4 ms·
MAD only works if both sides are rational, and it is pretty clear that the major nuclear powers are lead by deeply irrational and unstable persons at times. Bu
by fabian2k 5y ago
MAD only works if both sides are rational, and it is pretty clear that the major nuclear powers are lead by deeply irrational and unstable persons at times.
But I also see no plausible way at all to ever get rid of nuclear weapons. They are just too effective as a deterrent.
- 2bitencryption 5y agoThere's an extra layer of complexity here. One requirement for MAD to work is two key properties of ICBMs: * their launch is easily detectable * they take a long time to reach the target, long enough to respond with your own ICBMs this incentivizes both sides to avoid a launch. It's like two people, each locked in a separate room, each with a button that will kill the other person. But when you push the button, the other person is notified, and they are not killed until after a 10-min countdown. This gives them 10minutes to respond on spite. So if you push your button, consider yourself dead. But what if the buttons were instantaneous, with no delay? Or what if the buttons did not trigger an alert in the other room? Your only option for self-preservation is to push your button immediately. Hyper glide entry nukes. If you can't detect them, and there's no warning, your only option is to strike first. That's the fear, anyway.
- michaelt 5y agoThere are nuclear-armed submarines that just hide 24/7 so even if their home country is wiped out in a sneak attack, they can launch in revenge.
- axg11 5y agoIf you can't detect them, perhaps that increases the incentive to never even threaten the use of your own nuclear weapons? After all, a threat would encourage your (potential) enemies to strike first.