4 ms·

> a large dam It would be catastrophic but much more localized. Fallout from Chernobyl went around the world several times, poisoning most of the humans alive

> a large dam It would be catastrophic but much more localized. Fallout from Chernobyl went around the world several times, poisoning most of the humans alive or being made at the time (not to mention the rest of the biomass)

akvadrako 5y ago
Not at a dangerous level, say more than eating a banana. The dam breaks killed and hurt magnitudes more people.
- numlock86 5y ago
  > Fallout from Chernobyl went around the world several times, poisoning most of the humans alive or being made at the time [...] > Not at a dangerous level, say more than eating a banana. Born 1986 in Germany and I got a rare metabolism illness that only ~2000 more people have, all born around June/July/August in 1986 in Western and Middle Europe with some exceptions distributed around as late as born in September and October. But the Spring of 1986 was probably just a famous year for pregnant women eating exceptionally many bananas I guess? At least I agree that dams killed more people than that specific event. But wait till you see the numbers for fossil fuels ...
  - eru 5y ago
    Yes, I brought up the dam since hydropower is something that's typically seen as good; but still has the potential for big disasters. (I totally think hydropower is good on balance.) Fossil fuels, and especially coal, have worse impact in total but they are typically more diffuse. So I left them out of the discussion.
- watwut 5y ago
  A single dam break did not killed and hurt magnitudes more people then singly Chernobyl.
  - akvadrako 5y ago
    > In 1975 the failure of the Banqiao Reservoir Dam and other dams in Henan Province, China caused more casualties than any other dam failure in history. The disaster killed an estimated 171,000 people and 11 million people lost their homes.
    - dewey 5y ago
      Were they able to rebuild their homes in the years past that in the same spot? Yes. Are people able to move back into the Chernobyl fallout zone in the next few thousand years? No.
      - eru 5y ago
        See https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/04/17/chernobyl-30-anniversary-babushka-ukraine/82887336/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/04/17/chernob...
        dewey 5y ago
        Are you saying that 180 (old) people who refuse to leave out of 50000 who were displaced are a representative sample that should show us that living in a fallout zone isn't a problem?
        eru 5y ago
        I did not claim that living in the zone is without problems.
ciphol 5y ago
Chernobyl killed about 10k people. A single dam collapse killed 170k people a few decades ago.
- ornornor 5y ago
  Chernobyl killed millions of people over time. Tons of thyroid cancers that would have never existed if Chernobyl didn’t explode.
  - suyjuris 5y ago
    Do you have any kind of source for this? As far as I am aware, estimates for deaths based on thyroid cancers are ~160 [1]. Not 'thousand, just 160 – you claim is off by five orders of magnitude. Estimates for the total death toll are up to 60000 if you assume the linear no-threshold model [2], so might be much lower in reality. [1] See e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_due_to_the_Chernobyl_disaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_due_to_the_Chernobyl_di.... [2] The model assumes that any amount of radiation is harmful and estimates the harm of low doses as a corresponding fraction of the harm of large doses. Empirical evidence is unclear, at best, but it functions as worst-case estimate.
    - spopejoy 5y ago
      How about the 2009 epidemiology study that estimates > 900,000 dead by 2009 with no end in sight? Quoting from a summary (easy to find the original): > In 2009, the New York Academy of Sciences published a book Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment. A team of European scientists led by Dr. Alexey Yablokov, former environmental advisor to Russian Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Mikhail Gorbachev, assembled over 5,000 research studies, most written in Russian and not previously published. > The results were staggering. Yablokov’s team estimated that just in the first 20 years after the Chernobyl meltdown, some 986,000 deaths attributable to it occurred, many in parts of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. The percent of children living in these areas considered in good health plunged from 80% to 20%. Rates of certain cancers soared, including childhood thyroid cancer in Ukraine (20 times higher) and Belarus (200 times higher). Rates of disease in covering many organs in the body all increased in areas closest to Chernobyl. > Yablokov’s team indicated that the number of casualties would continue to grow, well after publication of the book.

akvadrako 5y ago

Not at a dangerous level, say more than eating a banana. The dam breaks killed and hurt magnitudes more people.

numlock86 5y ago
> Fallout from Chernobyl went around the world several times, poisoning most of the humans alive or being made at the time [...] > Not at a dangerous level, say more than eating a banana. Born 1986 in Germany and I got a rare metabolism illness that only ~2000 more people have, all born around June/July/August in 1986 in Western and Middle Europe with some exceptions distributed around as late as born in September and October. But the Spring of 1986 was probably just a famous year for pregnant women eating exceptionally many bananas I guess? At least I agree that dams killed more people than that specific event. But wait till you see the numbers for fossil fuels ...
- eru 5y ago
  Yes, I brought up the dam since hydropower is something that's typically seen as good; but still has the potential for big disasters. (I totally think hydropower is good on balance.) Fossil fuels, and especially coal, have worse impact in total but they are typically more diffuse. So I left them out of the discussion.
watwut 5y ago
A single dam break did not killed and hurt magnitudes more people then singly Chernobyl.
- akvadrako 5y ago
  > In 1975 the failure of the Banqiao Reservoir Dam and other dams in Henan Province, China caused more casualties than any other dam failure in history. The disaster killed an estimated 171,000 people and 11 million people lost their homes.
  - dewey 5y ago
    Were they able to rebuild their homes in the years past that in the same spot? Yes. Are people able to move back into the Chernobyl fallout zone in the next few thousand years? No.
    - eru 5y ago
      See https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/04/17/chernobyl-30-anniversary-babushka-ukraine/82887336/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/04/17/chernob...
      - dewey 5y ago
        Are you saying that 180 (old) people who refuse to leave out of 50000 who were displaced are a representative sample that should show us that living in a fallout zone isn't a problem?
        eru 5y ago
        I did not claim that living in the zone is without problems.

ciphol 5y ago

Chernobyl killed about 10k people. A single dam collapse killed 170k people a few decades ago.

ornornor 5y ago
Chernobyl killed millions of people over time. Tons of thyroid cancers that would have never existed if Chernobyl didn’t explode.
- suyjuris 5y ago
  Do you have any kind of source for this? As far as I am aware, estimates for deaths based on thyroid cancers are ~160 [1]. Not 'thousand, just 160 – you claim is off by five orders of magnitude. Estimates for the total death toll are up to 60000 if you assume the linear no-threshold model [2], so might be much lower in reality. [1] See e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_due_to_the_Chernobyl_disaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_due_to_the_Chernobyl_di.... [2] The model assumes that any amount of radiation is harmful and estimates the harm of low doses as a corresponding fraction of the harm of large doses. Empirical evidence is unclear, at best, but it functions as worst-case estimate.
  - spopejoy 5y ago
    How about the 2009 epidemiology study that estimates > 900,000 dead by 2009 with no end in sight? Quoting from a summary (easy to find the original): > In 2009, the New York Academy of Sciences published a book Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment. A team of European scientists led by Dr. Alexey Yablokov, former environmental advisor to Russian Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Mikhail Gorbachev, assembled over 5,000 research studies, most written in Russian and not previously published. > The results were staggering. Yablokov’s team estimated that just in the first 20 years after the Chernobyl meltdown, some 986,000 deaths attributable to it occurred, many in parts of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. The percent of children living in these areas considered in good health plunged from 80% to 20%. Rates of certain cancers soared, including childhood thyroid cancer in Ukraine (20 times higher) and Belarus (200 times higher). Rates of disease in covering many organs in the body all increased in areas closest to Chernobyl. > Yablokov’s team indicated that the number of casualties would continue to grow, well after publication of the book.