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No, for two reasons. One: the "glaciers" - I assume you mean something like the Greenland ice sheet here - aren't actually shrinking. See for yourself, data di
by native_samples 5y ago
No, for two reasons.
One: the "glaciers" - I assume you mean something like the Greenland ice sheet here - aren't actually shrinking. See for yourself, data direct from the observation satellites:
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_combine_SM_acc_EN_20220302.png http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_comb...
Note that accumulated surface mass balance for both 2021-2022 so far, and for 2020-2021, is pretty much bob on the 1981-2010 average. In fact last year it was a little over the average. You think they're massively shrinking because scientists and the media like to announce years when it's lower than average, then are silent in years when it's average or above average. This form of soft censorship makes you think they're constantly shrinking when in fact size wanders around.
Even so, we must be careful with interpreting this sort of data because they're all at it. Many claims about changes in ice depth or size are the result of ... more modelling ... which has the exact same problem as temperature modelling, it's too easy to bias in your desired direction by constantly adding convenient fixes. Exactly the same problem as seen in COVID models.
The second reason is more subtle. You refer in your comment to temperature "corrections". By definition, "correcting" observational data to make it conform to your theory (which is the effect of what they're doing) is not scientific. Scientists aren't allowed to "correct" their raw data, period, end of story. If they do it's always fraud when judged by the standards of more normal and rigorous fields. If your historical data is of poor quality then you need to admit that, add error bars and propagate them through to your final confidence intervals, then interpret the CIs honestly i.e. if the CIs are wide enough to incorporate "nothing is changing" then so be it even if that's bad for your grant approval rate.
Climatologists don't do this. Instead what happens is that they collect data, it fails to show warming, and they then spend years coming up with plausible sounding justifications for why their observations need to be changed. So they do it, but their corrections are motivated reasoning so newly collected data of course shows the same problem - no warming (hence why we see stories about the mysterious lack of warming from both 1989 and 2015 in the press, see my citations above). So they come up with yet more reasons to adjust the data and do it again.
This practice has now reached its logical conclusion: they adjust every data point every time a new data point is added. That's why NOAA call their temperature history a reconstructed dataset. They literally reconstruct it every day. Climatology is all about making predictions about temperature but literally according to them, they cannot accurately measure temperatures that were recorded last week, not even at specific weather stations. They cannot read thermometers today, but measuring the temperature of the world as it was 1000 years ago, or predicting what it will be in 100 years, no problem. Obviously no rational person can accept such a claim: it is absurd on its face.
- car_analogy 5y ago> By definition, "correcting" observational data to make it conform to your theory (which is the effect of what they're doing) is not scientific. What about corrections to compensate for known biases? Such as moving a measuring station from the cold to the hot side of a valley.
- native_samples 5y agoThat corrects data by changing the way it's collected. That's OK if it's properly documented of course, because you're improving the accuracy of your measurements. You may then have difficulties comparing the two periods but there are techniques to deal with that. Where climatologists go wrong is when they say "and now we'll rewrite the prior observations to what we think they would have been, had the weather station been there all along". That's not scientific. Consider how easy it is to make mistakes that way, or have biases in which only adjustments beneficial for your career are included. Especially when your central claim is about long term trends over time, it should be obvious why editing the past isn't allowed.