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To start, I think credibility on this question is important. I've been on the arms control beat since around 2017 when I first started to really worry about the
by 3pt14159 5y ago
To start, I think credibility on this question is important. I've been on the arms control beat since around 2017 when I first started to really worry about the strategic concerns of mass cyberattack. I befriended Dr. Jeffrey Lewis and Scott LaFoy after finding their podcast. I tipped their Patreon over to $100 a month, drank beers with them personally, and pushed one of the other Canadians that was a student at the time to go into something that required clearance because he seemed to want to build policy from the inside. He did so and worked directly for Nato for a while.
So while my background isn't really nuclear weapons per se, I'm better read on this than most.
This is the first time in my 36 years of life that I think that there is greater than a 0.5% chance that some kinda of nuclear attack happens in the next 30 days. Almost certainly one or two tactical nukes to scare the hell out of Europe, but still. Fog of war is a real thing and there are a lot of well-intentioned hackers really taking the gloves off against Russia right now, so this could escalate further.
I'm not alone on this. Where the world goes after this looks grim. I'm trying to control my anxiety and focus on work but so much suffering is in the balance. Even a 1% chance of nuclear attack is too much.