4 ms·
If the west is willing to keep the economic sanctions on (and that's a big if). Russia as we knew it is over. There should be a few requirements for removal o
by compsciphd 5y ago
If the west is willing to keep the economic sanctions on (and that's a big if). Russia as we knew it is over. There should be a few requirements for removal of sanctions. (in no order)
1) russian denuclearification (due to using the threat of nuclear weapons as an umbrella over a conventional war)
2) agree to remove themselves from UN Security Council as a permanent member (due to invading another sovereign state with basically complete worldwide condemnation, one can try to equate it to US moves, but none of them have been as universally condenmed, so yes, quantity matters in this regard).
3) complete pullback from Ukraine
4) reparations paid to Ukraine.
5) I've even argue to having to give up their european enclave.
if they refuse, they will cease to be effectively an independent state and will simple become a chinese vassal state.
so the Q is, what matters more to Russian pride. being an independent state that can mostly chart one's own destiny, but being a pale remnant of what they once were. Or having fake power but really simply being under the total control of china.
- netsharc 5y agoGeez, let's be realistic, no leader would be able to swallow their pride and agree to your points, they'd rather pretend to have some pride left and go to China. If they agreed to those points, their destiny will be determined by "the West", which may look pure and good compared to Putin, but let's not pretend the US and EU are corruption-free, the rich and corporations also have outsized influence here.
- vkou 5y agoAnyone who thinks Russia will denuke is insane. It will use those weapons long before it will ever think of giving them up.
- compsciphd 5y agoif that's true, then MAD was a pointless/false doctrine. The point of MAD is that people want to live. If the choice is denuke and live one way or use nukes and everyone dies, then MAD was false.
- vkou 5y agoHow exactly do you plan to make denuking the only possible choice? With what stick? Starting a nuclear war? Anything short of that isn't big enough. A million years of sanctions isn't going to be sufficient to accomplish that, especially when China is still available as a trading partner. It might result in civil unrest, and (incredibly unlikely, but sure, pigs could fly) a coup, but you won't be able to pry the nuclear football out of the fingers of whomever inherits the rubble of the Kremlin. The United States is more likely to give up its nuclear arsenal than Russia is. You're confusing what you want with what can happen. That's not how geopolitics, negotiations, or questions of power work.
- compsciphd 5y agoas I said, they will end up being a chinese vassal state othewise. as they will have to jump when china says jump. The Q is what matters more to them, being mostly free to chart their own path, or having nukes but having to follow chinese orders.
- dirtyid 5y agoIran is charting their own path fine after rebuilding / structural adjustment of their economy after 10 years of current RU tier sanctions. Iranian economy has become resilient to the point they currently feel like they are negotiating from position of strength at JCPOA. Of course they're still broke as fuck, but they've reached stagnant economic equilibrium which is not broke enough to prevent them from being a major regional player. All things considered RU is much better positioned continue pursuing their own interests, assuming the sanctions hold.
- compsciphd 5y agothe west hasn't sanctioned Iran in anywhere near the same way as the current Russian sanctions. When trumped tried to take back the deal, Europe somewhat ignored him.
- 5y ago
- lobocinza 5y agoThis war wouldn't happen if Ukraine still had nukes.
- asimpletune 5y agoMy question is why would anyone agree to this if they have nuclear weapons? Like, the USA (and Israel) have spent an enormous of effort and money to stop a "rogue" state like Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities, but it seems that in the last week Russia has seemingly transformed into said rogue state.
- vkou 5y agoWaging offensive war for bullshit reasons isn't sufficient criteria to be a rogue state. If it did... I have a long list.
- dTal 5y agoDoes routinely vaguely threatening nuclear attack as a form of diplomatic extortion qualify? The only other state I can think of that does that is North Korea.
- seer 5y agoThere can always be a revolution. I bet the international community will be a lot more lenient if the new government had the appearance of making russia a functioning democratic state (regardless of whether that was actually the case) Also continuing sanctions will probably require softening the stance over other places like Iran. If they themselves are savvy enough to catch this windfall history might chart quite an interesting different coarse.
- compsciphd 5y agoIf Iran agreed to give up nukes and stop exporting terrorism (or freedom fighters if one wants to call them that, but I don't see how one can justify bombing jewish community centers in argentina as freedom fighting) then they will quickly have sanctions removed from them. I'd argue that the russian's overt use of the nuke threat is going to make countries more hardline in the near future on Iran's nuke ambitions.
- lobocinza 5y ago> reparations paid to Ukraine. Member Germany after WW1?