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There are rumors Russia is going to impose martial law. Even if those rumors are merely propaganda by the Ukrainian government, there isn't a clear broad base o

There are rumors Russia is going to impose martial law. Even if those rumors are merely propaganda by the Ukrainian government, there isn't a clear broad base of support for the invasion. That doesn't sound like a country that is rallying behind the flag in support of an offensive war against Ukraine.

ipaddr 5y ago
By punishing and cutting off everyday Russians doesn't that increase anti-west support?
- usrusr 5y ago
  The alternative isn't people thankful for not being hit by sanctions, the alternative is people indulging in victory posturing. (in the old days, when soldiers were actually told that they were sent into a war, victory posturing often started before even the first shot was fired)
lazide 5y ago
I wouldn’t be so sure, but also I don’t have reliable data. At this point, I also doubt anyone (including Putin) has reliable data - from what I do know, it’s common place for all the low level folks (equivalent of mayors, low level bureaucrats, city police departments) to fudge numbers the way it’s expected to look. Even opposition politicians, independent reporters (even those that have fled the country), and folks I know with family there have been pretty straightforward in saying he has historically been very popular however. The 60-70% polled support number has seemed quite legit to them. Propaganda is powerful, and most of the base of support he needs to keep the country running isn’t (ever) going to hang out on Twitter, post on Reddit, etc. And the propaganda for a long time has been how the west is trying to bring otherwise strong Russia down. Which is, rather explicitly what the west is doing now (albeit for legit imo reasons). If the opposition can muster enough support to meaningfully impact things, then that’s awesome! That he does seem to be sweating means maybe it will work, I hope it does. I’m just hoping to make the dynamic more visible, and caution against the same kind of thinking that had everyone seemingly convinced that Trump wouldn’t get elected in 2016.

ipaddr 5y ago

By punishing and cutting off everyday Russians doesn't that increase anti-west support?

usrusr 5y ago
The alternative isn't people thankful for not being hit by sanctions, the alternative is people indulging in victory posturing. (in the old days, when soldiers were actually told that they were sent into a war, victory posturing often started before even the first shot was fired)

lazide 5y ago

I wouldn’t be so sure, but also I don’t have reliable data. At this point, I also doubt anyone (including Putin) has reliable data - from what I do know, it’s common place for all the low level folks (equivalent of mayors, low level bureaucrats, city police departments) to fudge numbers the way it’s expected to look. Even opposition politicians, independent reporters (even those that have fled the country), and folks I know with family there have been pretty straightforward in saying he has historically been very popular however. The 60-70% polled support number has seemed quite legit to them. Propaganda is powerful, and most of the base of support he needs to keep the country running isn’t (ever) going to hang out on Twitter, post on Reddit, etc. And the propaganda for a long time has been how the west is trying to bring otherwise strong Russia down. Which is, rather explicitly what the west is doing now (albeit for legit imo reasons). If the opposition can muster enough support to meaningfully impact things, then that’s awesome! That he does seem to be sweating means maybe it will work, I hope it does. I’m just hoping to make the dynamic more visible, and caution against the same kind of thinking that had everyone seemingly convinced that Trump wouldn’t get elected in 2016.