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Plenty of people had their doubts about Trump. Many are worried about the advanced age of Biden. There are many articles doubting Putin's mental capacity righ

• eru 5y ago
  > Philosophically, many would argue that to order international nuclear detonation nowadays is by definition, the action of an insane person. Not at all. A first strike maybe, but a retaliatory strike can be perfectly sane, even if exceedingly cruel. Everybody agrees that the retaliation doesn't magically undo the damage of the first strike. The thing is that you need to pre-commit to a retaliatory strike, if you want deterrence. If you are predictably not going to retaliate, and you are never going for a first strike; then you might as well not have any nukes at all. Never having any nukes at all is also a sane position.
  • kwhitefoot 5y ago
    > If you are predictably not going to retaliate Not committing to immediate retaliation is not at all the same thing as "predictably not going to retaliate". That is, the complement of "committing not to" is not "committing to" but "not committing not to"; the two nots do not cancel and leave the issue of retaliation open. Those intent on a first strike then have to gamble.
    • eru 5y ago
      Yes. But in order for opponent to fear the gamble, you have to have a positive probability of going through and actually ordering the strike. Which again puts you in the position of having to order a strike as a sane person.