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If Russia withdraws, Ukraine is going to join NATO the second it's not in hostilities. And it'll be accepted, because what Europe wants is not to have to sanct

by XorNot 5y ago

If Russia withdraws, Ukraine is going to join NATO the second it's not in hostilities. And it'll be accepted, because what Europe wants is not to have to sanction Russia so it can continue buying its gas. And that is now easier to do when Russia is locked out of being able to prosecute border wars. That's the thing: the only interest anyone had in Ukraine not being in NATO was if Russia didn't cause more problems because it wasn't. That's gone.

pydry 5y ago
>If Russia withdraws, Ukraine is going to join NATO the second it's not in hostilities. Ukraine has spent the last two years begging NATO to hurry up and approving their accession and Putin sitting on the border with tanks for three months only served to make Zelensky more insistent. I suspect NATO would be a lot more willing to let them in in one piece than if they were militarily destroyed, but who knows.
- XorNot 5y ago
  Ukraine was kept out because the theory was Putin would leave them be (since he kept saying that was the issue), and that that would be better for everyone. But Putin has shot the hostage now: Russia occupying Ukraine means Russia has a NATO border anyway, Europe has a refugee crisis again, and no one can sit around and just get rich off of gas pipelines.
  - pydry 5y ago
    Ukraine wasnt "kept out". They just hadnt progressed to full membership yet. NATO had already expressed its desire quite clearly both in Bucharest in 2008 and in Brussels in 2021 to put and keep Ukraine on the path to full membership. Putin's gamble is that reducing the country to rubble now makes it unviable as a member and hence lowers the likelihood of him ending up like Gadaffi and Russia ending up like Libya. It could backfire and it may be the worst gamble anybody ever made but it's not irrational.
    - snovv_crash 5y ago
      Putin ending up like Gadaffi and Russia like Libya was never going to happen, because Russia has nukes. Just like the US hasn't taken out the Pakistani government despite them literally harbouring Osama Bin Laden.

by XorNot 5y ago

pydry 5y ago

>If Russia withdraws, Ukraine is going to join NATO the second it's not in hostilities. Ukraine has spent the last two years begging NATO to hurry up and approving their accession and Putin sitting on the border with tanks for three months only served to make Zelensky more insistent. I suspect NATO would be a lot more willing to let them in in one piece than if they were militarily destroyed, but who knows.

XorNot 5y ago
Ukraine was kept out because the theory was Putin would leave them be (since he kept saying that was the issue), and that that would be better for everyone. But Putin has shot the hostage now: Russia occupying Ukraine means Russia has a NATO border anyway, Europe has a refugee crisis again, and no one can sit around and just get rich off of gas pipelines.
- pydry 5y ago
  Ukraine wasnt "kept out". They just hadnt progressed to full membership yet. NATO had already expressed its desire quite clearly both in Bucharest in 2008 and in Brussels in 2021 to put and keep Ukraine on the path to full membership. Putin's gamble is that reducing the country to rubble now makes it unviable as a member and hence lowers the likelihood of him ending up like Gadaffi and Russia ending up like Libya. It could backfire and it may be the worst gamble anybody ever made but it's not irrational.
  - snovv_crash 5y ago
    Putin ending up like Gadaffi and Russia like Libya was never going to happen, because Russia has nukes. Just like the US hasn't taken out the Pakistani government despite them literally harbouring Osama Bin Laden.