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Put yourself in the seat of a Russian or Ukrainian negotiator. Suppose you have to choose between ① a negotiated peace, with a return to Ukraine's old borders,
by Arnt 5y ago
Put yourself in the seat of a Russian or Ukrainian negotiator.
Suppose you have to choose between ① a negotiated peace, with a return to Ukraine's old borders, no reparation payments and a complete amnesty, or ② to fight on, with a hope of victory for the Ukraine that enables reparations and ICC trials. Everyone else in the negotiations has voted, your vote tips the scale. What do you choose?
And if you choose the second option and someone later argues that you should be tried for complicity in the war crimes that happened after your decision to prolong the war, what do you think about that accusation?
This isn't simple.
- Arnt 5y agoReplying to myself… I'd love to see Putin in a Ukrainian prison, but if the war could be ended with Putin moving to live a life of luxury with 200 servants on a beautiful tropical island, inaccessible to assassins… I'd say yes to that. At once. Sigh. So I can see why many wars ends without anyone being dragged in front of the ICC.
- phendrenad2 5y agoVictory for Ukraine wouldn't lead to ICC courts though, unless Ukraine rolls into Moscow and takes Putin captive.
- Arnt 5y agoIt might, or not. When you turn down a negotiated offer today you never know exactly what you might be able to get later. You might hope for a coup d'etat in Russia and after that, peace with amnesty only for those involved in the coup. It's a side point, anyway. My main point was that peace has its cost, and value, and to illustrate how difficult the decisions can be. (I wonder whether someone downvoted me because they think these things should be simple and we should all be able to achieve the bestest outcome?) Somewhat relevantly, I can strongly recommend this book: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/T/bo3635854.html https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/T/bo363585...