5 ms·

In the long run, even if they win (and that's a pretty big if), they'll have to: 1) Neutralize and disarm the "territorial defence" militias who currently have

In the long run, even if they win (and that's a pretty big if), they'll have to: 1) Neutralize and disarm the "territorial defence" militias who currently have about 30K assault rifles. 2) Maintain police precence on a large and hostile territory. 3) Provide food, shelter, and medical aid to thousands, if not tens of thousands of people displaced by the war. And they'll have to do that without oil and gas money, and without western medical supplies (which I assume will not be readily available anymore).

jmpman 5y ago
Isn’t Western Europe still taking Russian oil and gas? Why wouldn’t Ukraine attack the Russian gas pipelines? I understand that a conventional strike with an army is never going to happen, but there are many other options.
- MrDisposable 5y ago
  Yes they still buy our oil and gas, and neither side attacks the pipeline despite the war, but I think it's a matter of time. In a couple of years Europe will stop buying our energy, but the consequences of this war (police presence, peacekeeping, rebuilding) will last for decades.
- pseudo0 5y ago
  If they blow up the gas pipelines that transit Ukraine, Europe would be forced to turn on Nord Stream 2, which is 100% complete and just waiting for regulatory approval. Then Ukraine would be cut out entirely. It's in their best interest to leave the pipelines alone.
  - martin_a 5y ago
    > Europe would be forced to turn on Nord Stream 2, which is 100% complete and just waiting for regulatory approval. Nord Stream 2 is history. The company behind it went bankrupt two days ago or sth. like this. Everybody who still held to that project in Germany has turned it down. Nord Stream 2 won't happen, instead NLG from Saudi Arabia seems to be a thing now, anything but supporting Russia and its war. Also, Germany declared that it wants to be energy-independent by 2035, 15 years earlier than planned as a result of the Russian aggression.
    - pseudo0 5y ago
      The pipeline is still sitting there ready to go. I agree that it is highly unlikely to get used at this point, but if hypothetically Ukraine started blowing up pipelines, I don't think Europe would have much of a choice. It would be hard to stand on moral principle when elderly people are freezing to death and there are rolling brownouts.
      - FrozenSynapse 5y ago
        winter is over
        foxyv 5y ago
        Winter is coming.
      - jmpman 5y ago
        You’re right, it’s just sitting there, on the bottom of the ocean, running for hundreds of miles, undefended.
  - jmpman 5y ago
    I’m not suggesting Ukraine would do it now. But there are going to be 40M people with lost loved ones who are speak Russian, look like the local population, and realize that the way to exact revenge is through pipeline sabotage. Destroy the pipelines and you’ve destroyed 50% of the Russian GDP.
  - jmpman 5y ago
    Why would Ukraine leave the pipelines alone? There will no longer be a freely elected government in Ukraine. None of the profit of the pipeline will go towards Ukraine once they’re a puppet state. As for Nord Stream 2, a small underwater autonomous vehicle could easily be built in a Ukrainian refuge’s garage in Poland. Russia has underestimated how easily attacks can be performed by individual actors, who are properly motivated, against thousand mile long soft targets.
- chewz 5y ago
