it wasn't worse morally because we cut our purchase of Russian petroleum yesterday. Who was worse? The British, who will need until the end of 2022 to end their contracts with Russia.
- Eldt 5y ago
  So Germany hurts itself in the short term so they can't be hurt worse by Russia at a later stage
- raverbashing 5y ago
  Yes, let them sell to China. Let them get paid in Chinese currency.
- zepearl 5y ago
  > And Russia would sell to China. So Germany hurts itself and Russia doesn't care Russia would probably sell to China (not sure about the added complexity involving currencies => probably depends on the goods that Russia could buy from China), the question is probably how much of it China would buy & when (e.g. existing contracts with other parties, potential negative impact on foreign public relations, not sure if oil quality plays a role for certain types of consumptions, etc...). Currently it looks like that Germans and probably all other european countries (why do we always end up talking only about Germany? Are other EU countries that much less relevant?) would be willing to be "hurt themselves" by paying more in/directly (I guess something similar to the whole blood-diamonds theme, but in this case it's more direct), I guess that the question is "how much more". Maybe if most of the countries are impacted the same way and therefore there aren't major "hotspots" that would have access to a low price (and therefore boosting their lower-cost production) then the only impact would be a little bit of spread inflation? EDIT: forgot to mention that the price of oil from Russia "urals" is currently as well increasing, but less, as it's detaching itself from the reference "brent" ( https://ibb.co/mXGf5XX https://ibb.co/mXGf5XX ) because of less people/companies/countries willing to buy it (because of inability to pay for it because of the various sanctions, and/or because of bad public relations that that would generate).
- q1w2 5y ago
  Russia cannot export to China so easily. That over-land route east does not have sufficient pipeline and is not nearly as profitable. Selling to China is a huge profit reduction for Russia.
hef19898 5y ago
If Putin can be tamed without a war between Russia and NATO depends to a large degree on Putin now. EDIT: I had this discusion a couple of times now, consensus: As long as invoices are paid, transportation is avaialable, neither party (customer, supplier, banks,...) nor product are on a sanctions list or under embargo you continue to respect your existing contracts and obligations and continue business. Things like oil and gas have been excluded from any snactions (last I know, things are changing incredibly fast...).
thawaya3113 5y ago
Europe have the advantage of time. A few weeks in it’s gonna get warm and the need for Russian gas will drop dramatically. Especially at the consumer/voting public level. That will give Europe another 8-9 months to find alternatives. The only alternatives that are available in that timeline are gonna be a massive ramp up of wind/solar and possibly restarting expensive coal operations. And energy efficiency, which I suspect governments in Europe are gonna bring in a raft of policies to emphasize. I suspect they will go in big for renewables and then try and fill in any gaps with coal. Those 9 months also give the US time to ramp up their gas exports to Europe. Cutting off energy imports from Russia right now wouldn’t just be shooting them selves in the foot, it will remove the last piece of leverage the Europeans have against Putin. The Ukraine invasion isn’t likely to involve NATO troops and so needs to end at the negotiating table, at which time Europe needs the stick of imposing further pain by ending energy imports.
zozbot234 5y ago
You can say anything about Putin, but at least he knows plenty about taming bears. Maybe we should ask him for help!

by beloch 5y ago

croes 5y ago

>Germany is still importing Russian oil Like the USA > you're in Germany, tell your government to ban Russian oil. This will hurt Germany. And Russia would sell to China. So Germany hurts itself and Russia doesn't care

