The author was saying we don’t have enough data to make a prediction. OC is saying we do have enough data to make reasonable assumptions if you look at high ris

The author was saying we don’t have enough data to make a prediction. OC is saying we do have enough data to make reasonable assumptions if you look at high risk situations (which can reasonably be assumed to be a prerequisite to an actual disaster like death or nuclear war). For example, take two people who have never been in a car accident. Driver A gets a speeding ticket a year and a DUI every 3 years. Driver B has never had a violation. It’s reasonable to assume that Driver A is at higher risk of a future accident. We don’t have to only look at the 0 accidents data point, we can look at factors that are typically common in accidents like speed and alcohol.