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This runs counter to the black swan concept popularized by Taleb. In that they are by nature unpredictable, what one can predict is that there will be a next on

• LeonB 5y ago
  Ok I was waiting for someone to say this. Taleb’s ideas on this would be very interesting. But is a nuclear war a black swan? Think about it. (Hint: have we ever observed a swan of this color before? Have we ever observed countries engaged in total war? Have we ever observed countries deploying nuclear weapons? Yes and yes) Now a stronger form of what I think you’re saying is that, even if modelled all of the ways we think a nuclear war could break out — there are ways we would never think of. And the consequences of failing to account for those would be catastrophic, unlimited downside. I agree with that whole heartedly. To that I would say — having nuclear weapons, allowing them to exist, exposes us to an unlimited downside. No matter how remote the chance of nuclear war seems to be, the only course we can take is complete nuclear disarmament. Global moratorium on nuclear weapons. End of story. We can’t foresee why/how a massive war would unfold. But we can say that it has unlimited downside. Immediate international cooperation on total banning of nuclear weapons is the only way forward.