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I'm pretty sure Russia considers the price of Finland and Sweden joining NATO to be well worth the price of Ukraine never joining. Ukraine's border is much mor

by pydry 5y ago

I'm pretty sure Russia considers the price of Finland and Sweden joining NATO to be well worth the price of Ukraine never joining. Ukraine's border is much more significant than Finland's.

belter 5y ago
But the border of Finland is like 50 miles from St. Petersburg...the city of the Czar's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg
- pydry 5y ago
  It's not terrain you ever want to be invading through, though. Check out the "winter war". Invading would be a crapshoot both ways. The Ukrainian border has no geographic features that would impede an invasion though, and would let NATO cut Russia off from its oil fields, form a land bridge to the caspian sea and cut Russia off from the black sea entirely all within about a day. Its strategic significance cant be underestimated.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    You don't need to invade, it's within artillery range
- foogazi 5y ago
  > But the border of Finland is like 50 miles from St. Petersburg...the city of the Czar's Yes but it doesn’t go anywhere Look at Ukraine and Poland on the map - they can close off Russia to Europe
XorNot 5y ago
If Russia withdraws, Ukraine is going to join NATO the second it's not in hostilities. And it'll be accepted, because what Europe wants is not to have to sanction Russia so it can continue buying its gas. And that is now easier to do when Russia is locked out of being able to prosecute border wars. That's the thing: the only interest anyone had in Ukraine not being in NATO was if Russia didn't cause more problems because it wasn't. That's gone.
- pydry 5y ago
  >If Russia withdraws, Ukraine is going to join NATO the second it's not in hostilities. Ukraine has spent the last two years begging NATO to hurry up and approving their accession and Putin sitting on the border with tanks for three months only served to make Zelensky more insistent. I suspect NATO would be a lot more willing to let them in in one piece than if they were militarily destroyed, but who knows.
  - XorNot 5y ago
    Ukraine was kept out because the theory was Putin would leave them be (since he kept saying that was the issue), and that that would be better for everyone. But Putin has shot the hostage now: Russia occupying Ukraine means Russia has a NATO border anyway, Europe has a refugee crisis again, and no one can sit around and just get rich off of gas pipelines.
    - pydry 5y ago
      Ukraine wasnt "kept out". They just hadnt progressed to full membership yet. NATO had already expressed its desire quite clearly both in Bucharest in 2008 and in Brussels in 2021 to put and keep Ukraine on the path to full membership. Putin's gamble is that reducing the country to rubble now makes it unviable as a member and hence lowers the likelihood of him ending up like Gadaffi and Russia ending up like Libya. It could backfire and it may be the worst gamble anybody ever made but it's not irrational.
      - snovv_crash 5y ago
        Putin ending up like Gadaffi and Russia like Libya was never going to happen, because Russia has nukes. Just like the US hasn't taken out the Pakistani government despite them literally harbouring Osama Bin Laden.

by pydry 5y ago

I'm pretty sure Russia considers the price of Finland and Sweden joining NATO to be well worth the price of Ukraine never joining. Ukraine's border is much more significant than Finland's.

belter 5y ago

But the border of Finland is like 50 miles from St. Petersburg...the city of the Czar's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg

pydry 5y ago
It's not terrain you ever want to be invading through, though. Check out the "winter war". Invading would be a crapshoot both ways. The Ukrainian border has no geographic features that would impede an invasion though, and would let NATO cut Russia off from its oil fields, form a land bridge to the caspian sea and cut Russia off from the black sea entirely all within about a day. Its strategic significance cant be underestimated.
- sofixa 5y ago
  You don't need to invade, it's within artillery range
foogazi 5y ago
> But the border of Finland is like 50 miles from St. Petersburg...the city of the Czar's Yes but it doesn’t go anywhere Look at Ukraine and Poland on the map - they can close off Russia to Europe

XorNot 5y ago

If Russia withdraws, Ukraine is going to join NATO the second it's not in hostilities. And it'll be accepted, because what Europe wants is not to have to sanction Russia so it can continue buying its gas. And that is now easier to do when Russia is locked out of being able to prosecute border wars. That's the thing: the only interest anyone had in Ukraine not being in NATO was if Russia didn't cause more problems because it wasn't. That's gone.

pydry 5y ago
>If Russia withdraws, Ukraine is going to join NATO the second it's not in hostilities. Ukraine has spent the last two years begging NATO to hurry up and approving their accession and Putin sitting on the border with tanks for three months only served to make Zelensky more insistent. I suspect NATO would be a lot more willing to let them in in one piece than if they were militarily destroyed, but who knows.
- XorNot 5y ago
  Ukraine was kept out because the theory was Putin would leave them be (since he kept saying that was the issue), and that that would be better for everyone. But Putin has shot the hostage now: Russia occupying Ukraine means Russia has a NATO border anyway, Europe has a refugee crisis again, and no one can sit around and just get rich off of gas pipelines.
  - pydry 5y ago
    Ukraine wasnt "kept out". They just hadnt progressed to full membership yet. NATO had already expressed its desire quite clearly both in Bucharest in 2008 and in Brussels in 2021 to put and keep Ukraine on the path to full membership. Putin's gamble is that reducing the country to rubble now makes it unviable as a member and hence lowers the likelihood of him ending up like Gadaffi and Russia ending up like Libya. It could backfire and it may be the worst gamble anybody ever made but it's not irrational.
    - snovv_crash 5y ago
      Putin ending up like Gadaffi and Russia like Libya was never going to happen, because Russia has nukes. Just like the US hasn't taken out the Pakistani government despite them literally harbouring Osama Bin Laden.