14 ms·
Why would you go with "gut feeling" instead of IPCC AR6?
by guelo 5y ago
Why would you go with "gut feeling" instead of IPCC AR6?
- ben_w 5y agoThe elevator pitch summary of IPCC AR6 is “It is only possible to avoid warming of 1.5 °C if massive and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are made”. I am saying “I think those cuts are extremely likely to happen, and soon”.
- GekkePrutser 5y agoSoon is still a lot later than immediate. And they won't be that large because even cheap PV needs time to be manufactured in large enough quantities to matter.
- ben_w 5y agohttps://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PV_cume_semi_log_chart_2014_estimate.svg#mw-jump-to-license https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PV_cume_semi_log_c... An order of magnitude every 5 to 10 years is faster than I think you’re giving credit for. I’m expecting the peak capacity of just PV to exceed world electricity demand this decade, and actual output (rain, night, being put on cars parked in shade) to exceed current global electricity demand early next decade as more stuff gets electrified. I expect a slowdown in growth after that point, but I don’t have any intuition about when exactly. And of course we need so much reduction that the long term goal is “everything everywhere in every sector except half the livestock methane” or “everything in really all sectors worldwide except for North Korea”; yet halving output doubles the time available to make the next step, so even there I am optimistic.