6 ms·

> The people who want the USA/NATO to start World War 3... What would be the plan here, though. If Russia continues expanding towards, say, Moldavia, is NATO e

> The people who want the USA/NATO to start World War 3... What would be the plan here, though. If Russia continues expanding towards, say, Moldavia, is NATO expected to contemplate the development? How big of a "buffer" does Russia need? Or better yet, what would be the next excuse?

lnxg33k1 5y ago
Just consider that until last week people in Europe were wondering if whether or not we needed NATO, while Putin had months of drills our politicians/intelligence were sleeping the best dreams
q1w2 5y ago
NATO is a mutual-defense alliance. It's not a defend-everyone-else alliance. Finland, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, Georgia, Moldova, would not send troops to defend Russia attacking a NATO member like Latvia, for example. I want those countries to join NATO. NATO members get military protection - non-NATO members do not. We need to keep the rules crystal clear because one of the most important factors in preventing nuclear escalation is predictability.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- bcrosby95 5y ago
  But the world isn't divided into Russia, NATO, and countries no one cares if they're invaded. Just because a country is part of NATO, doesn't mean that that country can't respond to an invasion of a non-NATO country. And just because a country isn't part of NATO, doesn't mean they wouldn't help NATO either.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > NATO is a mutual-defense alliance. It's not a defend-everyone-else alliance. > Finland, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, Georgia, Moldova, would not send troops to defend Russia attacking a NATO member like Latvia, for example. It's not as clear cut as you make it sound: 1. Ukraine has wanted to join NATO for some time, and at at least some NATO countries have expressed a wish for it to join. 2. IIRC, Ukraine also sent troops to Afghanistan, which I believe was technically a defend-the-US NATO mission. > We need to keep the rules crystal clear because one of the most important factors in preventing nuclear escalation is predictability. IIRC, that's mainly about the use of nuclear forces themselves. It's also possible to be too predictable, which lets someone rules-lawyer you into submission, or to be callously bureaucratic and legalistic.
  - calyth2018 5y ago
    > 1. Ukraine has wanted to join NATO for some time, and at at least some NATO countries have expressed a wish for it to join. Which ones? France and Germany weren't particularly too warm about it. Heck, NSC Anthony Lake to Clinton's first term thrown it out there to let Ukraine join NATO and his colleague responded that it is the "reddest of red lines" back in 1993[0] As NATO enlarged since the fall of the iron curtain, it's neo-containment of Russia. As new countries are added to the alliance, they form the new eastern border, where if conflict starts, it would be on their soil. There'd be self-interest to encourage adding others to move it further east. It's not a judgement on them - if I was running a place that forms the eastern front of a containment alliance, I'd want someone to take my place too. 0: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259933/not-one-inch https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259933/not-one-inch
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      > Which ones? France and Germany weren't particularly too warm about it. The US. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/01/nato.georgia https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/01/nato.georgia: > George Bush this morning said he "strongly supported" Ukraine's attempt to join Nato, and warned he would not allow Russia to veto its membership bid. And they had enough support at the time that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations#Bucharest_summit:_2008%E2%80%932009 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations...: > At the NATO summit in Bucharest in April 2008, NATO decided it would not yet offer membership to Georgia and Ukraine; nevertheless, Nato Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that Georgia and Ukraine would eventually become members.[44]
      - calyth2018 5y ago
        You understand that US is the principle architect of neo-containment since the iron curtain fell, since the 90s right. So of course US would want Ukraine to join.
        tablespoon 5y ago
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > NATO is a mutual-defense alliance. It's not a defend-everyone-else alliance. NATO is a regional security alliance that also includes a mutual defense obligation; it is not just a mutual defense alliance. Most NATO operations and missions, including most of those involving active combat, have not been mutual defense missions under Article 5. > Finland, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, Georgia, Moldova, would not send troops to defend Russia attacking a NATO member like Latvia, for example. That's purely speculative; they absolutely could legally and indeed Ireland, as a fellow EU member, has a mutual defense commitment to Latvia without being a NATO member. The existence of one treaty with mutual defense obligations does not prohibit collective self-defense between nations that aren't members, from o a non-member to a member, or from a member to a non-member without another treaty, nor does it prevent the existence of partially overlapping treaty organizations with mutual defense commitments. Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian population in 1999 weren't a NATO member state.
LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
Dunno. Today two USAF B-52's circled over Moldavia for a while. Coming from England, crossing Germany, flying figures over a military shooting range there, going on to Moldavia for hours, flying back to England. Not alone OFC. There is a massive operation underway since days. There are large and smaller AWACS/AEW circling near Kaliningrad, Belorussia and just short of Ukraine. There are a dozen to several dozen tankers in the air over central and east europe almost all the time. I guess they aren't there just for fun, and probably escorted by fighters(which only rarely pop up on tracking services). Also over the seas. There is an armada of C-17 Globemasters and C-5 Galaxies in action, shuttling whatever between bases and continents. I don't expect them to accept being pushed back. Wanna watch? https://globe.adsbexchange.com/ https://globe.adsbexchange.com/ <- FILTER for MILITARY on the right sidebar, maybe click M for selecting multiple ones, which makes their tracks persist, let it run... Like so: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae01d1,ae01d5,ae01d0,ae5420,3b77db,4d03c4,4d03ca,4d03ce,33fe7d,467896 https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae01d1,ae01d5,ae01d0,ae... (some E3's and R(C)135's preselected)
kingofpandora 5y ago
Moldova

