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Indeed, which is fucking terrifying. You don't do war crimes unless you expect to get away with it, which means either you're fighting a war that more powerful

by 21723 5y ago

Indeed, which is fucking terrifying. You don't do war crimes unless you expect to get away with it, which means either you're fighting a war that more powerful nations don't care about, or you expect to win it. Putin can't win against NATO but he can make both sides lose. I used to think he was rational and only minorly evil, but now I'm not so sure of the rationality... and clearly he's more than minorly evil.

veganhouseDJ 5y ago
IMO you have to consider there is an information war going on so to me the only rational thing to do is take everything you think you know with a grain of salt. There probably is a tactical advantage from the Russian side to putting out the idea that Putin has gone crazy. Or he really has gone crazy. We can't really know but the fog of war spreading to social media does not seem like a great development.
- Johnny555 5y ago
  There probably is a tactical advantage from the Russian side to putting out the idea that Putin has gone crazy. What other explanation is there for invading a European country with close ties to the USA and NATO -- one claim for the invasion is that Putin was worried that Ukraine would join NATO, if they are that friendly to NATO, then he must have known that NATO would help fight.
  - colechristensen 5y ago
    There are quite a few loyal or sympathetic to Russia in Ukraine, due to propaganda and history, how many is hard to say and colored by your opinions. Hard to think not significantly fewer now than in the recent past. Putin thought he would win quickly, get troops to lay down arms and overthrow the government. For whatever reason he was wrong, it seems clear this is what was expected but pushback has been more effective. Probably in no small way because organizing the logistics of such a large operation is hard and has not gone smoothly.
  - throwawaylinux 5y ago
    > What other explanation is there for invading a European country with close ties to the USA and NATO This https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZLhRP01jz8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZLhRP01jz8 seems like a possibility. > one claim for the invasion is that Putin was worried that Ukraine would join NATO, if they are that friendly to NATO, then he must have known that NATO would help fight. Well, look at what's happened. Look at what has happened previously in Crimea, look what happened in the Ukraine separatist regions before. Look at what is happening now. He would not necessarily have to be totally irrational to believe objectives could be achieved there.
Johnny555 5y ago
You don't do war crimes unless you expect to get away with it, which means either you're fighting a war that more powerful nations don't care about, or you expect to win it. I think it's the later - Putin is not going to lose this war since he's racking up hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars of damage and compensation for injury/death that Russia would have a hard time paying for if he admits defeat.
- colechristensen 5y ago
  Or some powerful group with slightly more sense or at least ambition in Russia will stage a coup.
  - Johnny555 5y ago
    Right now, I think that's the best the world could hope for. But seems decreasingly likely the longer this goes on, they already have ample incentive to do so now.
colechristensen 5y ago
He is likely “rational” but so out of touch after so many years with the actual world that he can only reason about the distortion bubble that gets built up around people with so much power, wealth, and political influence.
tenpies 5y ago
Two thoughts come to mind: 1) The West has already weaponized the law. It is currently operating on the Latin American dictator model of "for my friends, anything; for my enemies: the law!". 2) The United States strongly opposes the ICC treaty and does not accept its jurisdiction overs its nationals and is even willing to use military force to free any of its nationals should the ICC ever try to enforce jurisdiction over an American[1]. In similar, but less violent terms, Russia withdrew from the ICC back in 2016. So my point is, why would Russia care what some court with no jurisdiction says? It's already obvious it won't matter. The West is already going full Treaty of Versailles on them - so what difference does it make? There is little credibility left for the West, either in terms of rule of law or moral authority to be telling anyone what is right or wrong. This is something that most of the world sees by now, but the West is comically unable to look in the mirror and see this and I'm afraid they will only notice when it's too late. It's absurdly self-destructive but the West consider it "winning", yet the history books will almost certainly mark this as the most obvious inflection point where the West lost the plot. --- [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court#Criticism_by_the_United_States_government https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court#C...
- gordian-mind 5y ago
  Thank you very much. This is how citizens and governments in nations outside of the Western world perceive the West and its mad war propaganda. And they're correct. Westerners, that are scrutinizing every single move of Russia today, ignored every time it was pointed out that the U.S. was waging a proxy war in Ukraine for 8 years. The Minsk agreements, mediated by NATO members, were NEVER applied, and there have been 14000 deaths in the Donbass war since 2014. All the while, U.S. politicians have been publicly gloating that they "are fighting Russia in Ukraine". Their involvement in this is clearly documented -- except Westerners do not even care to look. The current act of freezing the assets of the Russian state -- completely arbitrary thievery -- just sends the following message to outside governments that have seen this unfold: the West is not to be trusted.

by 21723 5y ago

veganhouseDJ 5y ago

IMO you have to consider there is an information war going on so to me the only rational thing to do is take everything you think you know with a grain of salt. There probably is a tactical advantage from the Russian side to putting out the idea that Putin has gone crazy. Or he really has gone crazy. We can't really know but the fog of war spreading to social media does not seem like a great development.

