4 ms·

This does end in one of a few ways. Here's some: 1. Putin overwhelms Ukraine, via dirtier and dirtier tactics and we lose the leader of a generation (Putin Win

This does end in one of a few ways. Here's some: 1. Putin overwhelms Ukraine, via dirtier and dirtier tactics and we lose the leader of a generation (Putin Wins completely) 2. Ukraine resists for an unusual period of time, creating an even more irrational Putin (Conflict gets worse and wider spread, guaranteeing a world war) 3. Putin is knowingly targeted by his own ranks (Putin becomes cornered animal / nightmare scenario) 4. Put is taken out by his own people swiftly, and soon (We win) There are even more scenarios. I'm mostly trying to point out (via speculation), that the only bullet point that exists on this infinite list where we win is number 4. The rest are all bad and we are in the world's worst casino odds. Sanctions do not do nothing. But if Putin has complete control and everyone is too scared to touch him, then sanctions will do nothing and we have a much larger problem on our hands. We are kind of assuming he cares even a little bit about his own people. If he doesn't at all, we're fucked.

le-mark 5y ago
> is taken out by his own people swiftly, and soon (We win) The only way that’s a win is if someone better steps in, could very easily be someone worse.
- lucasyvas 5y ago
  Well then I have no bullet points where we win :(
- lnsru 5y ago
  How can you imagine someone worse? EDIT: very specific KGB education, weird imperialistic ambitions. Country with unimaginable resources and majority still living in XVIII century. Probably declining health combined with substance abuse. New imaginary friends from complete isolation every day.
- spywaregorilla 5y ago
  It's very unlikely that someone worse would step in. Even someone equally nuts would still likely prefer to stop fighting putin's farce of a war because it just makes them look weak.
  - throwaway4aday 5y ago
    I don't think it's unlikely at all. In fact, it probably is more likely that someone worse would step in since Putin hasn't exactly been training up any successors. So whoever fills his shoes will be inexperienced and would probably only have the support of a subset of the ruling elite. Viewing Putin as "nuts" is a bad mistake. He is a rational actor and very capable, the proof is that he is still in power. That doesn't mean he's a "good person" just that he is good at what he does. > would still likely prefer to stop fighting putin's farce of a war because it just makes them look weak You don't seem to understand the stakes here. Completely giving up on the war would make Putin or any other leader look weak and would undermine any credulity they have. If the war ends diplomatically Russia will have to gain something by it in order to satisfy both internal and external perception of them as well as their desire to secure themselves against perceived threat. A skillful and level headed leader might be able to negotiate this but an unskilled person newly entering a leadership position and being buffeted by internal forces would probably make the wrong choices and wind up with even more blood spilled.
    - spywaregorilla 5y ago
      > I don't think it's unlikely at all. In fact, it probably is more likely that someone worse would step in since Putin hasn't exactly been training up any successors. So whoever fills his shoes will be inexperienced and would probably only have the support of a subset of the ruling elite. Viewing Putin as "nuts" is a bad mistake. He is a rational actor and very capable, the proof is that he is still in power. That doesn't mean he's a "good person" just that he is good at what he does. This invasion has been a massive blunder. Complete failure and frankly makes the likelihood of him being killed off higher than its ever been before. Incredible incompetence on his part. > You don't seem to understand the stakes here. Completely giving up on the war would make Putin or any other leader look weak and would undermine any credulity they have. If putin ends the war without an extremely, extremely compelling reason, I'd expect him to be assassinated fairly quickly due to appearances of weakness. It's very difficult to imagine a world where this ends well for him regardless. The best case for him is he gets his version of Afghanistan for decades and suffers severe economic sanctions for a long time. If putin is killed and replaced, the obvious geopolitical move is to say "no, russia's not bad, putin was bad. Take off the sanctions and I'll be a good boy for a few years".
- spyke112 5y ago
  Well, the next would have to deescalate or face the same consequence, right?
spywaregorilla 5y ago
5. Western intervention with a sufficiently justifiable rationale that putin has some ability to withdraw while saving face, e.g. preventing nuclear disaster at a nuclear power plant 6. Nuclear attack on kyiv, without further nuclear conflict. 7. Individual western country steps in without the whole of NATO, possibly provoking (6) but otherwise ending the conflict.
yabones 5y ago
Well, there's also the most likely scenario. It's the same one that arguably ended the Soviet union: The war goes on for decades or more, with growing desperation on both sides. The Russian economy bleeds through any loose change under the couch cushions to build more tanks & artillery. Ukrainian resistance sustains a long term insurgency against the occupiers, using essentially the same tactics as the Mujahideen or modern Taliban. The West slowly stops caring as other "breaking news" pushes this down the front page. Years of war bankrupt the central government, and regime change deposes Putin. American and British companies come in and privatize anything left. The country is left in poverty and austerity. And then the same thing more or less happens 30-50 years later...
perceptronas 5y ago
Its important to note that Putin has support of his own people. There are polls, anecdata and articles [1] like this to grasp his own people view. It seems that vast majority of working class support him [2]. Data might be wrong so I am open for different perspectives. [1] - Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won’t believe me' - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60600487 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60600487 [2] - Putin's approval rating rises https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-ra...

