5 ms·

Which point did Russia make exactly, if this causes Finland and Sweden to join NATO?

belter 5y ago
They better hurry: "Four Russian fighter jets violate Swedish airspace over Baltic Sea" https://www.thelocal.se/20220302/four-russian-fighter-jets-violate-swedish-airspace-over-baltic-sea/ https://www.thelocal.se/20220302/four-russian-fighter-jets-v...
- stefanfisk 5y ago
  They do that all the time.
  - iso1631 5y ago
    https://theaviationist.com/2014/09/19/su-24-violated-swedish-airspace/ https://theaviationist.com/2014/09/19/su-24-violated-swedish... for example They also violate NATO airspace https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-fighter-jet-violates-nato-airspace/ https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-fighter-jet-violates... And more https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29956277 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29956277
  - emj 5y ago
    It's quite rare, it makes headlines everytime they do it. If you think that it's a common occurence and just shrug you shoulders then you are wrong. Especially since it was political this time.
- marginalia_nu 5y ago
  To be fair this type of border probing is something that's happened every now and then since the cold war.
  - belter 5y ago
    Yes but the timing here is not an accident. Four airplanes at the same time lost of where they are?
    - daneel_w 5y ago
      The timing of these regular border transgressions, or the simulated bombing runs on radar stations along the Swedish coastline, have never been accidents. They always follow Swedish political decisions and statements that disgruntle the Kremlin.
    - marginalia_nu 5y ago
      Yeah I don't really think it's ever been an accident.
    - marvin 5y ago
      This stuff happens all the time in Scandinavia. The timing for the deliberate airspace violation is definitely on purpose, but Russia has been probing the airspace boundaries of Sweden, Finland and Norway like clockwork since the 1960s. It's just a minor escalation of the play-fighting their doctrine dictates.
    - nso 5y ago
      It is very frequent, even in Norway. It's data mining, probing for response time and response type.
    - cipher_system 5y ago
      There was a military exercise with Sweden and Finland in that region at that time, they could have just wanted to have a little look and see and their signal recon from a distance probably sucks like everything else. It's of course provocative but still less than 2013 when 4 fighter jets and 2 bombers flew in attack formation against Sweden in a simulated nuclear attack.
- audunw 5y ago
  Sweden and Finland may not be in NATO yet, but still, if Russia moves on those countries, NATO is much more likely to get involved than with Ukraine. Even without NATO, Russia can't afford to engage Finland and Sweden in the coming years.
  - modo_mario 5y ago
    People forget that the EU has it's own mutual defence clause that calls everyone into war.
pydry 5y ago
I'm pretty sure Russia considers the price of Finland and Sweden joining NATO to be well worth the price of Ukraine never joining. Ukraine's border is much more significant than Finland's.
- belter 5y ago
  But the border of Finland is like 50 miles from St. Petersburg...the city of the Czar's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg
  - pydry 5y ago
    It's not terrain you ever want to be invading through, though. Check out the "winter war". Invading would be a crapshoot both ways. The Ukrainian border has no geographic features that would impede an invasion though, and would let NATO cut Russia off from its oil fields, form a land bridge to the caspian sea and cut Russia off from the black sea entirely all within about a day. Its strategic significance cant be underestimated.
    - sofixa 5y ago
      You don't need to invade, it's within artillery range
  - foogazi 5y ago
    > But the border of Finland is like 50 miles from St. Petersburg...the city of the Czar's Yes but it doesn’t go anywhere Look at Ukraine and Poland on the map - they can close off Russia to Europe
- XorNot 5y ago
  If Russia withdraws, Ukraine is going to join NATO the second it's not in hostilities. And it'll be accepted, because what Europe wants is not to have to sanction Russia so it can continue buying its gas. And that is now easier to do when Russia is locked out of being able to prosecute border wars. That's the thing: the only interest anyone had in Ukraine not being in NATO was if Russia didn't cause more problems because it wasn't. That's gone.

They better hurry: "Four Russian fighter jets violate Swedish airspace over Baltic Sea" https://www.thelocal.se/20220302/four-russian-fighter-jets-violate-swedish-airspace-over-baltic-sea/ https://www.thelocal.se/20220302/four-russian-fighter-jets-v...

stefanfisk 5y ago
They do that all the time.
- iso1631 5y ago
  https://theaviationist.com/2014/09/19/su-24-violated-swedish-airspace/ https://theaviationist.com/2014/09/19/su-24-violated-swedish... for example They also violate NATO airspace https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-fighter-jet-violates-nato-airspace/ https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-fighter-jet-violates... And more https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29956277 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29956277
- emj 5y ago
  It's quite rare, it makes headlines everytime they do it. If you think that it's a common occurence and just shrug you shoulders then you are wrong. Especially since it was political this time.
marginalia_nu 5y ago
To be fair this type of border probing is something that's happened every now and then since the cold war.
- belter 5y ago
  Yes but the timing here is not an accident. Four airplanes at the same time lost of where they are?
  - daneel_w 5y ago
    The timing of these regular border transgressions, or the simulated bombing runs on radar stations along the Swedish coastline, have never been accidents. They always follow Swedish political decisions and statements that disgruntle the Kremlin.
  - marginalia_nu 5y ago
    Yeah I don't really think it's ever been an accident.
  - marvin 5y ago
    This stuff happens all the time in Scandinavia. The timing for the deliberate airspace violation is definitely on purpose, but Russia has been probing the airspace boundaries of Sweden, Finland and Norway like clockwork since the 1960s. It's just a minor escalation of the play-fighting their doctrine dictates.
  - nso 5y ago
    It is very frequent, even in Norway. It's data mining, probing for response time and response type.
  - cipher_system 5y ago
    There was a military exercise with Sweden and Finland in that region at that time, they could have just wanted to have a little look and see and their signal recon from a distance probably sucks like everything else. It's of course provocative but still less than 2013 when 4 fighter jets and 2 bombers flew in attack formation against Sweden in a simulated nuclear attack.
audunw 5y ago
Sweden and Finland may not be in NATO yet, but still, if Russia moves on those countries, NATO is much more likely to get involved than with Ukraine. Even without NATO, Russia can't afford to engage Finland and Sweden in the coming years.
- modo_mario 5y ago
  People forget that the EU has it's own mutual defence clause that calls everyone into war.

pydry 5y ago

I'm pretty sure Russia considers the price of Finland and Sweden joining NATO to be well worth the price of Ukraine never joining. Ukraine's border is much more significant than Finland's.

belter 5y ago
But the border of Finland is like 50 miles from St. Petersburg...the city of the Czar's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg
- pydry 5y ago
  It's not terrain you ever want to be invading through, though. Check out the "winter war". Invading would be a crapshoot both ways. The Ukrainian border has no geographic features that would impede an invasion though, and would let NATO cut Russia off from its oil fields, form a land bridge to the caspian sea and cut Russia off from the black sea entirely all within about a day. Its strategic significance cant be underestimated.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    You don't need to invade, it's within artillery range
- foogazi 5y ago
  > But the border of Finland is like 50 miles from St. Petersburg...the city of the Czar's Yes but it doesn’t go anywhere Look at Ukraine and Poland on the map - they can close off Russia to Europe
XorNot 5y ago
If Russia withdraws, Ukraine is going to join NATO the second it's not in hostilities. And it'll be accepted, because what Europe wants is not to have to sanction Russia so it can continue buying its gas. And that is now easier to do when Russia is locked out of being able to prosecute border wars. That's the thing: the only interest anyone had in Ukraine not being in NATO was if Russia didn't cause more problems because it wasn't. That's gone.