7 ms·

With war at its doors, Europe discovers a capacity for action

40 points by jcfrei 5y ago

codethief 5y ago
Non-paywalled link: https://archive.ph/JKwMw https://archive.ph/JKwMw
imwillofficial 5y ago
I come to a different conclusion. As this situation has unfolded, we’ve seen waffling on important issues, such as Germany helping the Ukraine at all, blown promises, such as the planes that never got to the Ukraine, and weapons support that is too little too late. I see the same Europe as always. Conflicted in direction, visionless in strategy, and slow in implementation.
- hef19898 5y ago
  Well, the war is merely a week old. The changes that happened aince are profound. And the EU did deliver thousands of AA and Anti-tank missiles. Sure, loads of those are basically Cold War surplus. But deliver they did, figuring out deliveries of weapons that cannot be packed on a truck is different, just look at the length the US had to ge before lend lease was passed to get planes cross the Canadian border. I don't think I can remember such a unified Europe in my adult life. EDIT: NATO dod sends tons of help before, mostly money. It's fair to assume that money wasn't spend on new smartphones for everyone.
  - yardie 5y ago
    President Biden has been sounding the alarm for a month, "Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine". Literally none of the EU nor NATO members did much until they literally started driving the tanks in. Russia was trying to convince the world they were simply doing military exercises near the Russia/Ukraine border and most of the EU actually believed it!
    - hef19898 5y ago
      You really think that? Not even in the background, while readying for the inevitable? It wasn't public or covered by the news, sure. But NATO and the EU did prepare. Just just not openly, because that could have pissed of Putin, and there might still have been the chance to prevent this war.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > President Biden has been sounding the alarm for a month The White House has been doing that for, at least, approximately 3 months; it's been since early December (maybe even earlier). Here’s the Dec. 7 Press Briefing where it is the main issue: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/12/07/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-and-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-december-7-2021/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/202... > Literally none of the EU nor NATO members did much until they literally started driving the tanks in. That's very much not true, which is why they were able to do quite a lot right away when the invasion happened despite all the diplomatic efforts to dissuade it.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > NATO dod sends tons of help before, mostly money. It's fair to assume that money wasn't spend on new smartphones for everyone. With a lot of Western (mostly NATO/EU members, not all via NATO or EU) money and training, Ukraine has, IIRC, doubled the size of and significantly modernized it's military since the Russian invasion began in 2014.
- sdoering 5y ago
  While we also, additionally use the media frenzy to quietly either bury other topics or do implement laws that would otherwise create a big outcry. Like throwing money at energy companies to keep nuclear power plants running longer while already having thrown money at them for over a decade for closing down these plants. I am all for becoming more energy independent. But this is just something I can't wrap my mind around.
- koshergweilo 5y ago
  Although I agree that weapons support could have been done earlier, you must concede that the western response has been an order of magnitude larger than what happened in 2014. A simple look at the value of the Ruble can confirm this.
- raverbashing 5y ago
  As opposed to US and especially UK sanctions which were mild at best?
beloch 5y ago
With NATO unable to intervene militarily due to the threat of nuclear war, it initially looked like Ukraine was on its own. Once again, the Russian bear would do as it wills. However, coordinated sanctions backed by the crucial will to take an economic hit if necessary have made it possible that, if it the bear cannot be fought, it might instead be fenced in and driven back with starvation. Germany is still importing Russian oil, but less of it. Do they and the EU have the will and the coordination to turn off Russia's last pipelines of money for munitions? If the West can tame the bear without fighting it, that will be a huge win for Western diplomacy. It will prove that the post WWII world order can do what it was designed to do. It will prove that its possible to tamp down the aggression of bad actors without threatening the world with nuclear war. If the West fails in this and either lets Ukraine fall or decides to roll the dice and intervene militarily, then the future security of the world is going to take a big hit. The bear must be tamed, but without war. If you're in Germany, tell your government to ban Russian oil. This will hurt Germany, but could be the key difference that keeps nuclear conflict off the table.
- croes 5y ago
  >Germany is still importing Russian oil Like the USA > you're in Germany, tell your government to ban Russian oil. This will hurt Germany. And Russia would sell to China. So Germany hurts itself and Russia doesn't care
  - beloch 5y ago
    The U.S. produces more oil than they consume and are sitting next to massive export capacity in Canada too. Biden has no excuses here. Build some damned infrastructure and get off Russian oil. Russia does vastly more trade with the EU than China. Even if China continues to do nothing, that doesn't mean demand for Russian goods will suddenly undergo a massive increase in China. Supply will exceed demand, prices will fall, and Russia will have less money for bombs.
    - hef19898 5y ago
      You do know that Russia isn't buying arms and ammunitions, it's producing them, domestically. Throwing the economy at that can make a lot or arms before the lack of hard currency from oil and gas sales slows that down.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
vincentmarle 5y ago
European politics is a textbook example of the Shock Doctrine [1]: they will not do anything unless they're forced to do so. Which unfortunately often means too little, too late. [1] https://tsd.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine.html https://tsd.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine.html
- zegerjan 5y ago
  Interesting take, especially if you factor in action on climate change. The US is unable to get anything done, while the EU has a track record of getting results.
Barrera 5y ago
> ... Yet a Wende—a watershed, a turning-point, the crossing of a Rubicon—is a big, important, intimidating thing. ... The author might want to review things that happened in the US immediately after 9/11. Action, yes, but in almost every case exactly the wrong actions were agreed to in short order and executed. Both parties, united as one. Just look at all the unity! Maybe out of this tragedy will emerge a new sense of cooperation. We're still paying the price for that fever-induced debacle. > This is heart-warming stuff. For me it's spine-tingling.
croes 5y ago
The most interesting part is that Switzerland gave up its neutrality, something they didn't even do in World War II.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Even Switzerland does more business with the rest of the world than with Russia.
- Gud 5y ago
  Neutral doesn’t mean taking no action though. It just means they’re not part of a broader alliance. Switzerland can take any action they wish
  - croes 5y ago
    Now they are part. And neutrality has a lot do with perception by others https://weltwoche-ch.translate.goog/daily/fuer-das-ausland-hat-die-schweiz-ihre-neutralitaet-aufgegeben-das-hat-konsequenzen/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp https://weltwoche-ch.translate.goog/daily/fuer-das-ausland-h...
Overtonwindow 5y ago
Europe seems to turn a blind eye to the former Soviet bloc states, but perhaps Ukraine has showed them that they could be next. I’ve always found it extremely frustrating by how little Europe seems to do to support its neighbors instead pushing the US to intervene. Some point the European Union has to grow a spine and stop thinking America’s going to bail them out of every conflict.
- hef19898 5y ago
  The other way to look at that is that the US needed NATO and the Coaltion of the Willing in Iraq and Afghanistan. The EU is a economic and political thing, not a military one.
drewcoo 5y ago
> The eu, at its heart a “peace project”, now dabbles in the vocabulary of war. What garbage! It's a political entity. Von Clausewitz had something to say about war and politics . . . https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/67848.Carl_von_Clausewitz https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/67848.Carl_von_Claus...
- bklaasen 5y ago
  It started as an economic project after WWII explicitly to foster peace between France and Germany: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Coal_and_Steel_Community https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Coal_and_Steel_Comm...
icare_1er 5y ago
It's not particularly European. The whole planet is pretty much aligned on the sanctions. South Korea is not part of the EU. Nor is Switzerland.

