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Makes you wonder if one side or the other will “accidentally” damage those pipelines. Like obviously they can’t overtly do it but you know, stuff gets damaged e

by ls612 5y ago

Makes you wonder if one side or the other will “accidentally” damage those pipelines. Like obviously they can’t overtly do it but you know, stuff gets damaged every day in combat zones… it would certainly immensely hurt Russia’s strategic position to have their gas exports cut off.

Ralfp 5y ago
If Polish-Russian gas trade is anything to go by, they won’t. They will just one day cut off deliveries and communicate that there is unknown technical difficulty and they are working on resolving it.
qqqwerty 5y ago
Better yet, Ukraine should build some well fortified military bases on top of/next to the pipelines. It seems like Russia's only advantage in this war right now is artillery. But if an errant shell could shut down one of the last remaining sources of revenue, maybe the will think twice?
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > Better yet, Ukraine should build some well fortified military bases on top of/next to the pipelines. It seems like Russia's only advantage in this war right now is artillery. But if an errant shell could shut down one of the last remaining sources of revenue, maybe the will think twice? That would only hurt Ukraine's allies. Russia is probably going to end up pivoting to exporting energy to China, anyway. Russia's going to see this invasion through. It's clear that there's not some "one weird [economic] trick" that will get them to turn around and go home. The only way that's going to happen is if they're defeated militarily.
  - ciphol 5y ago
    IIRC there are no pipelines between Russia's main oil fields and China, all the pipelines go to Europe
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      > IIRC there are no pipelines between Russia's main oil fields and China, all the pipelines go to Europe That doesn't appear to be correct. It apparently has a pipeline, also ships LNG, and is building an even bigger pipeline to come online in a couple years: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-... > Feb 4 (Reuters) - Russia has agreed a 30-year contract to supply gas to China via a new pipeline and will settle the new gas sales in euros, bolstering an energy alliance with Beijing amid Moscow's strained ties with the West over Ukraine and other issues. > Gazprom , which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline, agreed to supply Chinese state energy major CNPC with 10 billion cubic metres of gas a year, the Russian firm and a Beijing-based industry official said. > First flows through the pipeline, which will connect Russia's Far East region with northeast China, were due to start in two to three years, the source said in comments that were later followed by an announcement of the deal by Gazprom. > Russia already sends gas to China via its Power of Siberia pipeline, which began pumping supplies in 2019, and by shipping liquefied natural gas (LNG). It exported 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China in 2021.
csee 5y ago
Why would Russia damage it? They can just shut it off voluntarily on their side and use that for leverage.
- ls612 5y ago
  My implication was that Ukraine would damage it (but not officially to avoid pissing people off).
- caeril 5y ago
  > They can just shut it off voluntarily on their side and use that for leverage. The sanctions have conveniently carved out exceptions for settling energy, wheat, barley, and other commodity contracts, and it's these contract settlements that have prevented the Ruble's 50% collapse from becoming a 90% collapse. Starving the West of energy and food would definitely be a fun bargaining chip and/or tit-for-tat escalation play, but I don't think the Russian economy has the stomach for it.
  - brnt 5y ago
    Russia is a net food importer. Russia sells gas in Europe for a profit. In China, not so much. Turning off the gas to Europe means turning off the majority of its income, it's not going to happen.
gpm 5y ago
> it would certainly immensely hurt Russia’s strategic position to have their gas exports cut off. Would it? Surely a few days of gas exports aren't that important to their economy, just because they can average the losses over many many more days of gas exports. Now europe has a reason to let russia win, and repair the pipeline. A few days without heating would damage europe (though I'm unsure how many days worth of gas europe has stored). I guess I could see it hurting Russia, because they lose a valuable resource and the threat to cut it off, but I could also see it helping them.

by ls612 5y ago

Ralfp 5y ago

If Polish-Russian gas trade is anything to go by, they won’t. They will just one day cut off deliveries and communicate that there is unknown technical difficulty and they are working on resolving it.

qqqwerty 5y ago

Better yet, Ukraine should build some well fortified military bases on top of/next to the pipelines. It seems like Russia's only advantage in this war right now is artillery. But if an errant shell could shut down one of the last remaining sources of revenue, maybe the will think twice?

tablespoon 5y ago
> Better yet, Ukraine should build some well fortified military bases on top of/next to the pipelines. It seems like Russia's only advantage in this war right now is artillery. But if an errant shell could shut down one of the last remaining sources of revenue, maybe the will think twice? That would only hurt Ukraine's allies. Russia is probably going to end up pivoting to exporting energy to China, anyway. Russia's going to see this invasion through. It's clear that there's not some "one weird [economic] trick" that will get them to turn around and go home. The only way that's going to happen is if they're defeated militarily.
- ciphol 5y ago
  IIRC there are no pipelines between Russia's main oil fields and China, all the pipelines go to Europe
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > IIRC there are no pipelines between Russia's main oil fields and China, all the pipelines go to Europe That doesn't appear to be correct. It apparently has a pipeline, also ships LNG, and is building an even bigger pipeline to come online in a couple years: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-... > Feb 4 (Reuters) - Russia has agreed a 30-year contract to supply gas to China via a new pipeline and will settle the new gas sales in euros, bolstering an energy alliance with Beijing amid Moscow's strained ties with the West over Ukraine and other issues. > Gazprom , which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline, agreed to supply Chinese state energy major CNPC with 10 billion cubic metres of gas a year, the Russian firm and a Beijing-based industry official said. > First flows through the pipeline, which will connect Russia's Far East region with northeast China, were due to start in two to three years, the source said in comments that were later followed by an announcement of the deal by Gazprom. > Russia already sends gas to China via its Power of Siberia pipeline, which began pumping supplies in 2019, and by shipping liquefied natural gas (LNG). It exported 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China in 2021.

csee 5y ago

Why would Russia damage it? They can just shut it off voluntarily on their side and use that for leverage.

ls612 5y ago
My implication was that Ukraine would damage it (but not officially to avoid pissing people off).
caeril 5y ago
> They can just shut it off voluntarily on their side and use that for leverage. The sanctions have conveniently carved out exceptions for settling energy, wheat, barley, and other commodity contracts, and it's these contract settlements that have prevented the Ruble's 50% collapse from becoming a 90% collapse. Starving the West of energy and food would definitely be a fun bargaining chip and/or tit-for-tat escalation play, but I don't think the Russian economy has the stomach for it.
- brnt 5y ago
  Russia is a net food importer. Russia sells gas in Europe for a profit. In China, not so much. Turning off the gas to Europe means turning off the majority of its income, it's not going to happen.

gpm 5y ago

> it would certainly immensely hurt Russia’s strategic position to have their gas exports cut off. Would it? Surely a few days of gas exports aren't that important to their economy, just because they can average the losses over many many more days of gas exports. Now europe has a reason to let russia win, and repair the pipeline. A few days without heating would damage europe (though I'm unsure how many days worth of gas europe has stored). I guess I could see it hurting Russia, because they lose a valuable resource and the threat to cut it off, but I could also see it helping them.