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> They know at some point a treaty will be signed Do they though? Looking at Putin's actions, I wouldn't be so sure.

dmix 5y ago
Why would Russia who lost in Afghanistan and defended Syria’s regime expect to hold something like Kyiv or Kharkov long term via regime change? I really don’t see that happening and I haven’t seen one good explanation from anyone about how they would do that. Syria is the example people are missing not some tiny weak state like Chechnya. The west had tons of local support in Syria but Russia just had to prop up the state and local military long enough to ‘win’ that war. That’s all the west has to do to ‘win’ in Ukraine. To me it only makes logical sense for Russia to be feigning a full state takeover like a chess match, with a dual goal of just maintaining Baltic coast and punishing Ukrainians for Euromadien. Otherwise they are crazy and dumb, which they are regardless given their now near total economic isolation, but there has to be some logic here beyond some shortsighted George Bush style ‘regime change’ strategy.
- dylan604 5y ago
  In Syria, the Russians were as you said propping up the gov't that was already in place. In Ukraine, they will have to hold onto control long enough to remove the current gov't so they can install the crony/puppet gov't. Once that's in place and the peoples are placated enough to accept the regime, they can pull back. Of course, the threat of coming back to settle any disagreements would be ever present.
  - redisman 5y ago
    Hah just like Afghanistan then? What are the chances the Ukrainian people accept a new puppet regime in say the next 10-15 years while this violation is still fresh in their minds?
    - dylan604 5y ago
      I didn't say it was a good plan. It's just a plan.
- redisman 5y ago
  > maintaining Baltic coast Do you mean Black Sea or I’m not understanding this point

dmix 5y ago

Why would Russia who lost in Afghanistan and defended Syria’s regime expect to hold something like Kyiv or Kharkov long term via regime change? I really don’t see that happening and I haven’t seen one good explanation from anyone about how they would do that. Syria is the example people are missing not some tiny weak state like Chechnya. The west had tons of local support in Syria but Russia just had to prop up the state and local military long enough to ‘win’ that war. That’s all the west has to do to ‘win’ in Ukraine. To me it only makes logical sense for Russia to be feigning a full state takeover like a chess match, with a dual goal of just maintaining Baltic coast and punishing Ukrainians for Euromadien. Otherwise they are crazy and dumb, which they are regardless given their now near total economic isolation, but there has to be some logic here beyond some shortsighted George Bush style ‘regime change’ strategy.

dylan604 5y ago
In Syria, the Russians were as you said propping up the gov't that was already in place. In Ukraine, they will have to hold onto control long enough to remove the current gov't so they can install the crony/puppet gov't. Once that's in place and the peoples are placated enough to accept the regime, they can pull back. Of course, the threat of coming back to settle any disagreements would be ever present.
- redisman 5y ago
  Hah just like Afghanistan then? What are the chances the Ukrainian people accept a new puppet regime in say the next 10-15 years while this violation is still fresh in their minds?
  - dylan604 5y ago
    I didn't say it was a good plan. It's just a plan.
redisman 5y ago
> maintaining Baltic coast Do you mean Black Sea or I’m not understanding this point