beloch 5y ago
The U.S. produces more oil than they consume and are sitting next to massive export capacity in Canada too. Biden has no excuses here. Build some damned infrastructure and get off Russian oil. Russia does vastly more trade with the EU than China. Even if China continues to do nothing, that doesn't mean demand for Russian goods will suddenly undergo a massive increase in China. Supply will exceed demand, prices will fall, and Russia will have less money for bombs.
- hef19898 5y ago
  You do know that Russia isn't buying arms and ammunitions, it's producing them, domestically. Throwing the economy at that can make a lot or arms before the lack of hard currency from oil and gas sales slows that down.
- croes 5y ago
  That's even worse. The US doesn't need the oil from russia but still buys it. Europe is more dependent. So everybody wants from Europe to hurt itself but at the same time the US is allowed to needlessly buy oil from Russia.
birdyrooster 5y ago
Bruh we import 3% from Russia and we can turn it off instantly
- croes 5y ago
  That's even worse. So they buy even if they didn't need to.
  - birdyrooster 5y ago
    It's not worse, it's slightly better because if it was larger we wouldn't be able to easily turn it off and the amount of money going to Russia would be greater.
    - HKH2 5y ago
      I think they mean it's worse morally.
      - birdyrooster 5y ago
        Well, it wasn't worse morally because we cut our purchase of Russian petroleum yesterday. Who was worse? The British, who will need until the end of 2022 to end their contracts with Russia.
Eldt 5y ago
So Germany hurts itself in the short term so they can't be hurt worse by Russia at a later stage
raverbashing 5y ago
Yes, let them sell to China. Let them get paid in Chinese currency.
zepearl 5y ago
> And Russia would sell to China. So Germany hurts itself and Russia doesn't care Russia would probably sell to China (not sure about the added complexity involving currencies => probably depends on the goods that Russia could buy from China), the question is probably how much of it China would buy & when (e.g. existing contracts with other parties, potential negative impact on foreign public relations, not sure if oil quality plays a role for certain types of consumptions, etc...). Currently it looks like that Germans and probably all other european countries (why do we always end up talking only about Germany? Are other EU countries that much less relevant?) would be willing to be "hurt themselves" by paying more in/directly (I guess something similar to the whole blood-diamonds theme, but in this case it's more direct), I guess that the question is "how much more". Maybe if most of the countries are impacted the same way and therefore there aren't major "hotspots" that would have access to a low price (and therefore boosting their lower-cost production) then the only impact would be a little bit of spread inflation? EDIT: forgot to mention that the price of oil from Russia "urals" is currently as well increasing, but less, as it's detaching itself from the reference "brent" ( https://ibb.co/mXGf5XX https://ibb.co/mXGf5XX ) because of less people/companies/countries willing to buy it (because of inability to pay for it because of the various sanctions, and/or because of bad public relations that that would generate).
q1w2 5y ago
Russia cannot export to China so easily. That over-land route east does not have sufficient pipeline and is not nearly as profitable. Selling to China is a huge profit reduction for Russia.

hef19898 5y ago

If Putin can be tamed without a war between Russia and NATO depends to a large degree on Putin now. EDIT: I had this discusion a couple of times now, consensus: As long as invoices are paid, transportation is avaialable, neither party (customer, supplier, banks,...) nor product are on a sanctions list or under embargo you continue to respect your existing contracts and obligations and continue business. Things like oil and gas have been excluded from any snactions (last I know, things are changing incredibly fast...).

thawaya3113 5y ago

Europe have the advantage of time. A few weeks in it’s gonna get warm and the need for Russian gas will drop dramatically. Especially at the consumer/voting public level. That will give Europe another 8-9 months to find alternatives. The only alternatives that are available in that timeline are gonna be a massive ramp up of wind/solar and possibly restarting expensive coal operations. And energy efficiency, which I suspect governments in Europe are gonna bring in a raft of policies to emphasize. I suspect they will go in big for renewables and then try and fill in any gaps with coal. Those 9 months also give the US time to ramp up their gas exports to Europe. Cutting off energy imports from Russia right now wouldn’t just be shooting them selves in the foot, it will remove the last piece of leverage the Europeans have against Putin. The Ukraine invasion isn’t likely to involve NATO troops and so needs to end at the negotiating table, at which time Europe needs the stick of imposing further pain by ending energy imports.

zozbot234 5y ago

You can say anything about Putin, but at least he knows plenty about taming bears. Maybe we should ask him for help!