6 ms·

I am quite afraid of Russia shutting off the gas and oil supply. I hope Europe doesn't give up on sanctions then, at least not right away. Betting on Russia ne

by jotm 5y ago

I am quite afraid of Russia shutting off the gas and oil supply. I hope Europe doesn't give up on sanctions then, at least not right away. Betting on Russia needing the income more than we need the resources. Power will go out completely around here and partially in many other regions, but we can live through that. Having solar (plus wind and batteries) is a major boon, and this would undoubtedly drive demand through the roof once people have no choice. Sadly, there isn't enough supply for everyone, especially power hungry industrial sites, and trucks/cars still run on fuel. Solar concentrators would be easy to start producing locally, but they don't run well in cold temperatures and cloudy weather, plus they still need batteries of some sort.

sharken 5y ago
A benefit is that we can seize the opportunity to get away from relying too much on oil and gas. Time to get started.
exabrial 5y ago
I am certainly empathetic to having power and lights go out... In the midwestern USA, we survived last year with rotating blackouts during an unexpected winter storm that reached deep into Texas to parts that haven't seen snow in 50 years, and some parts ever receiving snow on recorded record. That being said, people are dying because of cheap power and gas. I know it's easy for me to say halfway across the world from behind a keyboard, but I really hope you guys elect to have your power shut off (If that's what it takes) to help the people of the Ukraine. Russia knows Europe is energy dependent on it, and it's the one area we haven't totally cut them off on. It's a small sacrifice that would save a hundred thousand lives. In the midwest, the grid operators had a plan to divert available power to critical places first like hospitals, traffic lights, etc. It was freezing hold and I had power for 45m every 2 hours for a few days. I survived, there were places I could go, life went on.
- bluejekyll 5y ago
  While what happened in Texas is good for empathy, it’s not exactly the same. The power outages there were due to a poorly regulated electrical market where the power stations froze in predictable ways. Notice that it was only Texas utilities that experienced the most major issues.
  - exabrial 5y ago
    Neither statement is true but is oft repeated. I can bring some clarity: A poorly regulated electrical market doesn't make a poor user experience. In fact, it was government meddling that created the crisis: Forced closure of coal plants before suitable replacements that could withstand 100 weather year events were available. The free market in Texas has and was leaps and bounds ahead of other markets in green energy production. Texas has also wanted to build countless nuclear projects that are stonewalled by the NRC and other green energy projects that die due to EPA or other local agencies. Believe it or not, green energy companies play dirty too and leverage government bureaucracy to stifle competition and expansion of green energy. Secondly, it was not Only Texas. I live in Kansas and travel to Missouri weekly and we certainly had outages. The reason is all of these areas are covered by the "Southwest Power Pool" which is a generation pool which agree to sell energy to each other and help out during extreme events (an oversipmlication, but good enough for a HN comment). Texas operators trade energy in multiple markets so nearby locations were affected. My home state, produces nearly 2/3 of its energy from green sources: wind and nuclear and the excess is sold to the SPP and can be consumed in Texas. Texas is in fact the _ideal_ energy market, as new ideas can compete immediately and directly and operate on small scales. We'd be doing ourselves a huge favor to operate more grids like this as it lower the entry bar for clean energy startups.
    - bluejekyll 5y ago
      I use the article from the Atlantic. And I did not say other areas didn’t have problems, only that it was Texas that suffered most: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/02/what-went-wrong-texas/618104/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/02/what-...
    - mschaef 5y ago
