5 ms·

It is not just Russia. Europe and the UK will suffer as well as fuel and gas prices will raise significantly (2x?) of already high levels.

daliusd 5y ago
It is more complex. Fuel is heavily taxed in Europe so double price will be not double, maybe 50% increase. Still bad but not too bad. Gas (as not fuel for cars but for other means) will be different problem from country to country or even from town to town (e.g. my town might be gas independent by 2023 heating season)
okl 5y ago
We'll have to see that. For the short-medium term it will be a big pain. Europe I think can transition to some green (nuclear?) energy solutions in the next few years. Russia on the other hand -- if you exclude oil, gas, metals, there is not much left that the world buys from them.
martimarkov 5y ago
Yes the world (not just EU, UK and the "western" world, China and India are impacted as well) would suffer in general, russia's economy will be wiped. And the prices of oil will normalise fairly quickly when ppl stop with the panic as supply is currently not affected. It might be in the future but there are mechanisms and levers the world can use.
- onemoresoop 5y ago
  If Russian supply is cut how do you see prices normalize? Or you simply mean they'll be stable but high?
  - martimarkov 5y ago
    They will be high but there are also reserves which can be used initially. Eventually the price will stabilise as the new supply chain (without russia) matures. I think as long as the price is relatively lucrative now so that transportation is seen as a priority then the price will not go extremely high.
- humanwhosits 5y ago
  Raw supply is not affected but the supply chain on the finance side is, which can create artificial delivery shocks.
- actuator 5y ago
  I think China is big enough that it can help ease the economic cost on Russia. There are a lot of natural resources, defence and research tech, that China would be glad to get in return as well. India on the other hand has a far weaker hand as they don't have the economic muscle to challenge the Western sanctions and they are dependent on Russia for military hardware. It seems mind boggling that they are not self reliant on defence equipment, even smaller ones. They can't replace all of that hardware with stuff from West as well, as that will be too costly.
  - GiorgioG 5y ago
    > I think China is big enough that it can help ease the economic cost on Russia They're not going to help Russia - they're going to exploit the situation and demand deals that are barely tolerable for Russia.
- okl 5y ago
  > as supply is currently not affected As far as I have kept track, not a single barrel has disappeared from the market due to sanctions until now.
axg11 5y ago
How much would it cost to subsidize natural gas prices back to previous prices? Is this feasible? Would be very interested in an order of magnitude estimate. Innocent people are dying as the result of an unprovoked war. Sanctions on Russia will inevitably have some negative economic consequences for the West - the question is, what is the total price of these consequences?
- okl 5y ago
  The thing with subsidies is that you just increase the price people are willing to pay for the same amount which will make the problem even worse since there is a bottleneck on the supply side.
- miohtama 5y ago
  In the case of a war, rationing is more efficient tham subsidizing of necessities. This prevents hoarding and further price runs.
  - Lascaille 5y ago
    >rationing is more efficient tham subsidizing You can't ration energy in a democracy while simultaneously being staunchly opposed to the development of new energy generation infrastructure. No electorate will tolerate that. It is as pure an example of 'you're not doing your job' as I can imagine. One of the core roles of government is to guarantee food and energy security for its populace.
    - ben_w 5y ago
      I think the plan now is precisely to develop that infrastructure.
    - kavalg 5y ago
      and water
- protomyth 5y ago
  Not in the near term, but I assume election wise the US will be back to full fracking and natural gas exports will resume from the US. Over $5/gallon pump prices are not a winning election strategy in the US.
justapassenger 5y ago
I'm personally happy to pay more taxes to help offset that. Western world spent trillions of dollars to try to offset impact from the virus. It's not a bad idea to spend even few more, to stop prospects of next world war/cold war and stop a madman who openly wants to rebuilt one of the most evil empires in the history.
rjzzleep 5y ago
My mother had an energy bill that was 3x higher than before. This shit is funny when you're in the valley and you have 6000 in pocket money to burn on stuff, but in Europe that means some peoples monthly rental expenses doubled. It's actually an existential threat for a lot of people. The German leadership just like the USA is so far detached from the normal population that they won't care, and the normal population in Germany isn't like in the middle east, so they will likely take it with some complaints. But since you can't easily get loans like in the US in Germany I wonder what that will mean for people that can no longer afford their bills though. I've seen people being taken to jail in Germany for unpaid 20 Euro bills or not paying public transit.
- laurent92 5y ago
  They might be happy that their carbon independence finally becomes a thing and that their doomsday finally reifies. Worsening the sanctions until Russia cuts the gas is exactly aligned with their view of the world, and the worst thing that would happen would be peace.
- aivisol 5y ago
  > It's actually an existential threat for a lot of people. I am sorry but you have your priorities wrong. The existential threat to all of us is sitting in Kremlin and we must stop him now. I am in Europe, winters in my country are cold with lows to -30 celsius and our the government has been shortsighted/corrupt for decades that we depend on Russian gas for heating for full 100%. But I will support cutting off that pipeline without thinking a second even if it costs me triple or whatever, or will be installing a wood stove. I have been of the other side of the Iron curtain for good part of my life, and believe me, energy bill will be your least worry.
- rosndo 5y ago
  It’s the people unwilling to wear a little more clothes inside in order to reduce our dependence on an aggressive dictator with nuclear weapons who are out of touch, not the politicians. Just put on more clothes and turn your heating down, easy to drastically reduce your gas bill. Most homes also have tons of low hanging fruit to improve insulation. I know I’d be more than happy to wear an extra sweater or two in order to have Europe without wars.