40 points by jcfrei 5y ago

Non-paywalled link: https://archive.ph/JKwMw https://archive.ph/JKwMw

I come to a different conclusion. As this situation has unfolded, we’ve seen waffling on important issues, such as Germany helping the Ukraine at all, blown promises, such as the planes that never got to the Ukraine, and weapons support that is too little too late. I see the same Europe as always. Conflicted in direction, visionless in strategy, and slow in implementation.

hef19898 5y ago
Well, the war is merely a week old. The changes that happened aince are profound. And the EU did deliver thousands of AA and Anti-tank missiles. Sure, loads of those are basically Cold War surplus. But deliver they did, figuring out deliveries of weapons that cannot be packed on a truck is different, just look at the length the US had to ge before lend lease was passed to get planes cross the Canadian border. I don't think I can remember such a unified Europe in my adult life. EDIT: NATO dod sends tons of help before, mostly money. It's fair to assume that money wasn't spend on new smartphones for everyone.
- yardie 5y ago
  President Biden has been sounding the alarm for a month, "Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine". Literally none of the EU nor NATO members did much until they literally started driving the tanks in. Russia was trying to convince the world they were simply doing military exercises near the Russia/Ukraine border and most of the EU actually believed it!
  - hef19898 5y ago
    You really think that? Not even in the background, while readying for the inevitable? It wasn't public or covered by the news, sure. But NATO and the EU did prepare. Just just not openly, because that could have pissed of Putin, and there might still have been the chance to prevent this war.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > President Biden has been sounding the alarm for a month The White House has been doing that for, at least, approximately 3 months; it's been since early December (maybe even earlier). Here’s the Dec. 7 Press Briefing where it is the main issue: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/12/07/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-and-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-december-7-2021/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/202... > Literally none of the EU nor NATO members did much until they literally started driving the tanks in. That's very much not true, which is why they were able to do quite a lot right away when the invasion happened despite all the diplomatic efforts to dissuade it.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > NATO dod sends tons of help before, mostly money. It's fair to assume that money wasn't spend on new smartphones for everyone. With a lot of Western (mostly NATO/EU members, not all via NATO or EU) money and training, Ukraine has, IIRC, doubled the size of and significantly modernized it's military since the Russian invasion began in 2014.
sdoering 5y ago
While we also, additionally use the media frenzy to quietly either bury other topics or do implement laws that would otherwise create a big outcry. Like throwing money at energy companies to keep nuclear power plants running longer while already having thrown money at them for over a decade for closing down these plants. I am all for becoming more energy independent. But this is just something I can't wrap my mind around.
koshergweilo 5y ago
Although I agree that weapons support could have been done earlier, you must concede that the western response has been an order of magnitude larger than what happened in 2014. A simple look at the value of the Ruble can confirm this.
raverbashing 5y ago
As opposed to US and especially UK sanctions which were mild at best?

