5 ms·

Putin might nuke Warsaw an hour after the no-fly zone is imposed. He's that crazy.

labster 5y ago
The only rational response to that would be a nuclear attack on Moscow. Likely, though, he just wants to make you think he’s that crazy. Madness is a major component of MAD.
- ethbr0 5y ago
  Indeed. A responsive deterrent is only a deterrent if you believe the other person will absolutely, 100%-of-the-time, without-blinking-an-eye execute the strike. If you think they might not, because ethics and morals, then the deterrent's value is discounted by your percentage of doubt.
waffleiron 5y ago
No he isn’t, then he’d be at war with at least 3 other nuclear powers. You know Poland is both EU and NATO right? He has a difficult time winning the war already, he’d never be able to win if he pulls in more countries.
- hans_castorp 5y ago
  In the meantime I fear he is indeed that crazy. He repeatedly stated that his goal is to wipe out Ukraine at any costs. He is a like a little child that doesn't get his way and then blindly hits at everything in his reach.
  - ssijak 5y ago
    Can you post a link to a video him saying that, I never heard it
    - zo1 5y ago
      Would also be curious to see that video as it'd be very damning. Else it's just more Fake News, just from the other side this time. As always, apply the Falsifiability principle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability
    - hans_castorp 5y ago
      One occasion was the latest phone call with Emanuel Macron (French President) Putin stated: > the Kremlin said that Mr. Putin had told his French counterparty > that his main goal was “the demilitarization and neutral status of Ukraine.” > Those goals, the Kremlin said, “will be achieved no matter what.” The only English source I could find quickly was this: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/putin-macron-call.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/putin-macron...
  - capitol_ 5y ago
    It is a political move to appear that crazy. Russia is desperate to deter EU/USA from involving itself more in the war, and the only way it can do that is by treating to escalate to nuclear war. But that threat is only effective if people actually think that you will do it, so they must play this so that they seem crazy enough to start a nuclear war. It's a bit like someone blackmailing you for money for something illegal you did together, only way to get you to pay is to show that they are really willing to expose your secrets, even if they might be exposed also. And once you believe them and start paying they will continue to demand money from you.
  - mise_en_place 5y ago
    What does crazy mean? Irrational? I don’t think so. He is currently following the Nash equilibrium strategy for fighting a war with a non-nuclear power. Edit: by your terminology I would consider Ukrainians to be crazy. This a good thing and the reason why I’m rooting for them. They’re the underdog. The rational thing for them to do was to capitulate as soon as the invasions started. It takes a “crazy” level of conviction to the do the irrational thing here.
    - mcv 5y ago
      No, capitulation would be irrational, because it would mean they would be controlled and enslaved by Putin. Ukraine has lived under that yoke before, and will do everything possible to prevent it from happening again. There is no surrender possible for them, and that's why Putin cannot possibly win this war.

The only rational response to that would be a nuclear attack on Moscow. Likely, though, he just wants to make you think he’s that crazy. Madness is a major component of MAD.

ethbr0 5y ago
Indeed. A responsive deterrent is only a deterrent if you believe the other person will absolutely, 100%-of-the-time, without-blinking-an-eye execute the strike. If you think they might not, because ethics and morals, then the deterrent's value is discounted by your percentage of doubt.

waffleiron 5y ago

No he isn’t, then he’d be at war with at least 3 other nuclear powers. You know Poland is both EU and NATO right? He has a difficult time winning the war already, he’d never be able to win if he pulls in more countries.

hans_castorp 5y ago
In the meantime I fear he is indeed that crazy. He repeatedly stated that his goal is to wipe out Ukraine at any costs. He is a like a little child that doesn't get his way and then blindly hits at everything in his reach.
- ssijak 5y ago
  Can you post a link to a video him saying that, I never heard it
  - zo1 5y ago
    Would also be curious to see that video as it'd be very damning. Else it's just more Fake News, just from the other side this time. As always, apply the Falsifiability principle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability
  - hans_castorp 5y ago
    One occasion was the latest phone call with Emanuel Macron (French President) Putin stated: > the Kremlin said that Mr. Putin had told his French counterparty > that his main goal was “the demilitarization and neutral status of Ukraine.” > Those goals, the Kremlin said, “will be achieved no matter what.” The only English source I could find quickly was this: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/putin-macron-call.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/putin-macron...
- capitol_ 5y ago
  It is a political move to appear that crazy. Russia is desperate to deter EU/USA from involving itself more in the war, and the only way it can do that is by treating to escalate to nuclear war. But that threat is only effective if people actually think that you will do it, so they must play this so that they seem crazy enough to start a nuclear war. It's a bit like someone blackmailing you for money for something illegal you did together, only way to get you to pay is to show that they are really willing to expose your secrets, even if they might be exposed also. And once you believe them and start paying they will continue to demand money from you.
- mise_en_place 5y ago
  What does crazy mean? Irrational? I don’t think so. He is currently following the Nash equilibrium strategy for fighting a war with a non-nuclear power. Edit: by your terminology I would consider Ukrainians to be crazy. This a good thing and the reason why I’m rooting for them. They’re the underdog. The rational thing for them to do was to capitulate as soon as the invasions started. It takes a “crazy” level of conviction to the do the irrational thing here.
  - mcv 5y ago
    No, capitulation would be irrational, because it would mean they would be controlled and enslaved by Putin. Ukraine has lived under that yoke before, and will do everything possible to prevent it from happening again. There is no surrender possible for them, and that's why Putin cannot possibly win this war.