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I agree Ukraine will be a much tougher situation for Russia to conquer and hold onto, but you also exaggerate the extent of their economic pain: > Now, Russia

I agree Ukraine will be a much tougher situation for Russia to conquer and hold onto, but you also exaggerate the extent of their economic pain: > Now, Russia has been completely isolated: Russian companies cannot do business internationally due to being unable to transfer money or process payments, the value of Russian company stocks has gone to zero, their stock exchange ceased operations (temporarily), their population are doing bank runs, their currency is worth nothing and its economy is expected to collapse soon. Russian companies can do business with the world outside the "West", notably China, which is already a voracious consumer of Russian raw materials. The stocks that crashed to zero are the ones listed in Western stock exchanges, not the ones in Russia itself. Yes, the currency has halved, but it has done so many, many times before since 1990. So while the economy will certainly take a beating, it's not going to "collapse" entirely.

29athrowaway 5y ago
My predictions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine: 1. Water flow through the North Crimean Canal is restored. 2. Kyiv is surrounded from all directions. Ukranian president dies in combat. 3. Odessa is surrounded from the north, then the Russian navy attacks it from the Black sea. Population is forced to evacuate. 4. Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. 5. Kharkiv is surrounded from all directions. 6. Russian economy collapses. Putin's key supporters turn against him and stage a coup. 7. Ukraine negotiates a ceasefire, then joins the European Union. 8. Unless Ukraine signed a peace treaty granting territory to Russia, Russia will be forced to give up all annexed territories.
- thaumasiotes 5y ago
  > Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. It's always possible, but Russia started the war by recognizing their independence from Ukraine. This is the kind of thing that would happen after the war concluded ("we held a referendum and they decided to rejoin Russia"); it'd be kind of strange during a war the purpose of which is to grant them independence.
  - 29athrowaway 5y ago
    Donetsk and Luhansk already held referendums, but they were considered fraudulent.
- denton-scratch 5y ago
  > Ukranian president dies in combat. That presupposes that he joins the armed forces; at the moment, he is a non-combatant. If he is shot, that would make him a victim of assassination, not a combat casualty. > Ukraine negotiates a ceasefire, then joins the European Union. Wooh! Just join! It takes a while to join the EU. Ask Turkey.
  - Sol- 5y ago
    Would be nice if the EU sped up the accession of whatever is left of Ukraine after this war, if only to protect it from further Russian imperialism. That said, I sadly doubt Ukraine will survive this ordeal.
    - denton-scratch 5y ago
      The EU is an economic union, not a military union. It's not in a position to protect anyone from military threats. I happen to believe that Russia has over-reached itself rather badly; they aren't administering any of the territory they've got troops in, including the single city they've overrun (it's being administered by the incumbent mayor). Most of their supply columns seem to be bogged down, either by resistance or by mud. The best troops they have are paras in the south, and mercenaries around Kiev. Both groups have so far failed to achieve their objectives. The rest seem to be demoralised conscripts. You use conscripts and mercenaries as cannon-fodder at the front of your attack; I imagine Russia will bring up better equipped and trained troops once they have suppressed Ukrainian air defences, and can provide close air support. I think it's going to be long and nasty.
      - 29athrowaway 5y ago
        The European Union is a federation of countries and they do have the equivalent of a department of defense among other institutions. In Ukraine, once the supply lines are cut, the main cities may fall. Once one city falls, the invaders will move on to other cities and start an avalanche effect.
    - ignoramous 5y ago

29athrowaway 5y ago

My predictions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine: 1. Water flow through the North Crimean Canal is restored. 2. Kyiv is surrounded from all directions. Ukranian president dies in combat. 3. Odessa is surrounded from the north, then the Russian navy attacks it from the Black sea. Population is forced to evacuate. 4. Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. 5. Kharkiv is surrounded from all directions. 6. Russian economy collapses. Putin's key supporters turn against him and stage a coup. 7. Ukraine negotiates a ceasefire, then joins the European Union. 8. Unless Ukraine signed a peace treaty granting territory to Russia, Russia will be forced to give up all annexed territories.

thaumasiotes 5y ago
> Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. It's always possible, but Russia started the war by recognizing their independence from Ukraine. This is the kind of thing that would happen after the war concluded ("we held a referendum and they decided to rejoin Russia"); it'd be kind of strange during a war the purpose of which is to grant them independence.
- 29athrowaway 5y ago
  Donetsk and Luhansk already held referendums, but they were considered fraudulent.
denton-scratch 5y ago
> Ukranian president dies in combat. That presupposes that he joins the armed forces; at the moment, he is a non-combatant. If he is shot, that would make him a victim of assassination, not a combat casualty. > Ukraine negotiates a ceasefire, then joins the European Union. Wooh! Just join! It takes a while to join the EU. Ask Turkey.
- Sol- 5y ago
  Would be nice if the EU sped up the accession of whatever is left of Ukraine after this war, if only to protect it from further Russian imperialism. That said, I sadly doubt Ukraine will survive this ordeal.
  - denton-scratch 5y ago
    The EU is an economic union, not a military union. It's not in a position to protect anyone from military threats. I happen to believe that Russia has over-reached itself rather badly; they aren't administering any of the territory they've got troops in, including the single city they've overrun (it's being administered by the incumbent mayor). Most of their supply columns seem to be bogged down, either by resistance or by mud. The best troops they have are paras in the south, and mercenaries around Kiev. Both groups have so far failed to achieve their objectives. The rest seem to be demoralised conscripts. You use conscripts and mercenaries as cannon-fodder at the front of your attack; I imagine Russia will bring up better equipped and trained troops once they have suppressed Ukrainian air defences, and can provide close air support. I think it's going to be long and nasty.
    - 29athrowaway 5y ago
      The European Union is a federation of countries and they do have the equivalent of a department of defense among other institutions. In Ukraine, once the supply lines are cut, the main cities may fall. Once one city falls, the invaders will move on to other cities and start an avalanche effect.
  - ignoramous 5y ago