  > Isn’t Western Europe still taking Russian oil and gas? Not really. It is still possible technicaly but traders are afraid of buying / making market as they predict sanctions to escalate and traders could be left with unsellable assets on their hands. The price of ural went as low as 20 dollars per barel (with 115 dollars for WTI and Brent) So the only country that is at the moment actively contracting ural (Russian brand of crude oil) is India. Shame on you India... China scooped one or two tankers but that's it. Also shipping companies aren't waiting for sanctions and refuse to contract Russian exports... https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-scrambles-to-maintain-oil-sales-life-blood-of-economy-11646156655 https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-scrambles-to-maintain-oi... https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shipping-isnt-waiting-for-sanctions-its-refusing-to-move-russian-cargo https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shipping-isnt-waiting-for-...
credit_guy 5y ago
Unfortunately, Russia knows very, very well how to deal with this. 1. all citizens in the conquered territories will need a new id card. That card will be required everywhere. You want to send your kids to school, you need the card. You want to take a subway, you need the card. You want to buy groceries, use the ATM machine, the internet, pay your bills, make a phone call, you need your card. 2. the card will need to be re-validated periodically. At the time you need to make an attestation that you don't know the location of any hidden weapon, or any resistance fighter, or foreign agent, etc. The penalty for lying would be jail. 3. set up a system of informants. The rewards for information don't even have to be monetary, it could be: if you want your brother out of jail, you need to tell us 3 useful pieces of information. We decide what we consider to be useful. How do I know Russia can do all these things? Because Russia (Soviet Union at the time) conquered my Eastern European country right after WW2, and the resistance was minimal. A country with millions of weapons (WW2 just ended), with forests, mountains, lots of places to hide. Well, guerilla warfare still requires you to eat. You can hide in a forest, but from time to time you need to go down to the village. If one person informs, you're finished. You think Russia doesn't know how to do what the Soviet Union did in '45-'48? They lost the institutional memory? You haven't been paying attention. Putin is ex-KGB. As we speak, he's putting children (!!) in jail for going to a protest with their parents. Why didn't this work in Afghanistan ? Because Afghanistan is quite different. People don't live in apartment buildings (well, some do, but most not). They know each other. Internet, subways, grocery stores, are nice, but not essential for many, many people. Informants work both ways. The reprisals from the resistance can be worse than those from the occupiers. Etc, etc. This is not racism. Afghani people are absolutely the same as Ukrainian people, or like me and you. They bleed just as much when you put a bullet in them, and dislike that just as much. But the bullet can come from more places. If the Ukrainian resistance were to have an iota of a chance of success, the resistance fighters should be willing to shoot their compatriots who inform on them. The Taliban were willing to do just that.
- murderinc 5y ago
  One could setup an anonymous tip line on Signal and be done with it. Resistance would have to setup operations to flush out moles with false intelligence at this point.
Qem 5y ago
They can split the country in East Ukraine and West Ukraine, so they can accomplish those things in a area that fits their budget.

