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I think Putin is getting ahead. It is plain Russia made a half assed attempt to take Ukraine, hence the relatively mild events so far. They will just raze the w
by Gatsky 5y ago
I think Putin is getting ahead. It is plain Russia made a half assed attempt to take Ukraine, hence the relatively mild events so far. They will just raze the whole country if they have to, and fearsome modern weapons allow this without getting mud on your boots. This is a credible threat (see Grozny) and he is peddling this to World leaders.
There seem to be two choices in my simplistic view. One is to continue current, which is ‘encouraging’ Ukraine, applying sanctions and largely letting Putin do what he wants, as well as really bending over to broker a peace deal grossly advantageous to Russia. The second choice is to be more aggressive, including military escalation (although not a direct conflict) and turning the screw as far as it will go with weaponising the global economy (this would involve deals with China and India so they don’t help Russia, and taking a lot of collateral damage). In the latter case, the idea will be that with an increasingly mad and aggressive and isolated leader, who frequently threatens what amounts to killing everyone in the world, Putin will be deposed. Hardly guaranteed, unless there is credible knowledge that someone is ready and has the necessary support to oust Putin.
Maybe the first option is better, considering the existential threats. But maybe this is just deferring the problem to next time.
- jzb 5y agoDeferring it is how we got here. This has to be Putin’s last war.
- jjtheblunt 5y agoa third option is an internal coup because it's implausible Russians are uniformly willing to be complicit in Putin's mobster-style aggression
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago> an increasingly mad and aggressive and isolated leader Force him into China's fold. North Korea, for all its madness, isn't rolling tanks into its neighbor.
- awb 5y agoNKs neighbors are Russia, China and South Korea. Russia and China tolerate NK, so NK has no reason to fight a much larger, friendly neighbor. Between North and South Korea is the DMZ, a 4km wide mine field. If your tanks somehow get past that you have 28k US troops waiting for you. If the border was flat, unguarded wheat fields, I’m sure NK would have tried at some point. They don’t lack the will, just the ability. In Ukraine, Russia had the will and the ability.
- dash2 5y agoYou might be underestimating the power of the unprecedented economic and social sanctions the world has unleashed. They might force Russia to negotiate a more reasonable settlement. Notice that Lukoil has already come out against the war. Let’s hope that’s a straw in the wind.