Johnny555 5y ago
There probably is a tactical advantage from the Russian side to putting out the idea that Putin has gone crazy. What other explanation is there for invading a European country with close ties to the USA and NATO -- one claim for the invasion is that Putin was worried that Ukraine would join NATO, if they are that friendly to NATO, then he must have known that NATO would help fight.
- colechristensen 5y ago
  There are quite a few loyal or sympathetic to Russia in Ukraine, due to propaganda and history, how many is hard to say and colored by your opinions. Hard to think not significantly fewer now than in the recent past. Putin thought he would win quickly, get troops to lay down arms and overthrow the government. For whatever reason he was wrong, it seems clear this is what was expected but pushback has been more effective. Probably in no small way because organizing the logistics of such a large operation is hard and has not gone smoothly.
- throwawaylinux 5y ago
  > What other explanation is there for invading a European country with close ties to the USA and NATO This https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZLhRP01jz8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZLhRP01jz8 seems like a possibility. > one claim for the invasion is that Putin was worried that Ukraine would join NATO, if they are that friendly to NATO, then he must have known that NATO would help fight. Well, look at what's happened. Look at what has happened previously in Crimea, look what happened in the Ukraine separatist regions before. Look at what is happening now. He would not necessarily have to be totally irrational to believe objectives could be achieved there.

Johnny555 5y ago

You don't do war crimes unless you expect to get away with it, which means either you're fighting a war that more powerful nations don't care about, or you expect to win it. I think it's the later - Putin is not going to lose this war since he's racking up hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars of damage and compensation for injury/death that Russia would have a hard time paying for if he admits defeat.

colechristensen 5y ago
Or some powerful group with slightly more sense or at least ambition in Russia will stage a coup.
- Johnny555 5y ago
  Right now, I think that's the best the world could hope for. But seems decreasingly likely the longer this goes on, they already have ample incentive to do so now.

colechristensen 5y ago

He is likely “rational” but so out of touch after so many years with the actual world that he can only reason about the distortion bubble that gets built up around people with so much power, wealth, and political influence.

tenpies 5y ago

Two thoughts come to mind: 1) The West has already weaponized the law. It is currently operating on the Latin American dictator model of "for my friends, anything; for my enemies: the law!". 2) The United States strongly opposes the ICC treaty and does not accept its jurisdiction overs its nationals and is even willing to use military force to free any of its nationals should the ICC ever try to enforce jurisdiction over an American[1]. In similar, but less violent terms, Russia withdrew from the ICC back in 2016. So my point is, why would Russia care what some court with no jurisdiction says? It's already obvious it won't matter. The West is already going full Treaty of Versailles on them - so what difference does it make? There is little credibility left for the West, either in terms of rule of law or moral authority to be telling anyone what is right or wrong. This is something that most of the world sees by now, but the West is comically unable to look in the mirror and see this and I'm afraid they will only notice when it's too late. It's absurdly self-destructive but the West consider it "winning", yet the history books will almost certainly mark this as the most obvious inflection point where the West lost the plot. --- [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court#Criticism_by_the_United_States_government https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court#C...

gordian-mind 5y ago
Thank you very much. This is how citizens and governments in nations outside of the Western world perceive the West and its mad war propaganda. And they're correct. Westerners, that are scrutinizing every single move of Russia today, ignored every time it was pointed out that the U.S. was waging a proxy war in Ukraine for 8 years. The Minsk agreements, mediated by NATO members, were NEVER applied, and there have been 14000 deaths in the Donbass war since 2014. All the while, U.S. politicians have been publicly gloating that they "are fighting Russia in Ukraine". Their involvement in this is clearly documented -- except Westerners do not even care to look. The current act of freezing the assets of the Russian state -- completely arbitrary thievery -- just sends the following message to outside governments that have seen this unfold: the West is not to be trusted.