le-mark 5y ago

> is taken out by his own people swiftly, and soon (We win) The only way that’s a win is if someone better steps in, could very easily be someone worse.

lucasyvas 5y ago
Well then I have no bullet points where we win :(
lnsru 5y ago
How can you imagine someone worse? EDIT: very specific KGB education, weird imperialistic ambitions. Country with unimaginable resources and majority still living in XVIII century. Probably declining health combined with substance abuse. New imaginary friends from complete isolation every day.
spywaregorilla 5y ago
It's very unlikely that someone worse would step in. Even someone equally nuts would still likely prefer to stop fighting putin's farce of a war because it just makes them look weak.
- throwaway4aday 5y ago
  I don't think it's unlikely at all. In fact, it probably is more likely that someone worse would step in since Putin hasn't exactly been training up any successors. So whoever fills his shoes will be inexperienced and would probably only have the support of a subset of the ruling elite. Viewing Putin as "nuts" is a bad mistake. He is a rational actor and very capable, the proof is that he is still in power. That doesn't mean he's a "good person" just that he is good at what he does. > would still likely prefer to stop fighting putin's farce of a war because it just makes them look weak You don't seem to understand the stakes here. Completely giving up on the war would make Putin or any other leader look weak and would undermine any credulity they have. If the war ends diplomatically Russia will have to gain something by it in order to satisfy both internal and external perception of them as well as their desire to secure themselves against perceived threat. A skillful and level headed leader might be able to negotiate this but an unskilled person newly entering a leadership position and being buffeted by internal forces would probably make the wrong choices and wind up with even more blood spilled.
  - spywaregorilla 5y ago
    > I don't think it's unlikely at all. In fact, it probably is more likely that someone worse would step in since Putin hasn't exactly been training up any successors. So whoever fills his shoes will be inexperienced and would probably only have the support of a subset of the ruling elite. Viewing Putin as "nuts" is a bad mistake. He is a rational actor and very capable, the proof is that he is still in power. That doesn't mean he's a "good person" just that he is good at what he does. This invasion has been a massive blunder. Complete failure and frankly makes the likelihood of him being killed off higher than its ever been before. Incredible incompetence on his part. > You don't seem to understand the stakes here. Completely giving up on the war would make Putin or any other leader look weak and would undermine any credulity they have. If putin ends the war without an extremely, extremely compelling reason, I'd expect him to be assassinated fairly quickly due to appearances of weakness. It's very difficult to imagine a world where this ends well for him regardless. The best case for him is he gets his version of Afghanistan for decades and suffers severe economic sanctions for a long time. If putin is killed and replaced, the obvious geopolitical move is to say "no, russia's not bad, putin was bad. Take off the sanctions and I'll be a good boy for a few years".
spyke112 5y ago
Well, the next would have to deescalate or face the same consequence, right?

spywaregorilla 5y ago

5. Western intervention with a sufficiently justifiable rationale that putin has some ability to withdraw while saving face, e.g. preventing nuclear disaster at a nuclear power plant 6. Nuclear attack on kyiv, without further nuclear conflict. 7. Individual western country steps in without the whole of NATO, possibly provoking (6) but otherwise ending the conflict.

yabones 5y ago

Well, there's also the most likely scenario. It's the same one that arguably ended the Soviet union: The war goes on for decades or more, with growing desperation on both sides. The Russian economy bleeds through any loose change under the couch cushions to build more tanks & artillery. Ukrainian resistance sustains a long term insurgency against the occupiers, using essentially the same tactics as the Mujahideen or modern Taliban. The West slowly stops caring as other "breaking news" pushes this down the front page. Years of war bankrupt the central government, and regime change deposes Putin. American and British companies come in and privatize anything left. The country is left in poverty and austerity. And then the same thing more or less happens 30-50 years later...

perceptronas 5y ago

Its important to note that Putin has support of his own people. There are polls, anecdata and articles [1] like this to grasp his own people view. It seems that vast majority of working class support him [2]. Data might be wrong so I am open for different perspectives. [1] - Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won’t believe me' - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60600487 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60600487 [2] - Putin's approval rating rises https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-ra...