> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up Very true. Using, essentially, the infinite typing monkeys idea to

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up Very true. Using, essentially, the infinite typing monkeys idea to say that a nuclear war is bound to happen eventually is just a pseudo-scientific rationalization of war. Put this way, almost anything becomes certain if you completely ignore the fact that you don’t know P(nukes|war) since we have no further data to base this on. Even a coin flipped once or twice might not be heads and tails. The idea of P(heads) = 0.5 is that eventually, as the flips extend to infinity, it equals 0.5. This would be similar to someone living in the Black Plague saying “since 10% of Europe is dying per year, in 10 years we will most certainly be extinct.” I don’t know the technical or formal name for this fallacy or line of thinking, so I’ll just call this gross oversimplification.