      > Secondly, it was not Only Texas. I live in Kansas and travel to Missouri weekly and we certainly had outages. ERCOT was down easily 30-35GW (40-50%) of generation and cut power for days across large swaths of the state. SPP had outages, but not nearly as extensive in terms of MW shortfall, number of customers impacted, or duration of the impact. > My home state, produces nearly 2/3 of its energy from green sources: wind and nuclear and the excess is sold to the SPP and can be consumed in Texas. The only part of Texas it can really be consumed in are the parts of Texas served by SPP in the extreme NOrth (that are interconnected with the rest of the Eastern Interconnection). There are a couple small (<1GW) DC tie lines into ERCOT, but not nearly enough to do the sort of bulk power transport that would've been helpful during last February.) > The reason is all of these areas are covered by the "Southwest Power Pool" which is a generation pool which agree to sell energy to each other and help out during extreme events (an oversipmlication, but good enough for a HN comment). Texas operators trade energy in multiple markets so nearby locations were affected. SPP and ERCOT both have 'generation pools' and markets that enable them to serve load across their service areas. What SPP has that ERCOT does not are extensive connections to neighboring pools (MISO, PJM, etc.) and more adequately winterized generation and fuel supply infrastructure. The CEO of SPP gave an interview on an energy podcast last spring where she directly credits the ability bring in power from PJM and MISO as helping SPP serve its load. That sort of option wasn't even available to ERCOT. Notably, the other option unavailable to ERCOT is exporting/selling wind power to neighboring ISO's.... The Texas focus on avoiding federal energy regulation is costing them the ability to sell one of their strong suits into a broader market.
- landemva 5y ago
  ' ...people are dying because of cheap power and gas.' Cheap power raises living standards. How do people die from voluntarily choosing less expensive energy?
- Ajef 5y ago
  As a German I'm uncertain of what I'd want. I can totally imagine next winter being harsh, lacking power and heating. I'm less afraid of that than I am of it being a cause for people to use it to build national pride along the lines of "do without for the sake of Germany and your fellow man"... I don't think I'll have a problem living without heating in the winter... electricity is probably harder. I think the media message that will go along with it might change something in Germany I don't want to see.
berto4 5y ago
can solar run 24/7 factories?? it's not that simple guys
- criddell 5y ago
  They understand that.
- jotm 5y ago
  As I said, batteries of any kind... Nuclear would be better, but that takes time to build.
  - exabrial 5y ago
    10000% Nuclear. France just announced a massive Nuclear project, meanwhile in the USA, the NRC bankrupts every project with non-stop delays instead of timely constructive work with designers, builders, and investors.
    - adrianN 5y ago
      When did France announce a massive nuclear project? The last news I heard was that they plan to build a couple of new nuclear power plants, but far from the numbers they'd need to maintain the current capacity as ageing plants go offline in the coming years.
      - Retric 5y ago
        While France is aiming to significantly reduce the number of nuclear power plants they operate, building any nuclear power plants is seen as a good sign by the industry.
      - WillPostForFood 5y ago
        https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/10/world/europe/france-macron-nuclear-power.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/10/world/europe/france-macro... Is this not a major project? The article is very lacking in details, so it is hard to tell what it amounts to in terms of impact.
x11vnc 5y ago
gwbas1c 5y ago
I suspect that oil will be brought in from other sources; and gas turbines will be retrofitted to run on oil. I live near a turbine that runs on gas in the summer, and oil in the winter when demand for gas is high. I also suspect that prices will rise, encouraging people to turn their thermostats down and limit travel.
neilwilson 5y ago
Russia has no need of the income because it is in a denomination they can’t now spend. Countries only need to export to the extent that they can get imports. Anything beyond that is a waste - and clearly so now that foreign reserves are being frozen and defaulted on. Russia is keeping the gas on to keep the EU out of the war.
- yeellow 5y ago
  They keep nukes to keep EU (well, NATO) out of the war. The gas is flowing because it's their last card, if they stop the gas they will lose it and EU will be forced to look for alternatives asap and won't come back. Selling more to China is not a good short option because as I understand there is no infrastructure, most pipes go to the west. Russia needs this money to trade with China, they won't accept Rubble.
  - neilwilson 5y ago
    China and Russia have swap arrangements. And China uses Yuan, not Euros. In very international trade the buyer uses the currency they have and the seller gets the currency they want. The finance system is there to make the match. We don’t trade using pebbles. We trade using promises that are created on demand.

