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In terms of total number of jobs, it looks like we'er still a smidge below pre-pandemic, but we also haven't seen full recovery of the size of the labor force.

by tootie 5y ago

In terms of total number of jobs, it looks like we'er still a smidge below pre-pandemic, but we also haven't seen full recovery of the size of the labor force. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=MCbN https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=MCbN https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=MCbS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=MCbS

toomuchtodo 5y ago
> but we also haven't seen full recovery of the size of the labor force Roughly 3 million people left the labor force between retirements, inability to work due to lack of childcare and similar, or death. Immigration is also negligible due to border closures. Labor force ain't coming back. Anecdotally, every person in my circle who is in their early 60s is just holding on for Medicare (age 65) and their full retirement age to collect Social Security. https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2021/10/15/the-covid-retirement-boom https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synops... https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/25/great-resignation-older-workers/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/25/great-res... https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-has-been-lost-covid-19/ https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-... https://www.brookings.edu/research/is-long-covid-worsening-the-labor-shortage/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/is-long-covid-worsening-t...
- tootie 5y ago
  The childcare issue is almost certainly due to pandemic and will definitely come back. Immigration was also slowed by pandemic. The retirement issue is due to retiring boomers and will work itself out as the population gets younger. Declining fertility will likely lead to less robust labor force even while participation rate increases.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    If wages stay strong, and there is no subsidy for childcare, those parents aren't coming back to the workforce. They'll stay home and raise their kids, as they'll have no other choice. Point me at a your average childcare facility, and I can have those employees hired away to better jobs (less responsibility) paying more within the day, even if your skills are only early childcare education or similar (average pay is $11/hour for this work, which isn't sustainable in the current macro, my local Target is paying $17-24/hr for retail). It's a market failure, demonstrating the US doesn't value parent workers who require this service. The population isn't getting younger due to the rapidly declining total fertility rate, so you're going to experience a labor "squeeze", having a bunch of folks leaving the labor force and a smaller working population having their wages rapidly pushed up. Immigration will remain a challenge due to the political climate not being supportive of it. For your average worker, it's a net benefit as long as the surging wages last (and inflation subsides as interest rates rise, which will also push asset prices down), even more so if organizing efforts across the country continue. https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the-us-population/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the... https://www.marketplace.org/2021/08/19/how-essential-child-care-providers-are-often-stretched-thin/ https://www.marketplace.org/2021/08/19/how-essential-child-c... https://laist.com/news/california-child-care-covid-disappearing-closing https://laist.com/news/california-child-care-covid-disappear... https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/us/child-care-centers-crisis.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/us/child-care-centers-cri... https://childcareta.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/public/addressing_decreasing_fcc_providers_revised_final.pdf https://childcareta.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/public/a... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-22/child-care-crisis-during-covid-is-an-economic-disaster https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-22/child-car...

by tootie 5y ago

toomuchtodo 5y ago

> but we also haven't seen full recovery of the size of the labor force Roughly 3 million people left the labor force between retirements, inability to work due to lack of childcare and similar, or death. Immigration is also negligible due to border closures. Labor force ain't coming back. Anecdotally, every person in my circle who is in their early 60s is just holding on for Medicare (age 65) and their full retirement age to collect Social Security. https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2021/10/15/the-covid-retirement-boom https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synops... https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/25/great-resignation-older-workers/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/25/great-res... https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-has-been-lost-covid-19/ https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-... https://www.brookings.edu/research/is-long-covid-worsening-the-labor-shortage/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/is-long-covid-worsening-t...

tootie 5y ago
The childcare issue is almost certainly due to pandemic and will definitely come back. Immigration was also slowed by pandemic. The retirement issue is due to retiring boomers and will work itself out as the population gets younger. Declining fertility will likely lead to less robust labor force even while participation rate increases.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  If wages stay strong, and there is no subsidy for childcare, those parents aren't coming back to the workforce. They'll stay home and raise their kids, as they'll have no other choice. Point me at a your average childcare facility, and I can have those employees hired away to better jobs (less responsibility) paying more within the day, even if your skills are only early childcare education or similar (average pay is $11/hour for this work, which isn't sustainable in the current macro, my local Target is paying $17-24/hr for retail). It's a market failure, demonstrating the US doesn't value parent workers who require this service. The population isn't getting younger due to the rapidly declining total fertility rate, so you're going to experience a labor "squeeze", having a bunch of folks leaving the labor force and a smaller working population having their wages rapidly pushed up. Immigration will remain a challenge due to the political climate not being supportive of it. For your average worker, it's a net benefit as long as the surging wages last (and inflation subsides as interest rates rise, which will also push asset prices down), even more so if organizing efforts across the country continue. https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the-us-population/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the... https://www.marketplace.org/2021/08/19/how-essential-child-care-providers-are-often-stretched-thin/ https://www.marketplace.org/2021/08/19/how-essential-child-c... https://laist.com/news/california-child-care-covid-disappearing-closing https://laist.com/news/california-child-care-covid-disappear... https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/us/child-care-centers-crisis.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/us/child-care-centers-cri... https://childcareta.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/public/addressing_decreasing_fcc_providers_revised_final.pdf https://childcareta.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/public/a... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-22/child-care-crisis-during-covid-is-an-economic-disaster https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-22/child-car...