daliusd 5y ago

It is more complex. Fuel is heavily taxed in Europe so double price will be not double, maybe 50% increase. Still bad but not too bad. Gas (as not fuel for cars but for other means) will be different problem from country to country or even from town to town (e.g. my town might be gas independent by 2023 heating season)

okl 5y ago

We'll have to see that. For the short-medium term it will be a big pain. Europe I think can transition to some green (nuclear?) energy solutions in the next few years. Russia on the other hand -- if you exclude oil, gas, metals, there is not much left that the world buys from them.

martimarkov 5y ago

Yes the world (not just EU, UK and the "western" world, China and India are impacted as well) would suffer in general, russia's economy will be wiped. And the prices of oil will normalise fairly quickly when ppl stop with the panic as supply is currently not affected. It might be in the future but there are mechanisms and levers the world can use.

onemoresoop 5y ago
If Russian supply is cut how do you see prices normalize? Or you simply mean they'll be stable but high?
- martimarkov 5y ago
  They will be high but there are also reserves which can be used initially. Eventually the price will stabilise as the new supply chain (without russia) matures. I think as long as the price is relatively lucrative now so that transportation is seen as a priority then the price will not go extremely high.
humanwhosits 5y ago
Raw supply is not affected but the supply chain on the finance side is, which can create artificial delivery shocks.
actuator 5y ago
I think China is big enough that it can help ease the economic cost on Russia. There are a lot of natural resources, defence and research tech, that China would be glad to get in return as well. India on the other hand has a far weaker hand as they don't have the economic muscle to challenge the Western sanctions and they are dependent on Russia for military hardware. It seems mind boggling that they are not self reliant on defence equipment, even smaller ones. They can't replace all of that hardware with stuff from West as well, as that will be too costly.
- GiorgioG 5y ago
  > I think China is big enough that it can help ease the economic cost on Russia They're not going to help Russia - they're going to exploit the situation and demand deals that are barely tolerable for Russia.
okl 5y ago
> as supply is currently not affected As far as I have kept track, not a single barrel has disappeared from the market due to sanctions until now.

axg11 5y ago

How much would it cost to subsidize natural gas prices back to previous prices? Is this feasible? Would be very interested in an order of magnitude estimate. Innocent people are dying as the result of an unprovoked war. Sanctions on Russia will inevitably have some negative economic consequences for the West - the question is, what is the total price of these consequences?

okl 5y ago
The thing with subsidies is that you just increase the price people are willing to pay for the same amount which will make the problem even worse since there is a bottleneck on the supply side.
miohtama 5y ago
In the case of a war, rationing is more efficient tham subsidizing of necessities. This prevents hoarding and further price runs.
- Lascaille 5y ago
  >rationing is more efficient tham subsidizing You can't ration energy in a democracy while simultaneously being staunchly opposed to the development of new energy generation infrastructure. No electorate will tolerate that. It is as pure an example of 'you're not doing your job' as I can imagine. One of the core roles of government is to guarantee food and energy security for its populace.
  - ben_w 5y ago
    I think the plan now is precisely to develop that infrastructure.
  - kavalg 5y ago
    and water
protomyth 5y ago
Not in the near term, but I assume election wise the US will be back to full fracking and natural gas exports will resume from the US. Over $5/gallon pump prices are not a winning election strategy in the US.

justapassenger 5y ago

I'm personally happy to pay more taxes to help offset that. Western world spent trillions of dollars to try to offset impact from the virus. It's not a bad idea to spend even few more, to stop prospects of next world war/cold war and stop a madman who openly wants to rebuilt one of the most evil empires in the history.

rjzzleep 5y ago

My mother had an energy bill that was 3x higher than before. This shit is funny when you're in the valley and you have 6000 in pocket money to burn on stuff, but in Europe that means some peoples monthly rental expenses doubled. It's actually an existential threat for a lot of people. The German leadership just like the USA is so far detached from the normal population that they won't care, and the normal population in Germany isn't like in the middle east, so they will likely take it with some complaints. But since you can't easily get loans like in the US in Germany I wonder what that will mean for people that can no longer afford their bills though. I've seen people being taken to jail in Germany for unpaid 20 Euro bills or not paying public transit.

laurent92 5y ago
They might be happy that their carbon independence finally becomes a thing and that their doomsday finally reifies. Worsening the sanctions until Russia cuts the gas is exactly aligned with their view of the world, and the worst thing that would happen would be peace.
aivisol 5y ago
> It's actually an existential threat for a lot of people. I am sorry but you have your priorities wrong. The existential threat to all of us is sitting in Kremlin and we must stop him now. I am in Europe, winters in my country are cold with lows to -30 celsius and our the government has been shortsighted/corrupt for decades that we depend on Russian gas for heating for full 100%. But I will support cutting off that pipeline without thinking a second even if it costs me triple or whatever, or will be installing a wood stove. I have been of the other side of the Iron curtain for good part of my life, and believe me, energy bill will be your least worry.
rosndo 5y ago
It’s the people unwilling to wear a little more clothes inside in order to reduce our dependence on an aggressive dictator with nuclear weapons who are out of touch, not the politicians. Just put on more clothes and turn your heating down, easy to drastically reduce your gas bill. Most homes also have tons of low hanging fruit to improve insulation. I know I’d be more than happy to wear an extra sweater or two in order to have Europe without wars.