by jotm 5y ago

sharken 5y ago

A benefit is that we can seize the opportunity to get away from relying too much on oil and gas. Time to get started.

exabrial 5y ago

I am certainly empathetic to having power and lights go out... In the midwestern USA, we survived last year with rotating blackouts during an unexpected winter storm that reached deep into Texas to parts that haven't seen snow in 50 years, and some parts ever receiving snow on recorded record. That being said, people are dying because of cheap power and gas. I know it's easy for me to say halfway across the world from behind a keyboard, but I really hope you guys elect to have your power shut off (If that's what it takes) to help the people of the Ukraine. Russia knows Europe is energy dependent on it, and it's the one area we haven't totally cut them off on. It's a small sacrifice that would save a hundred thousand lives. In the midwest, the grid operators had a plan to divert available power to critical places first like hospitals, traffic lights, etc. It was freezing hold and I had power for 45m every 2 hours for a few days. I survived, there were places I could go, life went on.

bluejekyll 5y ago
While what happened in Texas is good for empathy, it’s not exactly the same. The power outages there were due to a poorly regulated electrical market where the power stations froze in predictable ways. Notice that it was only Texas utilities that experienced the most major issues.
- exabrial 5y ago
  Neither statement is true but is oft repeated. I can bring some clarity: A poorly regulated electrical market doesn't make a poor user experience. In fact, it was government meddling that created the crisis: Forced closure of coal plants before suitable replacements that could withstand 100 weather year events were available. The free market in Texas has and was leaps and bounds ahead of other markets in green energy production. Texas has also wanted to build countless nuclear projects that are stonewalled by the NRC and other green energy projects that die due to EPA or other local agencies. Believe it or not, green energy companies play dirty too and leverage government bureaucracy to stifle competition and expansion of green energy. Secondly, it was not Only Texas. I live in Kansas and travel to Missouri weekly and we certainly had outages. The reason is all of these areas are covered by the "Southwest Power Pool" which is a generation pool which agree to sell energy to each other and help out during extreme events (an oversipmlication, but good enough for a HN comment). Texas operators trade energy in multiple markets so nearby locations were affected. My home state, produces nearly 2/3 of its energy from green sources: wind and nuclear and the excess is sold to the SPP and can be consumed in Texas. Texas is in fact the _ideal_ energy market, as new ideas can compete immediately and directly and operate on small scales. We'd be doing ourselves a huge favor to operate more grids like this as it lower the entry bar for clean energy startups.
  - bluejekyll 5y ago
    I use the article from the Atlantic. And I did not say other areas didn’t have problems, only that it was Texas that suffered most: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/02/what-went-wrong-texas/618104/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/02/what-...
  - mschaef 5y ago
    > Secondly, it was not Only Texas. I live in Kansas and travel to Missouri weekly and we certainly had outages. ERCOT was down easily 30-35GW (40-50%) of generation and cut power for days across large swaths of the state. SPP had outages, but not nearly as extensive in terms of MW shortfall, number of customers impacted, or duration of the impact. > My home state, produces nearly 2/3 of its energy from green sources: wind and nuclear and the excess is sold to the SPP and can be consumed in Texas. The only part of Texas it can really be consumed in are the parts of Texas served by SPP in the extreme NOrth (that are interconnected with the rest of the Eastern Interconnection). There are a couple small (<1GW) DC tie lines into ERCOT, but not nearly enough to do the sort of bulk power transport that would've been helpful during last February.) > The reason is all of these areas are covered by the "Southwest Power Pool" which is a generation pool which agree to sell energy to each other and help out during extreme events (an oversipmlication, but good enough for a HN comment). Texas operators trade energy in multiple markets so nearby locations were affected. SPP and ERCOT both have 'generation pools' and markets that enable them to serve load across their service areas. What SPP has that ERCOT does not are extensive connections to neighboring pools (MISO, PJM, etc.) and more adequately winterized generation and fuel supply infrastructure. The CEO of SPP gave an interview on an energy podcast last spring where she directly credits the ability bring in power from PJM and MISO as helping SPP serve its load. That sort of option wasn't even available to ERCOT. Notably, the other option unavailable to ERCOT is exporting/selling wind power to neighboring ISO's.... The Texas focus on avoiding federal energy regulation is costing them the ability to sell one of their strong suits into a broader market.
landemva 5y ago
' ...people are dying because of cheap power and gas.' Cheap power raises living standards. How do people die from voluntarily choosing less expensive energy?
Ajef 5y ago
As a German I'm uncertain of what I'd want. I can totally imagine next winter being harsh, lacking power and heating. I'm less afraid of that than I am of it being a cause for people to use it to build national pride along the lines of "do without for the sake of Germany and your fellow man"... I don't think I'll have a problem living without heating in the winter... electricity is probably harder. I think the media message that will go along with it might change something in Germany I don't want to see.

berto4 5y ago

can solar run 24/7 factories?? it's not that simple guys

criddell 5y ago
They understand that.
jotm 5y ago
As I said, batteries of any kind... Nuclear would be better, but that takes time to build.
- exabrial 5y ago
  10000% Nuclear. France just announced a massive Nuclear project, meanwhile in the USA, the NRC bankrupts every project with non-stop delays instead of timely constructive work with designers, builders, and investors.
  - adrianN 5y ago
    When did France announce a massive nuclear project? The last news I heard was that they plan to build a couple of new nuclear power plants, but far from the numbers they'd need to maintain the current capacity as ageing plants go offline in the coming years.
    - Retric 5y ago
      While France is aiming to significantly reduce the number of nuclear power plants they operate, building any nuclear power plants is seen as a good sign by the industry.
    - WillPostForFood 5y ago
      https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/10/world/europe/france-macron-nuclear-power.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/10/world/europe/france-macro... Is this not a major project? The article is very lacking in details, so it is hard to tell what it amounts to in terms of impact.

x11vnc 5y ago

gwbas1c 5y ago

I suspect that oil will be brought in from other sources; and gas turbines will be retrofitted to run on oil. I live near a turbine that runs on gas in the summer, and oil in the winter when demand for gas is high. I also suspect that prices will rise, encouraging people to turn their thermostats down and limit travel.

neilwilson 5y ago

Russia has no need of the income because it is in a denomination they can’t now spend. Countries only need to export to the extent that they can get imports. Anything beyond that is a waste - and clearly so now that foreign reserves are being frozen and defaulted on. Russia is keeping the gas on to keep the EU out of the war.

yeellow 5y ago
They keep nukes to keep EU (well, NATO) out of the war. The gas is flowing because it's their last card, if they stop the gas they will lose it and EU will be forced to look for alternatives asap and won't come back. Selling more to China is not a good short option because as I understand there is no infrastructure, most pipes go to the west. Russia needs this money to trade with China, they won't accept Rubble.
- neilwilson 5y ago
  China and Russia have swap arrangements. And China uses Yuan, not Euros. In very international trade the buyer uses the currency they have and the seller gets the currency they want. The finance system is there to make the match. We don’t trade using pebbles. We trade using promises that are created on demand.