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The childcare issue is almost certainly due to pandemic and will definitely come back. Immigration was also slowed by pandemic. The retirement issue is due to r

by tootie 5y ago

The childcare issue is almost certainly due to pandemic and will definitely come back. Immigration was also slowed by pandemic. The retirement issue is due to retiring boomers and will work itself out as the population gets younger. Declining fertility will likely lead to less robust labor force even while participation rate increases.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
If wages stay strong, and there is no subsidy for childcare, those parents aren't coming back to the workforce. They'll stay home and raise their kids, as they'll have no other choice. Point me at a your average childcare facility, and I can have those employees hired away to better jobs (less responsibility) paying more within the day, even if your skills are only early childcare education or similar (average pay is $11/hour for this work, which isn't sustainable in the current macro, my local Target is paying $17-24/hr for retail). It's a market failure, demonstrating the US doesn't value parent workers who require this service. The population isn't getting younger due to the rapidly declining total fertility rate, so you're going to experience a labor "squeeze", having a bunch of folks leaving the labor force and a smaller working population having their wages rapidly pushed up. Immigration will remain a challenge due to the political climate not being supportive of it. For your average worker, it's a net benefit as long as the surging wages last (and inflation subsides as interest rates rise, which will also push asset prices down), even more so if organizing efforts across the country continue. https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the-us-population/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the... https://www.marketplace.org/2021/08/19/how-essential-child-care-providers-are-often-stretched-thin/ https://www.marketplace.org/2021/08/19/how-essential-child-c... https://laist.com/news/california-child-care-covid-disappearing-closing https://laist.com/news/california-child-care-covid-disappear... https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/us/child-care-centers-crisis.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/us/child-care-centers-cri... https://childcareta.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/public/addressing_decreasing_fcc_providers_revised_final.pdf https://childcareta.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/public/a... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-22/child-care-crisis-during-covid-is-an-economic-disaster https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-22/child-car...

by tootie 5y ago

toomuchtodo 5y ago

If wages stay strong, and there is no subsidy for childcare, those parents aren't coming back to the workforce. They'll stay home and raise their kids, as they'll have no other choice. Point me at a your average childcare facility, and I can have those employees hired away to better jobs (less responsibility) paying more within the day, even if your skills are only early childcare education or similar (average pay is $11/hour for this work, which isn't sustainable in the current macro, my local Target is paying $17-24/hr for retail). It's a market failure, demonstrating the US doesn't value parent workers who require this service. The population isn't getting younger due to the rapidly declining total fertility rate, so you're going to experience a labor "squeeze", having a bunch of folks leaving the labor force and a smaller working population having their wages rapidly pushed up. Immigration will remain a challenge due to the political climate not being supportive of it. For your average worker, it's a net benefit as long as the surging wages last (and inflation subsides as interest rates rise, which will also push asset prices down), even more so if organizing efforts across the country continue. https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the-us-population/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the... https://www.marketplace.org/2021/08/19/how-essential-child-care-providers-are-often-stretched-thin/ https://www.marketplace.org/2021/08/19/how-essential-child-c... https://laist.com/news/california-child-care-covid-disappearing-closing https://laist.com/news/california-child-care-covid-disappear... https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/us/child-care-centers-crisis.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/us/child-care-centers-cri... https://childcareta.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/public/addressing_decreasing_fcc_providers_revised_final.pdf https://childcareta.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/public/a... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-22/child-care-crisis-during-covid-is-an-economic-disaster https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-22/child-car...