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Do you think, Putin will stop at Ukraine’s border? I already see Moldova in the queue. And Finland (as non NATO member) as next targets.

by lnsru 5y ago

firstSpeaker 5y ago
How do you see that? Could you elaborate a bit (factually)?
- lnsru 5y ago
  Moldova: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria Very similar operation to the other separatists states near former Soviet Union border.
formerly_proven 5y ago
Finland is not in the NATO but it is an EU member, which has a similar mutual defense clause. So at that point Russia is already attacking a state with nuclear weapons. Obviously, "unthinkable" is now struck out. Two weeks ago it was (at least for civilians around here) unthinkable that Putin would invade Ukraine (and many Ukrainians seem to have been of a similar opinion). Last week it was unthinkable that Russia would start to level Ukrainian cities. What's unthinkable this week?
- FpUser 5y ago
  >"Two weeks ago it was (at least for civilians around here) unthinkable that Putin would invade Ukraine" Yup I was that idiot. Still I think it is even more stupid to start WW3 right now rather than act in response should that abomination of human decide to attack Europe. If we do not attack there is still a chance and a good one for that I think. If we do the chance might still exist but I think it would be pretty slim and do we really want to test it.
lambdasquirrel 5y ago
The EU/NATO is already over-extended as a polity. This is not how you win in the long run. Sweden/Finland have a complicated status with NATO. It's long been understood that extending NATO up to Russia's borders would trigger a response, which is why those countries have always partnered with NATO but never been technically a member. Indeed, through this whole debacle, the folks with brass balls have been the Swedes and the Finns. Ironically, that is part of Putin's public justification – that Ukraine may gain Finnish status. But the reality is that Sweden and Finland are very much socioeconomically Western, whereas Ukraine is not, which is partly what makes Ukraine much harder to defend. In order to defend them, they need to be part of the polity. The EU has already had a hard enough time with Poland and Romania.
- Hamuko 5y ago
  >It's long been understood that extending NATO up to Russia's borders would trigger a response There's already a bunch of NATO countries bordering Russia in Europe. Maybe not to such a large extent that Finland would be, but there definitely is.
  - lambdasquirrel 5y ago
    Which is partly why Russia has been belligerent. The Swedes and Finns have an arrangement dating back to the Cold War. Estonia, et. al were admitted after it seemed the order had changed. But given how things turned out after the end of the Cold War, it makes it look all the more complicated in hindsight.

Do you think, Putin will stop at Ukraine’s border? I already see Moldova in the queue. And Finland (as non NATO member) as next targets.

by lnsru 5y ago

Do you think, Putin will stop at Ukraine’s border? I already see Moldova in the queue. And Finland (as non NATO member) as next targets.

firstSpeaker 5y ago

How do you see that? Could you elaborate a bit (factually)?

lnsru 5y ago
Moldova: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria Very similar operation to the other separatists states near former Soviet Union border.

formerly_proven 5y ago

Finland is not in the NATO but it is an EU member, which has a similar mutual defense clause. So at that point Russia is already attacking a state with nuclear weapons. Obviously, "unthinkable" is now struck out. Two weeks ago it was (at least for civilians around here) unthinkable that Putin would invade Ukraine (and many Ukrainians seem to have been of a similar opinion). Last week it was unthinkable that Russia would start to level Ukrainian cities. What's unthinkable this week?

FpUser 5y ago
>"Two weeks ago it was (at least for civilians around here) unthinkable that Putin would invade Ukraine" Yup I was that idiot. Still I think it is even more stupid to start WW3 right now rather than act in response should that abomination of human decide to attack Europe. If we do not attack there is still a chance and a good one for that I think. If we do the chance might still exist but I think it would be pretty slim and do we really want to test it.

lambdasquirrel 5y ago

The EU/NATO is already over-extended as a polity. This is not how you win in the long run. Sweden/Finland have a complicated status with NATO. It's long been understood that extending NATO up to Russia's borders would trigger a response, which is why those countries have always partnered with NATO but never been technically a member. Indeed, through this whole debacle, the folks with brass balls have been the Swedes and the Finns. Ironically, that is part of Putin's public justification – that Ukraine may gain Finnish status. But the reality is that Sweden and Finland are very much socioeconomically Western, whereas Ukraine is not, which is partly what makes Ukraine much harder to defend. In order to defend them, they need to be part of the polity. The EU has already had a hard enough time with Poland and Romania.

Hamuko 5y ago
>It's long been understood that extending NATO up to Russia's borders would trigger a response There's already a bunch of NATO countries bordering Russia in Europe. Maybe not to such a large extent that Finland would be, but there definitely is.
- lambdasquirrel 5y ago
  Which is partly why Russia has been belligerent. The Swedes and Finns have an arrangement dating back to the Cold War. Estonia, et. al were admitted after it seemed the order had changed. But given how things turned out after the end of the Cold War, it makes it look all the more complicated in hindsight.