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> China is a large economy but it's nothing like the dominant force many people seem to think. China is 16% of US trade, 22% of EU trade, 22% of Japan's trade,

> China is a large economy but it's nothing like the dominant force many people seem to think. China is 16% of US trade, 22% of EU trade, 22% of Japan's trade, 22% of South Korea's trade, etc You seem to think of those percentage as small - they represent the largest trading partner of each of those country/entity.

godtoldmetodoit 5y ago
China is 3rd largest trading partner to the US behind Canada and Mexico. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/top/top2112yr.html https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/t...
- Aperocky 5y ago
  They are quite literally even for total (all within 0.1% of others), but if you look at Imports China leads by far.
  - stickfigure 5y ago
    There's a relevant joke, you've probably heard it before: ----- A guy walking along the beach finds a bottle. He pulls out the cork, and a genie appears and tells him he has three wishes. "But," the genie says, "I have to warn you, whatever you receive, your worst enemy will get twice as much as you." "OK," says the guy, "first, I want ten million dollars." The genie grants the wish and reminds him that his worst enemy now has twenty million dollars. "Next wish, I want a thirty-room mansion in the Bahamas." The genie builds the mansion for him, and lets him know that his worst enemy now has a home twice as big. "Fine. For the last wish," the guy picks up a big stick and hands it to the genie, "beat me HALF to death." ----- The countries that trade with China can survive 15-25% of their trade evaporating, albeit with some pain. Maybe less than we think - most of what China exports is available from other nations. On the other hand, China's economy cannot weather 80% of its trade market disappearing. I certainly hope it never comes to this. Military adventurism in Taiwan could trigger it. Mass civilian casualties in Ukraine could trigger more severe "no trade with anyone that trades with Russia" sanctions. I'd like to think that the Chinese would be just as disgusted as we would be and join the coalition voluntarily, but who knows.
    - tragictrash 5y ago
      Name checks out. Great joke, have not heard it before.
    - asah 5y ago
      Percentages don't tell the story: modern supply chains means doing without critical components and manufacturing steps, and they cannot be replaced quickly. This is true in food, this is true in semiconductors.
      - stickfigure 5y ago
        Market economies are incredibly resilient to this kind of chaos.
tonmoy 5y ago
The GP is stating that China is dependent on Us aligned country
simmanian 5y ago
Yeah, I didn't get that comment either. Countries like South Korea are economically dependent on China.
- cloverich 5y ago
  The point is most countries maintain 80% of their trade without china, and are aligned with us policy wise for now; the implication is the west has more leverage if push comes to shove, they can (arguably per op) hurt china more than vice versa and more so by being aligned. It would obviously be a very serious injury to all economies involved and will hopefully not be necessary.
  - asah 5y ago
    Percentages don't tell the story: modern supply chains means doing without critical components and manufacturing steps, and they cannot be replaced quickly. This is true in food, this is true in semiconductors.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
inasio 5y ago
I think the point is that it's China vs west-aligned countries, as an individual country it's a huge percentage, but if 78% of your trade depends on dollars/wire transfers/etc that's going to dominate

godtoldmetodoit 5y ago

China is 3rd largest trading partner to the US behind Canada and Mexico. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/top/top2112yr.html https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/t...

Aperocky 5y ago
They are quite literally even for total (all within 0.1% of others), but if you look at Imports China leads by far.
- stickfigure 5y ago
  There's a relevant joke, you've probably heard it before: ----- A guy walking along the beach finds a bottle. He pulls out the cork, and a genie appears and tells him he has three wishes. "But," the genie says, "I have to warn you, whatever you receive, your worst enemy will get twice as much as you." "OK," says the guy, "first, I want ten million dollars." The genie grants the wish and reminds him that his worst enemy now has twenty million dollars. "Next wish, I want a thirty-room mansion in the Bahamas." The genie builds the mansion for him, and lets him know that his worst enemy now has a home twice as big. "Fine. For the last wish," the guy picks up a big stick and hands it to the genie, "beat me HALF to death." ----- The countries that trade with China can survive 15-25% of their trade evaporating, albeit with some pain. Maybe less than we think - most of what China exports is available from other nations. On the other hand, China's economy cannot weather 80% of its trade market disappearing. I certainly hope it never comes to this. Military adventurism in Taiwan could trigger it. Mass civilian casualties in Ukraine could trigger more severe "no trade with anyone that trades with Russia" sanctions. I'd like to think that the Chinese would be just as disgusted as we would be and join the coalition voluntarily, but who knows.
  - tragictrash 5y ago
    Name checks out. Great joke, have not heard it before.
  - asah 5y ago
    Percentages don't tell the story: modern supply chains means doing without critical components and manufacturing steps, and they cannot be replaced quickly. This is true in food, this is true in semiconductors.
    - stickfigure 5y ago
      Market economies are incredibly resilient to this kind of chaos.

tonmoy 5y ago

The GP is stating that China is dependent on Us aligned country

simmanian 5y ago

Yeah, I didn't get that comment either. Countries like South Korea are economically dependent on China.

cloverich 5y ago
The point is most countries maintain 80% of their trade without china, and are aligned with us policy wise for now; the implication is the west has more leverage if push comes to shove, they can (arguably per op) hurt china more than vice versa and more so by being aligned. It would obviously be a very serious injury to all economies involved and will hopefully not be necessary.
- asah 5y ago
  Percentages don't tell the story: modern supply chains means doing without critical components and manufacturing steps, and they cannot be replaced quickly. This is true in food, this is true in semiconductors.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

inasio 5y ago

I think the point is that it's China vs west-aligned countries, as an individual country it's a huge percentage, but if 78% of your trade depends on dollars/wire transfers/etc that's going to dominate