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> intelligence services are super advanced these days If that were true, how do you reconcile every Western intelligence agency being 100% wrong about the like

> intelligence services are super advanced these days If that were true, how do you reconcile every Western intelligence agency being 100% wrong about the likelihood of Russia invading Ukraine?

dahdum 5y ago
The US/UK had been sounding the alarm for several weeks before it happened.
dktoao 5y ago
Really? They were basically pre-cog on that front. Everything they said was going to happen happened when they said it was going to happen. At least from the layman's perspective of what intelligence they released to the public. Which there was a lot of. Who the heck is saying this? RT? Fox News?
Aeolos 5y ago
I don't know if we were reading the same media, but I was surprised by how _accurate_ the invasion predictions were. Down to the day of the invasion, it was as if the western intelligence services were two steps ahead throughout the build up and actual invasion, dispelling the Russian misinformation campaign in real time.
dr_dshiv 5y ago
Here’s the litany of strategists predicting it: https://mobile.twitter.com/rnaudbertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://mobile.twitter.com/rnaudbertrand/status/149849110790...
- throw_m239339 5y ago
  So what territory is Russia going to invade next according to the same experts?
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    You seem to be unclear on the difference between intelligence analysis and fortune telling.
    - throw_m239339 5y ago
      > You seem to be unclear on the difference between intelligence analysis and fortune telling. No. You seem to forget that many strategists also thought Russia wouldn't launch a full scale war against Ukraine.
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        It was possible to predict the Ukraine war; such an operation requires planning, troop moves, etc. It's very clear US intelligence had a good handle on this. Predicting the next war now prior to any such planning/moves is a silly expectation of people, even if they're experts.
        throw_m239339 5y ago
        > Predicting the next war now prior to any such planning/moves is a silly expectation of people, even if they're experts. Russia threatened Finland with invasion if they join NATO. Are the Russians actually going to invade Finland when the later joins NATO?
        ceejayoz 5y ago
        No one knows. That's crystal ball stuff. If Russia starts moving troops towards Finland, and intelligence agencies start getting indications from electronic and human intelligence, and the rhetoric starts ramping up, you start being able to make more educated predictions.
colinmhayes 5y ago
Intelligence has known Russia would invade Ukraine since the Crimean invasion in 2014. Trump was impeached over threatening to withhold military aid to Ukraine. This isn't a surprise to anyone.
ceejayoz 5y ago
Uh, what? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/us-intel-predicted-russias-invasion-plans-did-it-matter.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/us-intel-predicted-russias-i... > For months, the White House made highly unusual releases of intelligence findings about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to attack Ukraine. Hoping to preempt an invasion, it released details of Russian troop buildups and warned repeatedly that a major assault was imminent. > Critics of U.S. intelligence — including Russian officials who dismissed invasion allegations as fantasy — had been pointing to past failures like the false identification of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. But Russia’s invasion so far has played out largely as the Biden administration said it would back in December, with nearly 200,000 troops striking from several sides of Ukraine. Dec 4, 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukrain... Dec 23, 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/us/politics/russia-ukraine-military-biden.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/us/politics/russia-ukrain... Jan 19, 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/us/politics/biden-putin-russia-ukraine.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/us/politics/biden-putin-r... Feb 11, 2022: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-invasion-any-time/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-invasion-any-tim...

> intelligence services are super advanced these days If that were true, how do you reconcile every Western intelligence agency being 100% wrong about the likelihood of Russia invading Ukraine?

dahdum 5y ago

The US/UK had been sounding the alarm for several weeks before it happened.

dktoao 5y ago

Really? They were basically pre-cog on that front. Everything they said was going to happen happened when they said it was going to happen. At least from the layman's perspective of what intelligence they released to the public. Which there was a lot of. Who the heck is saying this? RT? Fox News?

Aeolos 5y ago

I don't know if we were reading the same media, but I was surprised by how _accurate_ the invasion predictions were. Down to the day of the invasion, it was as if the western intelligence services were two steps ahead throughout the build up and actual invasion, dispelling the Russian misinformation campaign in real time.

dr_dshiv 5y ago

Here’s the litany of strategists predicting it: https://mobile.twitter.com/rnaudbertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://mobile.twitter.com/rnaudbertrand/status/149849110790...

throw_m239339 5y ago
So what territory is Russia going to invade next according to the same experts?
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  You seem to be unclear on the difference between intelligence analysis and fortune telling.
  - throw_m239339 5y ago
    > You seem to be unclear on the difference between intelligence analysis and fortune telling. No. You seem to forget that many strategists also thought Russia wouldn't launch a full scale war against Ukraine.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      It was possible to predict the Ukraine war; such an operation requires planning, troop moves, etc. It's very clear US intelligence had a good handle on this. Predicting the next war now prior to any such planning/moves is a silly expectation of people, even if they're experts.
      - throw_m239339 5y ago
        > Predicting the next war now prior to any such planning/moves is a silly expectation of people, even if they're experts. Russia threatened Finland with invasion if they join NATO. Are the Russians actually going to invade Finland when the later joins NATO?
        ceejayoz 5y ago
        No one knows. That's crystal ball stuff. If Russia starts moving troops towards Finland, and intelligence agencies start getting indications from electronic and human intelligence, and the rhetoric starts ramping up, you start being able to make more educated predictions.

colinmhayes 5y ago

Intelligence has known Russia would invade Ukraine since the Crimean invasion in 2014. Trump was impeached over threatening to withhold military aid to Ukraine. This isn't a surprise to anyone.

ceejayoz 5y ago

Uh, what? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/us-intel-predicted-russias-invasion-plans-did-it-matter.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/us-intel-predicted-russias-i... > For months, the White House made highly unusual releases of intelligence findings about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to attack Ukraine. Hoping to preempt an invasion, it released details of Russian troop buildups and warned repeatedly that a major assault was imminent. > Critics of U.S. intelligence — including Russian officials who dismissed invasion allegations as fantasy — had been pointing to past failures like the false identification of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. But Russia’s invasion so far has played out largely as the Biden administration said it would back in December, with nearly 200,000 troops striking from several sides of Ukraine. Dec 4, 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukrain... Dec 23, 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/us/politics/russia-ukraine-military-biden.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/us/politics/russia-ukrain... Jan 19, 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/us/politics/biden-putin-russia-ukraine.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/us/politics/biden-putin-r... Feb 11, 2022: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-invasion-any-time/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-invasion-any-tim...