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This only makes sense under the framework of "you're negotiating with a country that is overall similar to other (western) countries in thinking/functioning" or
by catchclose8919 5y ago
This only makes sense under the framework of "you're negotiating with a country that is overall similar to other (western) countries in thinking/functioning" or worst case with a "authoritarian but rational & calculating regime that has some of the interests of its own people as core driving force" (eg. China).
We might be wrong! Even if Putin fails his successor might be even worse, and there's a weird quasi-religion thing jumping from mind to mind across Russia and not only: https://youtu.be/IAVZ3XsqIL4 https://youtu.be/IAVZ3XsqIL4 (the source is biased but can't think of a better one now).
We might be talking to something closer to a cult, and we are generally bad at dealing with these by applying western negotiation and de-escalation techniques (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waco_siege https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waco_siege). We don't want the nuclear equivalent of the Waco massacre! (Also, historically, the last "nation level cult" we've dealt with resulted in a world war, so there's a grim track record here.
Something is weird here and both sides are playing mind-games - captured Russian soldiers look like they're on acid or something, military tactics seem weird and maybe they're targeted to induce reactions that can drive behaviors more than to secure military objectives... s's not right here, this feels like neither Kosovo nor Iraq nor Syria.
We shouldn't try to out-cult a cult, that's how you get WW3. We need to figure out how to DE-BRAINWASH people and get them to negotiate constructively and FAST!*
- k__ 5y agoYou really think so? Sounds unlikely to me, Russia is an oligrarchy, even Putin said so. The elite isn't that dumb to risk their wealth for some cult.
- catchclose8919 5y agoHow much power do these oligarchs actually have? Can't they be disappeared or put in line, like Xi did with Jack Ma? Damn, we're in a weird timeline here... where russian oligarchs are actually the hope for a better solution :)