All those things were going to happen anyway. I'm assuming Russia's incentives weren't to prevent them from happening altogether, but rather to position themse

All those things were going to happen anyway. I'm assuming Russia's incentives weren't to prevent them from happening altogether, but rather to position themselves in a way that would allow them to manoeuvre when they did happen. The fact their actions have caused these to happen sooner is certainly relevant, but whether they "lost" or not to me is simply a matter of whether their actions have placed them in the above position of better manoeuverability or not. Whether this is the case or not, no idea. Also, "win" and "lose" are highly relative terms here.