The win condition for Russia is: 1) Ukraine fails to (independently) develop its recently discovered Black Sea oil/gas reserves, and fails in general to prospe

The win condition for Russia is: 1) Ukraine fails to (independently) develop its recently discovered Black Sea oil/gas reserves, and fails in general to prosper as a democratic nation 2) Europe continues to buy oil/gas from Russia. Therefore: The military win condition is "make a mess". The diplomatic win condition is "get as many sanctions lifted as possible".