lnxg33k1 5y ago

Just consider that until last week people in Europe were wondering if whether or not we needed NATO, while Putin had months of drills our politicians/intelligence were sleeping the best dreams

q1w2 5y ago

NATO is a mutual-defense alliance. It's not a defend-everyone-else alliance. Finland, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, Georgia, Moldova, would not send troops to defend Russia attacking a NATO member like Latvia, for example. I want those countries to join NATO. NATO members get military protection - non-NATO members do not. We need to keep the rules crystal clear because one of the most important factors in preventing nuclear escalation is predictability.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
bcrosby95 5y ago
But the world isn't divided into Russia, NATO, and countries no one cares if they're invaded. Just because a country is part of NATO, doesn't mean that that country can't respond to an invasion of a non-NATO country. And just because a country isn't part of NATO, doesn't mean they wouldn't help NATO either.
tablespoon 5y ago
> NATO is a mutual-defense alliance. It's not a defend-everyone-else alliance. > Finland, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, Georgia, Moldova, would not send troops to defend Russia attacking a NATO member like Latvia, for example. It's not as clear cut as you make it sound: 1. Ukraine has wanted to join NATO for some time, and at at least some NATO countries have expressed a wish for it to join. 2. IIRC, Ukraine also sent troops to Afghanistan, which I believe was technically a defend-the-US NATO mission. > We need to keep the rules crystal clear because one of the most important factors in preventing nuclear escalation is predictability. IIRC, that's mainly about the use of nuclear forces themselves. It's also possible to be too predictable, which lets someone rules-lawyer you into submission, or to be callously bureaucratic and legalistic.
- calyth2018 5y ago
  > 1. Ukraine has wanted to join NATO for some time, and at at least some NATO countries have expressed a wish for it to join. Which ones? France and Germany weren't particularly too warm about it. Heck, NSC Anthony Lake to Clinton's first term thrown it out there to let Ukraine join NATO and his colleague responded that it is the "reddest of red lines" back in 1993[0] As NATO enlarged since the fall of the iron curtain, it's neo-containment of Russia. As new countries are added to the alliance, they form the new eastern border, where if conflict starts, it would be on their soil. There'd be self-interest to encourage adding others to move it further east. It's not a judgement on them - if I was running a place that forms the eastern front of a containment alliance, I'd want someone to take my place too. 0: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259933/not-one-inch https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259933/not-one-inch
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > Which ones? France and Germany weren't particularly too warm about it. The US. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/01/nato.georgia https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/01/nato.georgia: > George Bush this morning said he "strongly supported" Ukraine's attempt to join Nato, and warned he would not allow Russia to veto its membership bid. And they had enough support at the time that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations#Bucharest_summit:_2008%E2%80%932009 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations...: > At the NATO summit in Bucharest in April 2008, NATO decided it would not yet offer membership to Georgia and Ukraine; nevertheless, Nato Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that Georgia and Ukraine would eventually become members.[44]
    - calyth2018 5y ago
      You understand that US is the principle architect of neo-containment since the iron curtain fell, since the 90s right. So of course US would want Ukraine to join.
      - tablespoon 5y ago
dragonwriter 5y ago
> NATO is a mutual-defense alliance. It's not a defend-everyone-else alliance. NATO is a regional security alliance that also includes a mutual defense obligation; it is not just a mutual defense alliance. Most NATO operations and missions, including most of those involving active combat, have not been mutual defense missions under Article 5. > Finland, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, Georgia, Moldova, would not send troops to defend Russia attacking a NATO member like Latvia, for example. That's purely speculative; they absolutely could legally and indeed Ireland, as a fellow EU member, has a mutual defense commitment to Latvia without being a NATO member. The existence of one treaty with mutual defense obligations does not prohibit collective self-defense between nations that aren't members, from o a non-member to a member, or from a member to a non-member without another treaty, nor does it prevent the existence of partially overlapping treaty organizations with mutual defense commitments. Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian population in 1999 weren't a NATO member state.

LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago

Dunno. Today two USAF B-52's circled over Moldavia for a while. Coming from England, crossing Germany, flying figures over a military shooting range there, going on to Moldavia for hours, flying back to England. Not alone OFC. There is a massive operation underway since days. There are large and smaller AWACS/AEW circling near Kaliningrad, Belorussia and just short of Ukraine. There are a dozen to several dozen tankers in the air over central and east europe almost all the time. I guess they aren't there just for fun, and probably escorted by fighters(which only rarely pop up on tracking services). Also over the seas. There is an armada of C-17 Globemasters and C-5 Galaxies in action, shuttling whatever between bases and continents. I don't expect them to accept being pushed back. Wanna watch? https://globe.adsbexchange.com/ https://globe.adsbexchange.com/ <- FILTER for MILITARY on the right sidebar, maybe click M for selecting multiple ones, which makes their tracks persist, let it run... Like so: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae01d1,ae01d5,ae01d0,ae5420,3b77db,4d03c4,4d03ca,4d03ce,33fe7d,467896 https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae01d1,ae01d5,ae01d0,ae... (some E3's and R(C)135's preselected)

kingofpandora 5y ago

Moldova