4 ms·

if that's true, then MAD was a pointless/false doctrine. The point of MAD is that people want to live. If the choice is denuke and live one way or use nukes a

if that's true, then MAD was a pointless/false doctrine. The point of MAD is that people want to live. If the choice is denuke and live one way or use nukes and everyone dies, then MAD was false.

vkou 5y ago
How exactly do you plan to make denuking the only possible choice? With what stick? Starting a nuclear war? Anything short of that isn't big enough. A million years of sanctions isn't going to be sufficient to accomplish that, especially when China is still available as a trading partner. It might result in civil unrest, and (incredibly unlikely, but sure, pigs could fly) a coup, but you won't be able to pry the nuclear football out of the fingers of whomever inherits the rubble of the Kremlin. The United States is more likely to give up its nuclear arsenal than Russia is. You're confusing what you want with what can happen. That's not how geopolitics, negotiations, or questions of power work.
- compsciphd 5y ago
  as I said, they will end up being a chinese vassal state othewise. as they will have to jump when china says jump. The Q is what matters more to them, being mostly free to chart their own path, or having nukes but having to follow chinese orders.
  - dirtyid 5y ago
    Iran is charting their own path fine after rebuilding / structural adjustment of their economy after 10 years of current RU tier sanctions. Iranian economy has become resilient to the point they currently feel like they are negotiating from position of strength at JCPOA. Of course they're still broke as fuck, but they've reached stagnant economic equilibrium which is not broke enough to prevent them from being a major regional player. All things considered RU is much better positioned continue pursuing their own interests, assuming the sanctions hold.
    - compsciphd 5y ago
      the west hasn't sanctioned Iran in anywhere near the same way as the current Russian sanctions. When trumped tried to take back the deal, Europe somewhat ignored him.
      - dirtyid 5y ago
        >anywhere near RU sanctions are being compared to Iranian sanctions because they're very comparable, with similar evasion routes - turning east. > Europe somewhat ignored And prior to Trump/JCPOA they didn't. Iran experienced several shocks of ramping sanctions for around a decade including by EU that was extremely comprehensive. As in SWIFT tier in practice. RU at least has strategic partner in PRC interested in propping it long term. There's also lots of other large neutral markets that hasn't signalled willingness to ditch RU resources and potentially UKR resources under RU. And again, this is assuming RU sanctions will last during negotiations to end the war, not to mention RU hasn't retaliated meaningfully - it's conceivable RU economy the size of Spain gets crushed to size of Turkey (half) but RU can afflict disproportionate damage in other way, i.e. cyber disruptions that cause economic disruptions which will cause the EU/US to loose in aggregate more than RU.
  - fleshfly 5y ago

if that's true, then MAD was a pointless/false doctrine. The point of MAD is that people want to live. If the choice is denuke and live one way or use nukes and everyone dies, then MAD was false.

vkou 5y ago

How exactly do you plan to make denuking the only possible choice? With what stick? Starting a nuclear war? Anything short of that isn't big enough. A million years of sanctions isn't going to be sufficient to accomplish that, especially when China is still available as a trading partner. It might result in civil unrest, and (incredibly unlikely, but sure, pigs could fly) a coup, but you won't be able to pry the nuclear football out of the fingers of whomever inherits the rubble of the Kremlin. The United States is more likely to give up its nuclear arsenal than Russia is. You're confusing what you want with what can happen. That's not how geopolitics, negotiations, or questions of power work.

compsciphd 5y ago
as I said, they will end up being a chinese vassal state othewise. as they will have to jump when china says jump. The Q is what matters more to them, being mostly free to chart their own path, or having nukes but having to follow chinese orders.
- dirtyid 5y ago
  Iran is charting their own path fine after rebuilding / structural adjustment of their economy after 10 years of current RU tier sanctions. Iranian economy has become resilient to the point they currently feel like they are negotiating from position of strength at JCPOA. Of course they're still broke as fuck, but they've reached stagnant economic equilibrium which is not broke enough to prevent them from being a major regional player. All things considered RU is much better positioned continue pursuing their own interests, assuming the sanctions hold.
  - compsciphd 5y ago
    the west hasn't sanctioned Iran in anywhere near the same way as the current Russian sanctions. When trumped tried to take back the deal, Europe somewhat ignored him.
    - dirtyid 5y ago
      >anywhere near RU sanctions are being compared to Iranian sanctions because they're very comparable, with similar evasion routes - turning east. > Europe somewhat ignored And prior to Trump/JCPOA they didn't. Iran experienced several shocks of ramping sanctions for around a decade including by EU that was extremely comprehensive. As in SWIFT tier in practice. RU at least has strategic partner in PRC interested in propping it long term. There's also lots of other large neutral markets that hasn't signalled willingness to ditch RU resources and potentially UKR resources under RU. And again, this is assuming RU sanctions will last during negotiations to end the war, not to mention RU hasn't retaliated meaningfully - it's conceivable RU economy the size of Spain gets crushed to size of Turkey (half) but RU can afflict disproportionate damage in other way, i.e. cyber disruptions that cause economic disruptions which will cause the EU/US to loose in aggregate more than RU.
- fleshfly 5y ago