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On the other hand we have a lot of data points of humans and nations using every available edge to expand their power throughout history. Also we have made soci

On the other hand we have a lot of data points of humans and nations using every available edge to expand their power throughout history. Also we have made social systems where narcissistic greed and lust for power seems to get pretty much rewarded with more money and power, and misinformation runs rampant. More powerful weapons systems will get developed until MAD might not be certainty for the aggressor, if bombs can be delivered stealthily in minutes. Or at least MAD might get tested with one warning shot, delivering a message of "what is your actual defense going to be, I don't really care about the world anyways" I don't really see it as much as daily roll of a dice but more of a system that might guarantee to force us down that road some day within a few generations.

empressplay 5y ago
People think MAD is 'we launch everything at our enemy if we see one missile' -- this hasn't been the case for decades, since all sides can see launches almost as soon as they happen. So yes, 'warning shots' are now effectively the start of such a conflict. Where MAD comes in is it's generally accepted that if you do that your opponent is likely to lob one back. An eye for an eye. I suspect capitals of nuclear powers are special cases though, and would generally be avoided unless absolutely necessary. I don't think Putin needs to actually start nuking European countries to get his way though. He knows the Americans simply do not have the resolve to escalate a nuclear confrontation unless its own domestic security is threatened. I don't think the UK or France would either. NATO is kind of a sham. But Putin isn't worried about nukes in Ukraine as much as ground troops. The fact that he is suggests he's not worried about getting nuked himself, which is actually a positive sign, for everyone except Ukraine. ETA: I just realized in Biden's SOTU he said the US would defend every inch of NATO territory and make the Russians pay, which was clever, since neither of those statements suggests either an invasion of Russia nor a nuclear response, only that Russia wouldn't be able to hold the territory and that there would be repercussions of some kind. Not a dumb guy.

empressplay 5y ago

People think MAD is 'we launch everything at our enemy if we see one missile' -- this hasn't been the case for decades, since all sides can see launches almost as soon as they happen. So yes, 'warning shots' are now effectively the start of such a conflict. Where MAD comes in is it's generally accepted that if you do that your opponent is likely to lob one back. An eye for an eye. I suspect capitals of nuclear powers are special cases though, and would generally be avoided unless absolutely necessary. I don't think Putin needs to actually start nuking European countries to get his way though. He knows the Americans simply do not have the resolve to escalate a nuclear confrontation unless its own domestic security is threatened. I don't think the UK or France would either. NATO is kind of a sham. But Putin isn't worried about nukes in Ukraine as much as ground troops. The fact that he is suggests he's not worried about getting nuked himself, which is actually a positive sign, for everyone except Ukraine. ETA: I just realized in Biden's SOTU he said the US would defend every inch of NATO territory and make the Russians pay, which was clever, since neither of those statements suggests either an invasion of Russia nor a nuclear response, only that Russia wouldn't be able to hold the territory and that there would be repercussions of some kind. Not a dumb guy.