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Reflecting on what will be the greater challenge for my kids: avoiding emotional overreaction to the media's business model ...or climate change. Pretty sur

by avip 5y ago

Reflecting on what will be the greater challenge for my kids: avoiding emotional overreaction to the media's business model ...or climate change. Pretty sure it's the later

ben_w 5y ago
20 years ago I’d have agreed. Now? Now my gut feeling is that climate change is mostly going to be OK — bad stuff will still happen, but I don’t expect catastrophic variation from what would’ve happened otherwise, because PV is rapidly growing in quantity (literally exponentially) and batteries are rapidly getting cheaper. Plenty of other unsustainable things about our economy besides greenhouse gases of course. But I’m more worried than I used to be about journalists and propagandists both separately A/B testing their ways to the most potent methods to effect specific emotional affects, at which point we all go to war because of something which despite being objectively stupid is also something which enough people feel is a fundamental truth of nature they’re willing to kill and to die for. A more extreme version of https://youtu.be/rE3j_RHkqJc https://youtu.be/rE3j_RHkqJc
- guelo 5y ago
  Why would you go with "gut feeling" instead of IPCC AR6?
  - ben_w 5y ago
    The elevator pitch summary of IPCC AR6 is “It is only possible to avoid warming of 1.5 °C if massive and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are made”. I am saying “I think those cuts are extremely likely to happen, and soon”.
    - GekkePrutser 5y ago
      Soon is still a lot later than immediate. And they won't be that large because even cheap PV needs time to be manufactured in large enough quantities to matter.
      - ben_w 5y ago
        https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PV_cume_semi_log_chart_2014_estimate.svg#mw-jump-to-license https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PV_cume_semi_log_c... An order of magnitude every 5 to 10 years is faster than I think you’re giving credit for. I’m expecting the peak capacity of just PV to exceed world electricity demand this decade, and actual output (rain, night, being put on cars parked in shade) to exceed current global electricity demand early next decade as more stuff gets electrified. I expect a slowdown in growth after that point, but I don’t have any intuition about when exactly. And of course we need so much reduction that the long term goal is “everything everywhere in every sector except half the livestock methane” or “everything in really all sectors worldwide except for North Korea”; yet halving output doubles the time available to make the next step, so even there I am optimistic.
Ourgon 5y ago
I'm fairly sure it is not. Climate change is actually a good example, it has been blown out of all proportions by both politicians as well as media which has led a large number of children and young adults to start worrying whether they will have a future at all before they will die from starvation/drowning/heat shock/fill-in-the-blanks. Slightly older young adults state they do not want to get children "since they will not have a future on a dying planet", all being egged on by "Extinction Rebellion"-like prophets of doom in the media. They are your children so it is your responsibility to make sure they learn to separate panic porn and propaganda from believable prognoses on things like war, natural phenomena, changing climate and its ramifications and more. Get some books on the subject - Michael Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never", Bjørn Lomborg's "False Alarm", Steven Koonin's "Unsettled" and read up on the facts and fictional narratives around the subject of the changing climate. If you are not in panic-mode they are far less likely to be pulled into the fable of a climate-induced eschaton. Teach them critical thinking skills - that is true critical thinking, not "critical theory" thinking which is actually the opposite of what I'm getting at. Help them on their way of navigating through the rapids of their formative years and they'll be stronger and more self-reliant on the other side.
- rfwhyte 5y ago
  So your point is basically to teach your kids to be climate change deniers? And your supporting evidence is a reading list of pop-science books none of which were written by actual climate scientists? Sounds like you need to apply a bit more of that "Critical thinking" you're going on about, as if your reading list is anything to go by, you're not really being all that "critical" but rather seeking out sources of information that confirms your existing biases.
  - Ourgon 5y ago
    You are professing a religion when you're talking in terms of "climate change deniers". It is the same primal urge which makes people call others "anti-vaxxers" even though they've had the full spectrum of vaccinations except that single one. Us versus them, good versus evil, the chosen versus the damned. I prefer to think and live in more than just 2 dimensions, the third one making it possible to take some distance and study the subject. My daughters don't believe the world will go under in a climate catastrophe, nor should they. They also learn to respect their environment. They do not crave after plastic trinkets or the latest phone. I'm fairly sure our "energy footprint" is lower than yours so if anything I should call for you to "repent, sinner!". But I won't and I'll grant you your religion just as long as you grant me the freedom of it.
jokethrowaway 5y ago
Can't wait for a few more decades of "50 years of failed climate predictions". That said, there is plenty of tech being developed to improve global warming, so that rich mega corporation won't have to abandon their fancy offices and villas on the seaside. The real ecological catastrophe will be plastic, the recycling scam (approved by governments and paid with oil money) really sold plastic to people and now we have microplastic everywhere - including our body. Hopefully governments won't stifle innovation too much so that the private sector will come up with a tech solution.

