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I doubt Chechnya has the opportunity to be outfitted with a drone air force and TOW/MANPADS for any Ukrainian that wants them. Chechnya involved muslims. Ukrain

I doubt Chechnya has the opportunity to be outfitted with a drone air force and TOW/MANPADS for any Ukrainian that wants them. Chechnya involved muslims. Ukrainians are far more European, yes that makes a difference. Chechnya didn't have direct NATO border nations and supply lines. I don't believe this to be the normal massive asymmetric difference in firepower if NATO arms the Ukrainians enough. IF they are given sufficient drones, I believe Ukraine could actually have a firepower and battlefield advantage. Now, I don't know for sure NATO is going to commit to such supply. I think they'll be a bit more reserved, but the more weaponry Russia use, the more NATO will supply Ukraine. NATO may decided to supply just enough to bog down Russia but not hand Ukraine a rapid victory. I 100% believe NATO could equip Ukraine with enough weapons for certain victory. It now comes down to whether NATO does that. Missiles: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/03/03/ukraine-receives-fresh-supplies-of-bayraktar-drones-and-anti-tank-weapons/?sh=5b5807a2359a https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/03/03/ukrain... Turkey is supplying new drones. I bet there are more on the way. Stingers and Polish MANPADS are being supplied. These are the publicly announced numbers. Those numbers tell me NATO will supply ample weaponry. Ukraine is a nation of 40,000,000 people. And they appear spoiling for a fight. How many of those would train to fight? 2 million? 5 million? 10 million? If Ukraine gets 1 million volunteers and full arms support from the West, Russia is doomed. I'll be interested to see if female fighting units start getting news like in Kurdistan. If that happens, Russia is in deep trouble.

petesergeant 5y ago
> Ukrainians are far more European, yes that makes a difference There’s also a gigantic diaspora: I had no idea I knew so many Ukrainians. Also the amount of posts on LinkedIn where people point out some portion of their dev team is in Ukraine, and now some Product Manager in Spokane is all in on supporting Ukraine because his front-end guy is in a bunker
- omegaham 5y ago
  My wife is in a similar position here in Oregon. Two of her direct reports are Ukrainian, and one just took a leave of absence that wasn't explicitly "I'm off to defend my homeland," but it wasn't explicitly not that, either.
- lostlogin 5y ago
  > Ukraine because his front-end guy is in a bunker Those are two very different fronts. How grim.
petesergeant 5y ago
> I 100% believe NATO could equip Ukraine with enough weapons for certain victory Also curious to know how many unofficial troops from NATO countries show up. Russia’s neighbours aren’t fans, and bored Slav, Baltic, and Scandi kids who did military service and wanna be heroes showing up in great numbers isn’t outside the realm of possibility
- vertis 5y ago
  The announced figure the other day was 16000. That's two to three days after the request. It's being connected via reddit[0] and other platforms (which can be found from Reddit). [0] https://reddit.com/r/volunteersforukraine https://reddit.com/r/volunteersforukraine
  - denton-scratch 5y ago
    > 16000 That's about two infantry divisions - not to be sneezed at.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  And since Chechnya was mentioned, I recall the war nerd discussing that if there's a conflict with Russia, there is the possibility that Chechens show up. And he emphasized: They are BADASSES. Apparently they were winning the war with Russia until Russia cut a "Red Wedding" deal with the non-muslim contingent of the Chechen resistance. I believe Chechens were in ISIS/Syria and were basically the most effective soldiers. As you said this could become a perverse version of ISIS: a call to arms to anyone that wants a piece of Russia, from bored teenagers to other conflict regions. Maybe it's been sufficiently long that those soldiers have finally aged out, or maybe they haven't. If Ukraine/NATO really is offering 45000 Euros in bitcoin per Russia soldier that surrenders for POW status, then they would probably provide pay to experienced anti-Russia fighters. If you are a -stan with issues with Russia, then this is a golden opportunity: a possible "death blow" to Russia militarily and economically, possibly cause regime change, and possibly destroy any appetite for war by oligarchs and people in Russia.
prox 5y ago
I think I read an assessment that mobilization of the population would yield 900.000 fighters.
denton-scratch 5y ago
> NATO may decided to supply just enough to bog down Russia but not hand Ukraine a rapid victory. If you read a bit more of ACOUP, it's clear that the only path to a "rapid victory" is a set battle against the Russian armed forces, resulting in a decisive defeat for Russia. Even with copious supplies from the west, Ukraine simply couldn't do that. Even if NATO decided to pile in with divisions and air-cover, a rapid victory seems unlikely.
onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
> IF they are given sufficient drones, I believe Ukraine could actually have a firepower and battlefield advantage. The Turkish drones seem to be wreaking havoc on Russia already.