beloch 5y ago

With NATO unable to intervene militarily due to the threat of nuclear war, it initially looked like Ukraine was on its own. Once again, the Russian bear would do as it wills. However, coordinated sanctions backed by the crucial will to take an economic hit if necessary have made it possible that, if it the bear cannot be fought, it might instead be fenced in and driven back with starvation. Germany is still importing Russian oil, but less of it. Do they and the EU have the will and the coordination to turn off Russia's last pipelines of money for munitions? If the West can tame the bear without fighting it, that will be a huge win for Western diplomacy. It will prove that the post WWII world order can do what it was designed to do. It will prove that its possible to tamp down the aggression of bad actors without threatening the world with nuclear war. If the West fails in this and either lets Ukraine fall or decides to roll the dice and intervene militarily, then the future security of the world is going to take a big hit. The bear must be tamed, but without war. If you're in Germany, tell your government to ban Russian oil. This will hurt Germany, but could be the key difference that keeps nuclear conflict off the table.

croes 5y ago
>Germany is still importing Russian oil Like the USA > you're in Germany, tell your government to ban Russian oil. This will hurt Germany. And Russia would sell to China. So Germany hurts itself and Russia doesn't care
- beloch 5y ago
  The U.S. produces more oil than they consume and are sitting next to massive export capacity in Canada too. Biden has no excuses here. Build some damned infrastructure and get off Russian oil. Russia does vastly more trade with the EU than China. Even if China continues to do nothing, that doesn't mean demand for Russian goods will suddenly undergo a massive increase in China. Supply will exceed demand, prices will fall, and Russia will have less money for bombs.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    You do know that Russia isn't buying arms and ammunitions, it's producing them, domestically. Throwing the economy at that can make a lot or arms before the lack of hard currency from oil and gas sales slows that down.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

vincentmarle 5y ago

European politics is a textbook example of the Shock Doctrine [1]: they will not do anything unless they're forced to do so. Which unfortunately often means too little, too late. [1] https://tsd.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine.html https://tsd.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine.html

zegerjan 5y ago
Interesting take, especially if you factor in action on climate change. The US is unable to get anything done, while the EU has a track record of getting results.

Barrera 5y ago

> ... Yet a Wende—a watershed, a turning-point, the crossing of a Rubicon—is a big, important, intimidating thing. ... The author might want to review things that happened in the US immediately after 9/11. Action, yes, but in almost every case exactly the wrong actions were agreed to in short order and executed. Both parties, united as one. Just look at all the unity! Maybe out of this tragedy will emerge a new sense of cooperation. We're still paying the price for that fever-induced debacle. > This is heart-warming stuff. For me it's spine-tingling.

croes 5y ago

The most interesting part is that Switzerland gave up its neutrality, something they didn't even do in World War II.

jacquesm 5y ago
Even Switzerland does more business with the rest of the world than with Russia.
Gud 5y ago
Neutral doesn’t mean taking no action though. It just means they’re not part of a broader alliance. Switzerland can take any action they wish
- croes 5y ago
  Now they are part. And neutrality has a lot do with perception by others https://weltwoche-ch.translate.goog/daily/fuer-das-ausland-hat-die-schweiz-ihre-neutralitaet-aufgegeben-das-hat-konsequenzen/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp https://weltwoche-ch.translate.goog/daily/fuer-das-ausland-h...

Overtonwindow 5y ago

Europe seems to turn a blind eye to the former Soviet bloc states, but perhaps Ukraine has showed them that they could be next. I’ve always found it extremely frustrating by how little Europe seems to do to support its neighbors instead pushing the US to intervene. Some point the European Union has to grow a spine and stop thinking America’s going to bail them out of every conflict.

hef19898 5y ago
The other way to look at that is that the US needed NATO and the Coaltion of the Willing in Iraq and Afghanistan. The EU is a economic and political thing, not a military one.

drewcoo 5y ago

> The eu, at its heart a “peace project”, now dabbles in the vocabulary of war. What garbage! It's a political entity. Von Clausewitz had something to say about war and politics . . . https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/67848.Carl_von_Clausewitz https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/67848.Carl_von_Claus...

bklaasen 5y ago
It started as an economic project after WWII explicitly to foster peace between France and Germany: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Coal_and_Steel_Community https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Coal_and_Steel_Comm...

icare_1er 5y ago

It's not particularly European. The whole planet is pretty much aligned on the sanctions. South Korea is not part of the EU. Nor is Switzerland.