the gambler's ruin fallacy is a typical example of cumulative probability. cumulative probability measures the odds of two, three, or more events happening. the

the gambler's ruin fallacy is a typical example of cumulative probability. cumulative probability measures the odds of two, three, or more events happening. there's just one catch involved: each event needs to be independent of the others. you can't have the outcome of a first event influence the probability of the next. which we know for nuclear war it be dependent upon the probability of previous events. ie. if a nuclear war starts, either everyone gets annihilated, which in turn influences the probability of the next nuclear war to be zero, or one or both of nuclear powers get severely damaged with catastrophic consequences, therefore influencing probability of future similar events