petesergeant 5y ago

> Ukrainians are far more European, yes that makes a difference There’s also a gigantic diaspora: I had no idea I knew so many Ukrainians. Also the amount of posts on LinkedIn where people point out some portion of their dev team is in Ukraine, and now some Product Manager in Spokane is all in on supporting Ukraine because his front-end guy is in a bunker

omegaham 5y ago
My wife is in a similar position here in Oregon. Two of her direct reports are Ukrainian, and one just took a leave of absence that wasn't explicitly "I'm off to defend my homeland," but it wasn't explicitly not that, either.
lostlogin 5y ago
> Ukraine because his front-end guy is in a bunker Those are two very different fronts. How grim.

petesergeant 5y ago

> I 100% believe NATO could equip Ukraine with enough weapons for certain victory Also curious to know how many unofficial troops from NATO countries show up. Russia’s neighbours aren’t fans, and bored Slav, Baltic, and Scandi kids who did military service and wanna be heroes showing up in great numbers isn’t outside the realm of possibility

vertis 5y ago
The announced figure the other day was 16000. That's two to three days after the request. It's being connected via reddit[0] and other platforms (which can be found from Reddit). [0] https://reddit.com/r/volunteersforukraine https://reddit.com/r/volunteersforukraine
- denton-scratch 5y ago
  > 16000 That's about two infantry divisions - not to be sneezed at.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
AtlasBarfed 5y ago
And since Chechnya was mentioned, I recall the war nerd discussing that if there's a conflict with Russia, there is the possibility that Chechens show up. And he emphasized: They are BADASSES. Apparently they were winning the war with Russia until Russia cut a "Red Wedding" deal with the non-muslim contingent of the Chechen resistance. I believe Chechens were in ISIS/Syria and were basically the most effective soldiers. As you said this could become a perverse version of ISIS: a call to arms to anyone that wants a piece of Russia, from bored teenagers to other conflict regions. Maybe it's been sufficiently long that those soldiers have finally aged out, or maybe they haven't. If Ukraine/NATO really is offering 45000 Euros in bitcoin per Russia soldier that surrenders for POW status, then they would probably provide pay to experienced anti-Russia fighters. If you are a -stan with issues with Russia, then this is a golden opportunity: a possible "death blow" to Russia militarily and economically, possibly cause regime change, and possibly destroy any appetite for war by oligarchs and people in Russia.

prox 5y ago

I think I read an assessment that mobilization of the population would yield 900.000 fighters.

denton-scratch 5y ago

> NATO may decided to supply just enough to bog down Russia but not hand Ukraine a rapid victory. If you read a bit more of ACOUP, it's clear that the only path to a "rapid victory" is a set battle against the Russian armed forces, resulting in a decisive defeat for Russia. Even with copious supplies from the west, Ukraine simply couldn't do that. Even if NATO decided to pile in with divisions and air-cover, a rapid victory seems unlikely.

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago

> IF they are given sufficient drones, I believe Ukraine could actually have a firepower and battlefield advantage. The Turkish drones seem to be wreaking havoc on Russia already.