3 ms·

The end game looks like WW3 in ten years started by the China-Russia-NK alliance using Taiwan as a pretense. The real reason will be the desire to change the or

by akomtu 5y ago

The end game looks like WW3 in ten years started by the China-Russia-NK alliance using Taiwan as a pretense. The real reason will be the desire to change the order of things, so China is the new capital of the world. I feel like the west is in denial right now, hoping that this far away war will get resolved by itself in a month or so.

hnbad 5y ago
> China-Russia-NK alliance > change the order of things, so China is the new capital of the world Don't be daft. China has long figured out that it's easier to subjugate the West through economical power than military power. Russia has been trying to do both and NK has been stuck with the latter due to its isolationism and pariah status. China already strongly hinted that they don't have Russia's back in this conflict and they have demonstrated that they view NK more like an underage sibling they have to rein in from time to time. There's no point in starting WW3 for China because China is already winning. The real rivalry will likely be something most Americans aren't even thinking of: India. For all the posturing, the US heavily depends on China far more than the EU ever depended on Russia.
- dirtyid 5y ago
  >most Americans aren't even thinking of: India Superpower 2020 meme aside, the geopolitical implications of a risen India is profound. Within striking range of every significant SLOC for Europe, MENA, east Africa and Asia until arctic shipping becomes viable. Perhaps the biggest strategic blunder in recent human history was carving out antagonistic Pakistan, combined with PRC influenced Myanmar which prevents land access to most of Euroasia. That said, India is reaching terminal demographics as well, and far from getting rich before getting old. And apart from all the QUAD / potential for west alignment, I think any strategic thinker outside of India with half a brain cell will want to keep India down for as long as possible if not bulkanize her.
- mschuster91 5y ago
  > China has long figured out that it's easier to subjugate the West through economical power than military power. And yet they are the world's largest army by headcount and the second largest by budget. They are absolutely going to make use of that power, the question is just when. > China already strongly hinted that they don't have Russia's back in this conflict Outwards? Yes. Everything else would be madness. Inwards? I'd guess that they aren't too unhappy. The US had already begun under Obama to shift their focus away from the Middle East and Europe to focus on China and their expansionism - now with the Ukraine crisis that one way or the other will take many years to resolve, the US will have to split attention and forces between China and whatever Russia is doing.
  - hnbad 5y ago
    > And yet they are the world's largest army by headcount and the second largest by budget. Of course. What's the point of amassing capital if you don't have the firepower to defend its interests? What do you think the US military exists for? Bringing freedom and democracy via drone strikes? Strong militaries are how you subjugate the weak and isolated, strong economies are how you subjugate the powerful and globally connected. But a strong military (or in lieu of that, a nuclear arsenal) also prevents other strong militaries from coming in and taking away your toys. > US will have to split attention and forces between China and whatever Russia is doing More importantly, Russia will come out extremely weakened from this war and with the entire West having committed to economic sanctions China will have an unbeatable upper hand as a trading partner. If Russia engages in direct conflict with the West, even better as long as things don't get out of hand.
- T-A 5y ago
  > The real rivalry will likely be something most Americans aren't even thinking of: India. You might enjoy this story then, if you haven't read it already ("2034: A Novel of the Next World War", co-authored by James Stavridis, a former supreme NATO commander): https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/54211065-2034 https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/54211065-2034

by akomtu 5y ago

hnbad 5y ago

> China-Russia-NK alliance > change the order of things, so China is the new capital of the world Don't be daft. China has long figured out that it's easier to subjugate the West through economical power than military power. Russia has been trying to do both and NK has been stuck with the latter due to its isolationism and pariah status. China already strongly hinted that they don't have Russia's back in this conflict and they have demonstrated that they view NK more like an underage sibling they have to rein in from time to time. There's no point in starting WW3 for China because China is already winning. The real rivalry will likely be something most Americans aren't even thinking of: India. For all the posturing, the US heavily depends on China far more than the EU ever depended on Russia.

dirtyid 5y ago
>most Americans aren't even thinking of: India Superpower 2020 meme aside, the geopolitical implications of a risen India is profound. Within striking range of every significant SLOC for Europe, MENA, east Africa and Asia until arctic shipping becomes viable. Perhaps the biggest strategic blunder in recent human history was carving out antagonistic Pakistan, combined with PRC influenced Myanmar which prevents land access to most of Euroasia. That said, India is reaching terminal demographics as well, and far from getting rich before getting old. And apart from all the QUAD / potential for west alignment, I think any strategic thinker outside of India with half a brain cell will want to keep India down for as long as possible if not bulkanize her.
mschuster91 5y ago
> China has long figured out that it's easier to subjugate the West through economical power than military power. And yet they are the world's largest army by headcount and the second largest by budget. They are absolutely going to make use of that power, the question is just when. > China already strongly hinted that they don't have Russia's back in this conflict Outwards? Yes. Everything else would be madness. Inwards? I'd guess that they aren't too unhappy. The US had already begun under Obama to shift their focus away from the Middle East and Europe to focus on China and their expansionism - now with the Ukraine crisis that one way or the other will take many years to resolve, the US will have to split attention and forces between China and whatever Russia is doing.
- hnbad 5y ago
  > And yet they are the world's largest army by headcount and the second largest by budget. Of course. What's the point of amassing capital if you don't have the firepower to defend its interests? What do you think the US military exists for? Bringing freedom and democracy via drone strikes? Strong militaries are how you subjugate the weak and isolated, strong economies are how you subjugate the powerful and globally connected. But a strong military (or in lieu of that, a nuclear arsenal) also prevents other strong militaries from coming in and taking away your toys. > US will have to split attention and forces between China and whatever Russia is doing More importantly, Russia will come out extremely weakened from this war and with the entire West having committed to economic sanctions China will have an unbeatable upper hand as a trading partner. If Russia engages in direct conflict with the West, even better as long as things don't get out of hand.
T-A 5y ago
> The real rivalry will likely be something most Americans aren't even thinking of: India. You might enjoy this story then, if you haven't read it already ("2034: A Novel of the Next World War", co-authored by James Stavridis, a former supreme NATO commander): https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/54211065-2034 https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/54211065-2034