by avip 5y ago

Reflecting on what will be the greater challenge for my kids: avoiding emotional overreaction to the media's business model ...or climate change. Pretty sure it's the later

ben_w 5y ago

20 years ago I’d have agreed. Now? Now my gut feeling is that climate change is mostly going to be OK — bad stuff will still happen, but I don’t expect catastrophic variation from what would’ve happened otherwise, because PV is rapidly growing in quantity (literally exponentially) and batteries are rapidly getting cheaper. Plenty of other unsustainable things about our economy besides greenhouse gases of course. But I’m more worried than I used to be about journalists and propagandists both separately A/B testing their ways to the most potent methods to effect specific emotional affects, at which point we all go to war because of something which despite being objectively stupid is also something which enough people feel is a fundamental truth of nature they’re willing to kill and to die for. A more extreme version of https://youtu.be/rE3j_RHkqJc https://youtu.be/rE3j_RHkqJc

guelo 5y ago
Why would you go with "gut feeling" instead of IPCC AR6?
- ben_w 5y ago
  The elevator pitch summary of IPCC AR6 is “It is only possible to avoid warming of 1.5 °C if massive and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are made”. I am saying “I think those cuts are extremely likely to happen, and soon”.
  - GekkePrutser 5y ago
    Soon is still a lot later than immediate. And they won't be that large because even cheap PV needs time to be manufactured in large enough quantities to matter.
    - ben_w 5y ago
      https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PV_cume_semi_log_chart_2014_estimate.svg#mw-jump-to-license https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PV_cume_semi_log_c... An order of magnitude every 5 to 10 years is faster than I think you’re giving credit for. I’m expecting the peak capacity of just PV to exceed world electricity demand this decade, and actual output (rain, night, being put on cars parked in shade) to exceed current global electricity demand early next decade as more stuff gets electrified. I expect a slowdown in growth after that point, but I don’t have any intuition about when exactly. And of course we need so much reduction that the long term goal is “everything everywhere in every sector except half the livestock methane” or “everything in really all sectors worldwide except for North Korea”; yet halving output doubles the time available to make the next step, so even there I am optimistic.

Ourgon 5y ago

I'm fairly sure it is not. Climate change is actually a good example, it has been blown out of all proportions by both politicians as well as media which has led a large number of children and young adults to start worrying whether they will have a future at all before they will die from starvation/drowning/heat shock/fill-in-the-blanks. Slightly older young adults state they do not want to get children "since they will not have a future on a dying planet", all being egged on by "Extinction Rebellion"-like prophets of doom in the media. They are your children so it is your responsibility to make sure they learn to separate panic porn and propaganda from believable prognoses on things like war, natural phenomena, changing climate and its ramifications and more. Get some books on the subject - Michael Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never", Bjørn Lomborg's "False Alarm", Steven Koonin's "Unsettled" and read up on the facts and fictional narratives around the subject of the changing climate. If you are not in panic-mode they are far less likely to be pulled into the fable of a climate-induced eschaton. Teach them critical thinking skills - that is true critical thinking, not "critical theory" thinking which is actually the opposite of what I'm getting at. Help them on their way of navigating through the rapids of their formative years and they'll be stronger and more self-reliant on the other side.

rfwhyte 5y ago
So your point is basically to teach your kids to be climate change deniers? And your supporting evidence is a reading list of pop-science books none of which were written by actual climate scientists? Sounds like you need to apply a bit more of that "Critical thinking" you're going on about, as if your reading list is anything to go by, you're not really being all that "critical" but rather seeking out sources of information that confirms your existing biases.
- Ourgon 5y ago
  You are professing a religion when you're talking in terms of "climate change deniers". It is the same primal urge which makes people call others "anti-vaxxers" even though they've had the full spectrum of vaccinations except that single one. Us versus them, good versus evil, the chosen versus the damned. I prefer to think and live in more than just 2 dimensions, the third one making it possible to take some distance and study the subject. My daughters don't believe the world will go under in a climate catastrophe, nor should they. They also learn to respect their environment. They do not crave after plastic trinkets or the latest phone. I'm fairly sure our "energy footprint" is lower than yours so if anything I should call for you to "repent, sinner!". But I won't and I'll grant you your religion just as long as you grant me the freedom of it.

jokethrowaway 5y ago

Can't wait for a few more decades of "50 years of failed climate predictions". That said, there is plenty of tech being developed to improve global warming, so that rich mega corporation won't have to abandon their fancy offices and villas on the seaside. The real ecological catastrophe will be plastic, the recycling scam (approved by governments and paid with oil money) really sold plastic to people and now we have microplastic everywhere - including our body. Hopefully governments won't stifle innovation too much so that the private sector will come up with a tech solution.