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Yes the world (not just EU, UK and the "western" world, China and India are impacted as well) would suffer in general, russia's economy will be wiped. And the

Yes the world (not just EU, UK and the "western" world, China and India are impacted as well) would suffer in general, russia's economy will be wiped. And the prices of oil will normalise fairly quickly when ppl stop with the panic as supply is currently not affected. It might be in the future but there are mechanisms and levers the world can use.

onemoresoop 5y ago
If Russian supply is cut how do you see prices normalize? Or you simply mean they'll be stable but high?
- martimarkov 5y ago
  They will be high but there are also reserves which can be used initially. Eventually the price will stabilise as the new supply chain (without russia) matures. I think as long as the price is relatively lucrative now so that transportation is seen as a priority then the price will not go extremely high.
humanwhosits 5y ago
Raw supply is not affected but the supply chain on the finance side is, which can create artificial delivery shocks.
actuator 5y ago
I think China is big enough that it can help ease the economic cost on Russia. There are a lot of natural resources, defence and research tech, that China would be glad to get in return as well. India on the other hand has a far weaker hand as they don't have the economic muscle to challenge the Western sanctions and they are dependent on Russia for military hardware. It seems mind boggling that they are not self reliant on defence equipment, even smaller ones. They can't replace all of that hardware with stuff from West as well, as that will be too costly.
- GiorgioG 5y ago
  > I think China is big enough that it can help ease the economic cost on Russia They're not going to help Russia - they're going to exploit the situation and demand deals that are barely tolerable for Russia.
okl 5y ago
> as supply is currently not affected As far as I have kept track, not a single barrel has disappeared from the market due to sanctions until now.

onemoresoop 5y ago

If Russian supply is cut how do you see prices normalize? Or you simply mean they'll be stable but high?

martimarkov 5y ago
They will be high but there are also reserves which can be used initially. Eventually the price will stabilise as the new supply chain (without russia) matures. I think as long as the price is relatively lucrative now so that transportation is seen as a priority then the price will not go extremely high.

humanwhosits 5y ago

Raw supply is not affected but the supply chain on the finance side is, which can create artificial delivery shocks.

actuator 5y ago

I think China is big enough that it can help ease the economic cost on Russia. There are a lot of natural resources, defence and research tech, that China would be glad to get in return as well. India on the other hand has a far weaker hand as they don't have the economic muscle to challenge the Western sanctions and they are dependent on Russia for military hardware. It seems mind boggling that they are not self reliant on defence equipment, even smaller ones. They can't replace all of that hardware with stuff from West as well, as that will be too costly.

GiorgioG 5y ago
> I think China is big enough that it can help ease the economic cost on Russia They're not going to help Russia - they're going to exploit the situation and demand deals that are barely tolerable for Russia.

okl 5y ago

> as supply is currently not affected As far as I have kept track, not a single barrel has disappeared from the market due to sanctions until now.