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I don't think it's unlikely at all. In fact, it probably is more likely that someone worse would step in since Putin hasn't exactly been training up any success

I don't think it's unlikely at all. In fact, it probably is more likely that someone worse would step in since Putin hasn't exactly been training up any successors. So whoever fills his shoes will be inexperienced and would probably only have the support of a subset of the ruling elite. Viewing Putin as "nuts" is a bad mistake. He is a rational actor and very capable, the proof is that he is still in power. That doesn't mean he's a "good person" just that he is good at what he does. > would still likely prefer to stop fighting putin's farce of a war because it just makes them look weak You don't seem to understand the stakes here. Completely giving up on the war would make Putin or any other leader look weak and would undermine any credulity they have. If the war ends diplomatically Russia will have to gain something by it in order to satisfy both internal and external perception of them as well as their desire to secure themselves against perceived threat. A skillful and level headed leader might be able to negotiate this but an unskilled person newly entering a leadership position and being buffeted by internal forces would probably make the wrong choices and wind up with even more blood spilled.

spywaregorilla 5y ago
> I don't think it's unlikely at all. In fact, it probably is more likely that someone worse would step in since Putin hasn't exactly been training up any successors. So whoever fills his shoes will be inexperienced and would probably only have the support of a subset of the ruling elite. Viewing Putin as "nuts" is a bad mistake. He is a rational actor and very capable, the proof is that he is still in power. That doesn't mean he's a "good person" just that he is good at what he does. This invasion has been a massive blunder. Complete failure and frankly makes the likelihood of him being killed off higher than its ever been before. Incredible incompetence on his part. > You don't seem to understand the stakes here. Completely giving up on the war would make Putin or any other leader look weak and would undermine any credulity they have. If putin ends the war without an extremely, extremely compelling reason, I'd expect him to be assassinated fairly quickly due to appearances of weakness. It's very difficult to imagine a world where this ends well for him regardless. The best case for him is he gets his version of Afghanistan for decades and suffers severe economic sanctions for a long time. If putin is killed and replaced, the obvious geopolitical move is to say "no, russia's not bad, putin was bad. Take off the sanctions and I'll be a good boy for a few years".

spywaregorilla 5y ago

> I don't think it's unlikely at all. In fact, it probably is more likely that someone worse would step in since Putin hasn't exactly been training up any successors. So whoever fills his shoes will be inexperienced and would probably only have the support of a subset of the ruling elite. Viewing Putin as "nuts" is a bad mistake. He is a rational actor and very capable, the proof is that he is still in power. That doesn't mean he's a "good person" just that he is good at what he does. This invasion has been a massive blunder. Complete failure and frankly makes the likelihood of him being killed off higher than its ever been before. Incredible incompetence on his part. > You don't seem to understand the stakes here. Completely giving up on the war would make Putin or any other leader look weak and would undermine any credulity they have. If putin ends the war without an extremely, extremely compelling reason, I'd expect him to be assassinated fairly quickly due to appearances of weakness. It's very difficult to imagine a world where this ends well for him regardless. The best case for him is he gets his version of Afghanistan for decades and suffers severe economic sanctions for a long time. If putin is killed and replaced, the obvious geopolitical move is to say "no, russia's not bad, putin was bad. Take off the sanctions and I'll be a good boy for a few years".