jmpman 5y ago

Isn’t Western Europe still taking Russian oil and gas? Why wouldn’t Ukraine attack the Russian gas pipelines? I understand that a conventional strike with an army is never going to happen, but there are many other options.

MrDisposable 5y ago
Yes they still buy our oil and gas, and neither side attacks the pipeline despite the war, but I think it's a matter of time. In a couple of years Europe will stop buying our energy, but the consequences of this war (police presence, peacekeeping, rebuilding) will last for decades.
pseudo0 5y ago
If they blow up the gas pipelines that transit Ukraine, Europe would be forced to turn on Nord Stream 2, which is 100% complete and just waiting for regulatory approval. Then Ukraine would be cut out entirely. It's in their best interest to leave the pipelines alone.
- martin_a 5y ago
  > Europe would be forced to turn on Nord Stream 2, which is 100% complete and just waiting for regulatory approval. Nord Stream 2 is history. The company behind it went bankrupt two days ago or sth. like this. Everybody who still held to that project in Germany has turned it down. Nord Stream 2 won't happen, instead NLG from Saudi Arabia seems to be a thing now, anything but supporting Russia and its war. Also, Germany declared that it wants to be energy-independent by 2035, 15 years earlier than planned as a result of the Russian aggression.
  - pseudo0 5y ago
    The pipeline is still sitting there ready to go. I agree that it is highly unlikely to get used at this point, but if hypothetically Ukraine started blowing up pipelines, I don't think Europe would have much of a choice. It would be hard to stand on moral principle when elderly people are freezing to death and there are rolling brownouts.
    - FrozenSynapse 5y ago
      winter is over
      - foxyv 5y ago
        Winter is coming.
    - jmpman 5y ago
      You’re right, it’s just sitting there, on the bottom of the ocean, running for hundreds of miles, undefended.
- jmpman 5y ago
  I’m not suggesting Ukraine would do it now. But there are going to be 40M people with lost loved ones who are speak Russian, look like the local population, and realize that the way to exact revenge is through pipeline sabotage. Destroy the pipelines and you’ve destroyed 50% of the Russian GDP.
- jmpman 5y ago
  Why would Ukraine leave the pipelines alone? There will no longer be a freely elected government in Ukraine. None of the profit of the pipeline will go towards Ukraine once they’re a puppet state. As for Nord Stream 2, a small underwater autonomous vehicle could easily be built in a Ukrainian refuge’s garage in Poland. Russia has underestimated how easily attacks can be performed by individual actors, who are properly motivated, against thousand mile long soft targets.
chewz 5y ago
> Isn’t Western Europe still taking Russian oil and gas? Not really. It is still possible technicaly but traders are afraid of buying / making market as they predict sanctions to escalate and traders could be left with unsellable assets on their hands. The price of ural went as low as 20 dollars per barel (with 115 dollars for WTI and Brent) So the only country that is at the moment actively contracting ural (Russian brand of crude oil) is India. Shame on you India... China scooped one or two tankers but that's it. Also shipping companies aren't waiting for sanctions and refuse to contract Russian exports... https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-scrambles-to-maintain-oil-sales-life-blood-of-economy-11646156655 https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-scrambles-to-maintain-oi... https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shipping-isnt-waiting-for-sanctions-its-refusing-to-move-russian-cargo https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shipping-isnt-waiting-for-...

credit_guy 5y ago

Unfortunately, Russia knows very, very well how to deal with this. 1. all citizens in the conquered territories will need a new id card. That card will be required everywhere. You want to send your kids to school, you need the card. You want to take a subway, you need the card. You want to buy groceries, use the ATM machine, the internet, pay your bills, make a phone call, you need your card. 2. the card will need to be re-validated periodically. At the time you need to make an attestation that you don't know the location of any hidden weapon, or any resistance fighter, or foreign agent, etc. The penalty for lying would be jail. 3. set up a system of informants. The rewards for information don't even have to be monetary, it could be: if you want your brother out of jail, you need to tell us 3 useful pieces of information. We decide what we consider to be useful. How do I know Russia can do all these things? Because Russia (Soviet Union at the time) conquered my Eastern European country right after WW2, and the resistance was minimal. A country with millions of weapons (WW2 just ended), with forests, mountains, lots of places to hide. Well, guerilla warfare still requires you to eat. You can hide in a forest, but from time to time you need to go down to the village. If one person informs, you're finished. You think Russia doesn't know how to do what the Soviet Union did in '45-'48? They lost the institutional memory? You haven't been paying attention. Putin is ex-KGB. As we speak, he's putting children (!!) in jail for going to a protest with their parents. Why didn't this work in Afghanistan ? Because Afghanistan is quite different. People don't live in apartment buildings (well, some do, but most not). They know each other. Internet, subways, grocery stores, are nice, but not essential for many, many people. Informants work both ways. The reprisals from the resistance can be worse than those from the occupiers. Etc, etc. This is not racism. Afghani people are absolutely the same as Ukrainian people, or like me and you. They bleed just as much when you put a bullet in them, and dislike that just as much. But the bullet can come from more places. If the Ukrainian resistance were to have an iota of a chance of success, the resistance fighters should be willing to shoot their compatriots who inform on them. The Taliban were willing to do just that.

murderinc 5y ago
One could setup an anonymous tip line on Signal and be done with it. Resistance would have to setup operations to flush out moles with false intelligence at this point.

Qem 5y ago

They can split the country in East Ukraine and West Ukraine, so they can accomplish those things in a area that fits their budget.